The economy slows and the war with Iran drags on.

 

It appears from what President Trump says the war with Iran is over soon, but the people who run Iran seem to think differently.

The oil markets seem to be trending down so there appears to be a disconnect between what traders think and what the Iranian government thinks.

Some of the analysts I follow think the war will continue and the price of oil could stay elevated and may not come down much.

The price of food around the world may stay high and could cause problems in the developed world.

Fertilizers arent abundant right now, so crop yields may come down.  Some crops may not even be planted in many markets.

Of course the Western World will survive and will have to pay elevated prices for awhile. Im guessing the USD may stay strong to, even if theres more money printing.

Gold may be a buy here, its come down quite a bit from its highs.

Silver too, but im less sure.

Shares could stay elevated because of the Technology boom. Still I think interest rates are more likely to go down despite what market participants think right now today.

It wouldn't surprise me if emerging markets continue to sell off this month they rally, maybe the same in Europe, in Europe im more interested in the UK and Poland, Austrian markets ect.

Value shares that pay dividends are interesting too, I think they continue to rally and pay out dividends. 

Small cap in the US but overseas will continue to do well with the help of AI and continued inflation. 

Im not sure about bonds, but emerging markets bonds and high yield bonds may do ok long term.

Theres a few closed end funds at Pimco that buy them and specialize in them and use leverage in their funds that seem to do ok over time.

There yields are 10% to 12% so maybe ok for people who want income.

If interest rates come down there cost of leverage would come down and some of the bonds could rally.

They are good at managing risk so maybe useful for some people. 

Thanks for reading.  Good luck. 

Happy Hunting.