Deflation maybe the next scare.

Deflation maybe the next scare coming. 

I expect the next few inflation prints coming will show inflation spiking up because of the wars in Russia and Iran. 

Six months from now it woulnt surprise me if long interest rates were down.

I believe the economy is slowing with high petro prices and high diesel prices and the commodity prices associated with them. Corn prices and wheat prices maybe going up and with diesel prices high, transport costs associated with them will keep grocery prices elevated. 

Still the economy is slowing and I expect interest rates over time will come down and the Fed may rates a few times but in six months may lower them faster than expected. 

I wouldn't buy bonds now but when they start trending bonds and their proxies will start to rally just not today, and six months from now is a long time.

Euro prices.

I expect the euro to eventually melt down against the dollar, same with the Yen.

Gold will probably go up even with Deflation but only time will tell.

I believe world Deflation will be met with money printing in most places in the world and because of that woulnt be surprised to see gold go up just not a lot inless you live in Japan, Europe orthe UK.

So even with many problems in the US the USD could remain elevated despite establishment people wanting it lower.

Either way I expect high asset prices over time in most of the world.

If you have access to low cost debt or leverage use it to attain assets and just wait and work your business or job and enjoy life.

Thanks for reading. 

Another letter from E.B. Tucker

I like E.B. Tucker.  He has a good letter. The letter I got before the latest was about waiting in lines.

We wait in lines nowdays to get many things but especially if you want to buy luxury watches. 

I dont want to buy a watch but know many people who do and now some watch makers make you buy the less valuable watches then you can buy the ones you want.

E.B. pointed out much of what we buy is fashionable by many people but its not what we want. We buy whats considered beautiful or fashionable by other people so dont really buy what we enjoy or want.

I think hes right, we dont really enjoy what wealth we have and spend time and money on things and experiences we dont really enjoy. 

I see people dont really enjoy the prosperity they have now. Thats the case in North America at least.

Its probably why I enjoy S.E. Asia and Latin America. 

Things dont cost much their and you can spend time in nature and really enjoy yourself. 

Its like we have built guided cages for ourselves and we dont really enjoy it much.

We seem to be going towards a different economy and culture. In twenty years it will be completely different. 

Anyhow next week is a new week for trading and investment and so far this last week and weekend, it seems the US is losing its war in the East, I mean both of them.

It will be interesting to see if the US Dollar holds its value, im curious if gold closes above its trend line. 

I see big changes in culture everywhere, Europe North America, and Asia, not sure what to make of it.

Even Doug Casey and Matt Smith are concerned with some kind of deflation and then a reflation, the times are changing. 

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

Another down day in markets.

Another down day in markets. 

The markets were mostly down today. Oil was up and some of my oil and gas shares were up.

I had a few shorts thar I closed out and added a few more shorts before the close, mostly industrials. CAT ,I shorted that too.

I closed out my platinum ETF too, made over 1% on it.

Today I sold a lot of my small caps because I think they will continue to sell off.

I think software shares will continue to rally a long with commodity stuff. Gas, Weit ect. Sprott has nuclear stuff, I cant remember the the ticker, but its yellow cake. 

I dont think the war with Russia or Iran willstop anytime soon.

The Chinese continue to but oil from the Middle East, and oil is now priced in the 90s.

So I continue to think markets will sell off and when the inflation numbers come out and inflation ticks higher I expect bonds to sell off. So expect higher interest rates.

I still dont think the Fed will raise rates but if they do, soon after they may lower them faster than people think.

Either way expect higher volatility. 

The US Doller didnt really rally much, so I expect the USD to go lower over time.

The Canadian Dollar keeps rallying against the USD despite trade sanctions and trade frictions.

The Mexican Peso and Colombian Peso are up against the US Dollar too.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading  

Holiday, markets closed.(US)

Well its Monday and the markets are closed at least in the US. Futures were open last night.

The US Dollar is weak in FX trading. I believe oil was up last night. I believe the war with Iran is on in ernest same in Russia. 

I believe the Presidents son and other administration men were in russia last night, now I believe they are in Ukraine. 

I believe both wars are not going to end. Russia appears to be winning in Ukraine, although the price for winning is high.

Iran I believe is winning too, but thats bad for Europe and the Middle East. 

Good for North America. 

Im not sure but it could be why the US dollar is headed lower at least until a crisis happens. 

Gold I think will slowly go higher, not sure about silver but woulnt be surprised if it goes higher too, along with copper and other commodities. 

I bought WEAT last week. And Natural Gas.

Even if the dollar goes higher or lower I see real assets going higher at least until there's a crisis. 

Im starting to think the Fed and Treasury wants a weak dollar, although more and more people are seeing that.

Then there is China and the AI race.

Another reason to own commodities, Gold and software shares. Software maybe considered an inflation hedge by many market participants. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

The world is changing fast.(Decentralizing)

I haven't posted in awhile. 

The markets were down Friday, gold too. Anyway I still think we will see lower rates, and a weaker USD.

The President (Trump) keeps tweeting he wants lower interest rates and a weaker dollar come what may.

Anyhow I still think we are in a reflation environment. And a reflation of the share markets. Including commoditys and gold.

The nation continues to decentralize. 

The US nation continues to decentralize among the haves and have nots, the infamous K shaped economy. 

Its similar in Europe too.

I see videos all the time of rising homelessness in Germany, Canada and the US.

The policy makers have chosen to destroy the middle classes and working classes.

So I continue to think the economy is decentralizing. I see similiar in Russia too.

As wars and inflation heat up I believe we will continue to see a loss of faith in the American Dream.

I think you will see more men and women dropping out of the workforce and working will decline. 

So inflation and tax will go up to pay for this loss of faith. 

The good news is all this new technology will create new ways of creating wealth and prosperity that governments will be hard pressed to tax or regulate.

So employers will have to offer higher wages to get employees or let in more immigrants. 

Im sure they will do both, including using robots and AI to lower employment costs.

All this could lead to lower prices, giving the government opportunities to inflate their currencies more.

Its why Gold, Bitcoin, ETH may go up alot as well as other assets.

Living in smaller cities and countries maybe more attractive going forward. 

I see more North Americans leaving for other countries.

Anyways thanks for reading.