Another mixed day in the markets.

The day in the markets isnt over yet. When the market opened many of my shorts were down and in quite a bit of profit, so I covered quite a bit, and some were up so added to my shorts.

Many dividend ETFs were down a little so I added their.

Took profit on quite a few long trades.

I think the economy will expand a little but still expect a slow down in many tech shares and layoffs from many of those companies. 

I still expect interest rates to go up a little, and similiar with gold.

Im not sure if the gold rally will last, only time will tell.

As far as the Iran war, im not sure about that either. I expect the US will walk away from it.

The war in Russia/Ukraine, Im not sure about that either. I am guessing the US will support them in words but im not sure we even have the missiles to give them.

Im not sure about Europe, it seems the young doesn't support the EUs stance on the war either.

It seems like we may have a decade of rising inflation, sinking share prices and similiar with bonds.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

Clean up day.

I sold a lot of my low performers (Shares)

Its painful to admit mistakes, and costly too. Not to mention the margin costs.

Anyways I brought my margin down quite a bit.

Time will tell if this was the right decision. I got caught not stopping out of some shorts. 

I also stopped out of other shorts not working. 

I dont like the margin costs when I get down to 80% I prefer to stay at 90% or higher.

Anyhow I expect the rally to continue and even the wars so not sure how this will work out accept that inflation will stay higher than many expect, and interest could go up soon before they come down. 

I expect gold to start performing well, probably oil shares too.

I expect reits to slowly climb higher, same with dividend paying shares, like SCHD, SCHY, and their competitors like HDV ect.

Emerging market shares are taking off too.

Thanks for reading. 

Earning report. PRGO

Its earnings season and Perrigo released earnings today and shares shot up 24%, I believe they closed 23%higher today.

They are a pharmaceutical company in Ireland and sell over the counter products in emerging markets and including the USA. 

They have bany formula facilities in the US I believe and are now past there troubles with them.

Anyhow I own a few shares and its nice to see the shares are up and the share market rally is broadening. 

Anyhow thanks for reading. 

The Taco Trade continues.

The Taco trade continues. 

Yesterday (Sunday night) Futures prices were up for most share markets. 

Most foreign currencys were down against the US Dollar, except the Yen.

I believe this is the beginning of a weak dollar policy by the US government, policy makers.

This will lead to rising share markets in the developing markets, gold markets ect.

I still think oil shares will rally. Same with reits, infrastructure shares ect.

We may see a rally in tech shares, time will tell.

I continue to believe value shares go up. Same with dividend shares.

Im starting to get bullish on gold bullion too.

If our policy is to devalue the Dollar and inflate the currency to pay for war and the welfare state, then owning gold coins held in your possession will be wise.

These policies will enrich the elites and impoverishe the lower income people but it appears thats what people will vote for and could end badly for most people. 

Thats it for now thanks for reading. 

The Spanish invasion continues.....Maybe....

So far from the videos I see the Invasion of Spain is off for now and many men who invaded gave up and are returning to Morocco. 

Others are saying its not true and there are many thousands staying and waiting to go to mainland Spain and then maybe Germany. 

I dont know but many now are awake and realize whats happening and maybe there will be major changes to the average European and we will see the withholding of consent from European voters and citizens. 

I dont know but something big may come out of this, I mean how the economy works or doesnt and maybe a decline in the Welfare State.

Its sad to see video footage of this and the lack of sympathy for Spaniards and Europeans.

At least in North America we are somewhat armed and can take action if necessary. 

We still have a somewhat productive economy, we still have cash, and States where liberty is still valued. 

Anyway I expect Europeans and UK folks to keep flooding in come what may.

Thanks for reading.

Yenagedin, JGB 4%, Ect.

Another Sunday at Micky Ds.

Most investors probably know the USDJPY plunged.

The JGBs got above 4% yields I believe. So many think its the end of the world for shares. I dont know. I will go with the trend and wait and see if this is the beginning of a trend change.

Id say we are at the point where most investors believe the Fed and its competitors overseas will inflate out of the current mess we are in and higher interest rates are here to stay at least for awhile. 

I believe we will see higher gold prices and maybe silver prices despite a slowdown in the economy. 

Its possible share prices will fall especially chip companies and AI companies but I think we maybe seeing the beginning of a bull market in value shares with dividend yields.

Even bond proxies like reits and infrastructure projects will rally and probably keep going up despite higher interest rates 

I think it maybe the same with BDCs.

Only time will tell.

With what I see in the culture at least in the United States, I believe inflation maybe backed in the cake. 

Theres a lot of fraud now and it seems many people are giving up.

In that kind of environment inflation is the option many policy makers will choose. 

I dont like this but it seems this is what voters choose.

Well tonight we will see if Mr. Trup Tacos or not.

Either way we are closer to WW3 and people cant deny it much more and something will get priced into the market. Higher gold prices?

I dont know.

Thanks for reading. 

The invasion of Spain (Ceuta)

The current and ongoing invasion of Ceuta,(Spain) is pretty interesting.

I believe Ceuta is an enclave in Morocco, that belongs to Spain.

I understand Ceuta is an tax haven for Spain but now its a landing point for poor Africans and Muslims. 

Its interesting to watch all the footage of these young men landing in Ceuta and then running from authorities and in some cases committing crimes.

There was even one young man who admitted to murder from where he came from and wanted to live in Spain and start his life over.

From the images its mostly or all young men.

These young men will be givin free housing, food and cash benefits I presume. 

When I think about it, they havent paid any tax in Spain or the EU but will be givin all the legal protection to live their and benefits without having out in time to pay tax.

There parents presumably havent lived their or paid tax. I assume the local population will reset that.

Id guess both sides will resent each other and commit crimes against each others.

The wealthy will just move to safe places or other countries and the tax base of Spain and the EU will decline. 

As an North American its sad to see. Its sadder to see the average voter see this but still votes for these policies. 

The average voter in the EU sees this too. It seems the EU is in decline and support for the EU is in decline. 

Id say the whole continent is decentralizing and fast.

If Africans keep moving in and refusing to be a part of their community then Europeans will immigrate if they can, either legally or not.

Id say US LLS will be in great demand from them so they can work online, do business online or both from anywhere they land, so the US Dollar will be in great demand. 

All this illegal immigration and all these wars will create a new decentralized economy and culture all over the world including the US, EU, Russia, and China. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

Friday, The reinflation trade, Quad 3

The Quad 3 continues. (Hedgeye) The reinflation continues. 

For the last few days the momentum trade has been in the toilet. 

It looks like today we will get a bounce in some of that stuff and a chance to reshort it.

The broadening rally in the share market continues, Healthcare, Dividend, value, bond proxies, Reits ect.

So far bonds have been in the toilet, speaking of bonds, more disinflation and deflationists are caveing, they are at the point where they say publicly that they sold their bonds and believe the Fed isnt serious about rising inflation.

Mike Green has said as much in podcasts. He thinks there maybe a deflation scare but it will be met with more inflation policies from the Fed.

I think he is right. He even admits to owning to much gold.

I think there is a rising concensus that the Government and Fed will bail everyone out with rising inflation. 

Hugh Hendry has said as much about Japan. 

Anyways I think rising inflation may cause a rising share market in some countries, despite how in the past rising inflation led to down share markets. 

There has been so much wealth created in the world that much of it will go to traditional assets such as gold, and real estate. 

Markets have changed and evolved so now people will use that information and wealth to protect themselves from these government policies. 

Or maybe im wrong and voters will vote to cut their benefits. I dont know but will go with a trend following policy, with a gold coin holding.

Thanks for reading. 

"Flows" More war, and possibly WW3

Everyones expecting a bear market in shares, at least in the US. If the flows of the pension funds in the US slow down that could be the start of a panic/bear market in shares.

Then we have WW3 with Iran and Russia, China with Ukraine and Europe. 

I keep seeing Mike Green interviews where he describes a senario where we have another Great Depession with a decade or more of lower share prices. 

His typical solution to avoid that kind of drawdown is to be diversified in bonds which few investors find acceptable. 

If we have rising inflation now few investors will want to buy bonds because in the last few years bond investors have got their heads handed to them.

I can see why an investor would buy bonds but dont think many will, it makes investing in managed futures ETFs more acceptable,  they can buy the bonds or short them and manage that risk.

I do agree with Mike Green on the dangers of market place risk and how few investors want to deal with these things even though what he says makes sense.

Anyway listening to Mr. Green brings my enthusiasm for shares down a bit.

Im at least invested in shares around the world including bond proxies like Reits, I like the Reits in Asia, Hong Kong and Japan, even Malaysia. 

Of course I like Australia and Europe,  Canada not as much.

At least I have shares in those markets and bond proxies there like infrastructure ect.

EB Tucker. 

Then there is EB Tucker, he says ride the trend, AKA trend following, which I agree with and in his latest letter says we worry to much about wars and bear markets and hes right. Sometimes if we do as he suggests and just but a few gold coins and a few mobile home shacks in the country and just put the rest in shares we would be better off.

He likes things in Japan and US out of favour stuff and things like computer security ect.

In general I like his outlook on things. He suggests just living in the moment doing what you like and buying a few gold coins and spending time with family and friends doing what you like, he likes tennis. 

I like hiking in the mountains and desert. I think Mr. Tucker is right.

Hugh Hendry. 

Then theres Hugh Hendry. He like long term trends.

The share market in Japan was down 32 years I think. In the last year its up 50% or more.

I think hes still pretty bullish on Japan shares. I believe he thinks they could rally another 300% if not more. Then yen could go to 200 or higher against the US Dollar. 

I think he maybe right. I think AI will help the share market in Japan and people will keep bidding up the shares their.

He gets a lot of hell for expressing that view, and others because people want perfect timing. 

What I like about EB Tucker and Mr.Hendry is they like following the long term trend and just living a good life.

Mr. Hendry has a nice crib in St. Barts and builds many cribs their for successful people.

I think hes right, as the economy decentralizes successful people will move to safe places where they can live well. 

For people like me that means Philippines or Northern Mariana Islands. 

Taxes there arent much and people leave you alone. 

Thats it for now.

Thanks for reading. 

The world seems to be decentralizing.

The world seems to be decentralizing. 

I watch a lot of videos of people around the world and have seen a trend that seems to be new.

I noticed from North America to Europe people are dropping out of society and the workforce. 

I see young men from the UK just up and quitting there jobs and pack a bag and either walk hitch hike or ride a bike all over the country and documenting there journey on YouTube or other social media accounts. 

These are older men too. Like close to my age mid fifties. They just pack a bag walk and sometimes work part time jobs and camp out or work a few days to weeks for cash and then move on.

They seem happy and dont seem incentised to provide for a girlfriend or wife. Or to save for retirement. 

I see this trend in North America everywhere. I see people move into there cars or vans and just drive and park and go wild camping and either working part-time online or work jobs where they work enough to save money for there next few months of expenses. 

I see women starting this trend too. Its sad to see women either homeless or living in there car or van because there pension isnt enough to cover rent and there basic expenses. 

I see this a lot in North America. There seems to be a trend of giving up despite a somewhat growing economy.

I think to myself what this trend means or points too.

I tend to think the cost of government is getting to high and people are dropping out of the workforce. 

They would rather collect government recoursers and work for cash than pay the rising inflation tax and rising income tax and other government imposed fees or tax.

It seems like many are withdrawing there consent of government intervention in the economy. 

I see this trend in Canada, UK and even places like Russia, I wonder about China but dont know.

I wonder how long this trend of the economy decentralizing can last before we see government address this or clamp down more on people's liberty. 

As technology changes it will easier for average men and women to earn income from the economy, either online or offline and get paid in cash or in kind and live wherever they want. 

We can see from migration patterns, government has no incentive to stop illegal immigration and taxing citizens to pay for immigrants services such as housing, healthcare and income, despite the immigrants not having paid tax.

I believe its why I see all these men and women dropping out of the society, and workforce. 

Anyhow seeing all these trends clashing with the i trests of citizens and then the same with AI technology is interesting. 

Seeing this in Russia of all places is interesting too and much of Eastern Europe. 

Thanks for reading. 

Week in review. (Shares, Trend following)

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Friday I got the opportunity to buy WEAT and a few other ETFs with commodity exposure and oil and gas.

Gas or Natural Gas in Europe is trending quit a bit. Many trend following ETFs such as MFUT have been catching the wave and have really recovered nicely. 

As I get older I like and enjoy trend following and use it in my own trading/investmenting.

If I have income shares as long term investments that arent trending i just take them down to a minimum size and wait to size it up when it trends.

Thats how I feel about BDCs and leveraged bond funds ect.

Long term I expect governments to inflate there currencies and default on there promises to people through budget cuts and of course rising inflation. 

I expect deflation scares but they will be met with currency debasement. Probably why I like fractional gold coins.

I expect AI Tech to through a wrench into my expectations. Maybe it will give us deflation or rising liberty, its possible but unlikely for most of the world, but expect the unexpected. 

Again Probably why I like gold coins and trending shares. I expect inflation to possibly keep rising share markets and real estate markets. 

I also expect more decentralizing in the economy and culture. I expect more people to dropout of society, especially the wealthy but also the lower income people, I dont expect governments to like this.

I assume they willuse propaganda to keep people in the system, but from what i have seen of videos on Russia and the EU and North America its not working. 

But to be honest it seems the dumbing down of most people is working and working to favour governments and corporations, elites. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

Cleaning my ears.(How To)

I clean my ears with this device.  It has a front piece that hooks on and shoots water in three directions. 

You fill it up in the sink with warm water and push it into your ears to clean out the wax.

first you put Hydragine peroxide in your ear. Let it soak in for 20 minutes, it eats out the bad stuff in your ear then loosens up the wax.

Then you shoot the warm water in and press the water out in your ear, and it shoots out big chunks of ear wax into your sink.

You may have to do the process a few times to get out all the wax, it works and all the things you need to do this can be bought at Walmart or Amazon. 

Anyhow it worked for me.

It seems the wars continue.

It seems the war in Iran and Russia continues. The markets dont seem to care.

Id also say the reflation continues too.

Although I dont think inflation will tick up much and in time will come down, and come down enough where the government will feel secure enough to reflate the economy more than people will realize. 

I believe over time most western countries will inflate there money supply to pay for wars and pensioners and other welfare schemes. 

I dont think we will see deflation but like Matt Smith and Doug Casey say its possible and in that case id want gold coins and the cash that goes with it.

I see most people dont have much cash saved and according to Matt Smith there was a study or questionnaire that says 30% of people shop lift. In other parlance shrinkage is going up and high already. 

As I have said in previous articles, the culture is changing fast.

As people see that you wont get prosecuted for theft or fraud more people will accept doing it to survive. 

Speaking of shop lifting, when I was a kid in Baltimore, in the 1990s there was a lot of shop lifting by employees where I worked in a store and at the end of the shift they would check your back pack to see if you stole things. 

So this trend was there in the 90s in Baltimore. 

Wars

Back to the wars, I think wr will see Russia strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons soon. 

I dont think the US will do much. We will see. I dont think Europe will do much, except more migration out of Europe if you have money.

Iran, im not sure what will happen there. The trade routes will be disruptived permanently and we could see the decline in that part of the world.

We may see Iran change too, maybe in a good way, so far its not good their for most people. 

I think in the western world people will decentralize.

The economy will decentralize and im not sure if thats good or bad but think it will happen and cause a new prosperity. 

We could go back to more local economies and customs ans traditions like before world war one and two.

I think world trade will change, maybe more taxes so less trade and that will encourage more independent economics. 

Same with food and medicine and everything else.

It will probably make for a better world. Then add AI technology.

Thats it for now, thanks for reading.