The reflation continues.

The reflation continues. Well the inflation numbers came out this morning and inflation was better than expected and we are getting a stock market rally.

I believe inflation will stay higher than most people believe and in a month or two inflation numbers will start trending up, possibly after the Fed lowers interest rates.

With lower inflation expectations, id guess this will give the Fed permission to lower rates, and take pressure off funding the deficit at these high rates.

The corporations would like lower rates to fund there expansions.

I think inflation will still be a problem for the K shaped economy, especially if you are in the bottom K where resentment is going up and by quite a bit.

At least for now shares are up and you can add tech ETFs to your Reits, your insurance ETFs, and small cap dividend ETFs, and your larger cap ones too.

The economy is expanding despite this recent slowdown at least in North America.

Not much to add, have fewer shorts and more longs.

I forgot to mention, at least for now if the Fed lowers interest rates, that may put pressure on the US Dollar, so gold, silver, etherium, foreign currency may rally from here for awhile. Gold may go up and stay up no matter what happens. 

The trust in US Treasurys are in decline around the world and many people continue to buy and own gold coins.

If we get a deflation, I expect gold to trend down but many will not sell for fear of a world wide reflation.

Thanks for reading. 

Good day in markets.

It was a good day in markets today. They were mostly down, I had a few shorts and longs that worked well.

I was up 10 or so basis points by the end of the close.

I think tomorrow maybe a rally, despite the ongoing wars and inflation issues. 

It seems we are in new times and markets are readjusting to these issues. 

I continue to believe inflation will tick down but long term will remain high.

I think the world readjusting to higher inflation and wars and slower growth will lead to higher commoditys and probably higher gold prices. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

Reirecheap.asia/ Escape to Thailand (JC/Nat) Retire the channel?

JC and Nat made there latest update video on there channel EscapetoThailand.com, I believe is there channel.

They may stop content on there channel because of lack of interest. 

There is maybe a fifty persent chance the keep the channel. 

JC said the channel may not create enough income to pay the bills associated with the channel. 

I have always believed they have one of the best channels on living in Thailand, and Asia in general. 

More than ten years ago I believe I started watching Retire Cheap Asia while I was still working for Electrolux in St. Cloud Minnesota.

I believe JC has commented on the decline of information on Thailand subjects and he has commented on the negative comments he gets from other channels he has.

He has also said its harder to collect money from PayPal and send it to Thailand. 

I believe thats why many channels not related to travel are shutting down. 

Payment processing is getting more difficult to do if you live outside of North America and complying with new and growing regulations in Thailand and other countries makes it more difficult and may not be worth people's time if they cant get compisated.

I believe this is sought by governments to keep people from fleeing unpopular situations and living in other countries. I mean governments dont like the tax cows leaving, like inthe UK and Europe. 

Anyways im sad to hear this news but JC hasnt decided to shut the channel down. 

But he has multiple online and offline business and I believe income from Social Security so may not want more business hassles with little compensation. 

I believe we will continue to see these trends. AI has really created opportunities and bad outcomes for many people and the AI trend is just starting. 

Thanks for reading. 

More consensus intrest rates will go down.

There appears to be more consensus that interest rates in the US will go down. As more data comes in that inflation maybe coming down interest rates will probably be lowered.

I would guess that will lead to a lower dollar, at least for awhile. 

Which will probably lead to higher gold prices, and maybe higher silver prices.

Etherium has started trending up, and Solana maybe getting ready to start trending, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a rally there at least for awhile. 

There seems to be a growing consensus that the wars will continue despite not being popular with the public, so long term id guess inflation will be higher despite the current down tick in prices 

I continue to believe AI technology will roll on creating a two tiered economy that many will benefit from and many will be left behind.

So we may get a short term rally in bonds long term we may continue to see a bear market. 

Thats it for now.

Joe Blogs latest video, Seattles Pike Place market

I just saw Joe Blogs latest video in Seattle, Wa, he just came down from Vancouver, Canada I believe and made a video of Pikes Place Market and the waterfront in Seattle. 

If you dont know Joe Blogs is a British chap who makes videos on current events in Russia, China ect and investments I think.

He is on holiday I believe and chose to visit the Pacific Northwest. 

Its been nice seeing his videos of Canada in Vancouver and in Seattle where I grew up. The scenery in his video is beautiful, its shows Seattle how I remember it, lots of coffee houses, restaurants for seafood, the Pikes Place Market where you can buy all kinds of junk then stop off at Starbucks for a coffee, I did that in the late 80s. Of course things have changed. 

I saw in his video the place where you store you junk, the storage place, I cant remember the name.

I Joe Blogs video it shows all the people walking around and shows how Seattle and Vancouver are pretty Asian now.

I remember how Seattle was changing as a kid, and Vancouver,Canada was almost 50% Asian or Chinese, I cant remember. 

Theres a lot of Vietnamese their now too.

My co worker in Alaska was Vietnamese and from Seattle. 

Anyhow Joes video was nice to see and the previous ones he made too.

Anyhow you can search for Joe Blogs channel on YouTube. 

Thanks for reading. 

Thought of the day. "Protecting the Pile"@hedgeeye

I just got done listening to the latest @hedgeeye podcast, I watched it on YouTube. 

It had all the HAM asset managers on it, even David Salem. 

They talked about "Recourse Wars" concerning national recources in Africa, in this case copper and colbalt were mentioned. 

They also talked about the current wars we are in with Russia and Iran and how we are not treating our allies well.

Which led to talk on slowly rising oil prices and that might lead to oil shares rising and the people who supply them, ticker OIH.

It was an interesting conversation on these topics plus the over investment in AI tech and the consequences from it.

One of the HAM portfolio managers was coming in from Kenya, I believe. 

Its nice that hedge eye has a wide diverse set of managers managing your money if you choose that direction. 

I believe our politicians and policy makers are making bad decisions on our behalf and may lead to a weaker dollar and rising gold prices. Even with a strong dollar I think we may see higher gold prices.

Thanks for reading. 

Another mixed day in the markets.

The day in the markets isnt over yet. When the market opened many of my shorts were down and in quite a bit of profit, so I covered quite a bit, and some were up so added to my shorts.

Many dividend ETFs were down a little so I added their.

Took profit on quite a few long trades.

I think the economy will expand a little but still expect a slow down in many tech shares and layoffs from many of those companies. 

I still expect interest rates to go up a little, and similiar with gold.

Im not sure if the gold rally will last, only time will tell.

As far as the Iran war, im not sure about that either. I expect the US will walk away from it.

The war in Russia/Ukraine, Im not sure about that either. I am guessing the US will support them in words but im not sure we even have the missiles to give them.

Im not sure about Europe, it seems the young doesn't support the EUs stance on the war either.

It seems like we may have a decade of rising inflation, sinking share prices and similiar with bonds.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

Clean up day.

I sold a lot of my low performers (Shares)

Its painful to admit mistakes, and costly too. Not to mention the margin costs.

Anyways I brought my margin down quite a bit.

Time will tell if this was the right decision. I got caught not stopping out of some shorts. 

I also stopped out of other shorts not working. 

I dont like the margin costs when I get down to 80% I prefer to stay at 90% or higher.

Anyhow I expect the rally to continue and even the wars so not sure how this will work out accept that inflation will stay higher than many expect, and interest could go up soon before they come down. 

I expect gold to start performing well, probably oil shares too.

I expect reits to slowly climb higher, same with dividend paying shares, like SCHD, SCHY, and their competitors like HDV ect.

Emerging market shares are taking off too.

Thanks for reading. 

Earning report. PRGO

Its earnings season and Perrigo released earnings today and shares shot up 24%, I believe they closed 23%higher today.

They are a pharmaceutical company in Ireland and sell over the counter products in emerging markets and including the USA. 

They have bany formula facilities in the US I believe and are now past there troubles with them.

Anyhow I own a few shares and its nice to see the shares are up and the share market rally is broadening. 

Anyhow thanks for reading. 

The Taco Trade continues.

The Taco trade continues. 

Yesterday (Sunday night) Futures prices were up for most share markets. 

Most foreign currencys were down against the US Dollar, except the Yen.

I believe this is the beginning of a weak dollar policy by the US government, policy makers.

This will lead to rising share markets in the developing markets, gold markets ect.

I still think oil shares will rally. Same with reits, infrastructure shares ect.

We may see a rally in tech shares, time will tell.

I continue to believe value shares go up. Same with dividend shares.

Im starting to get bullish on gold bullion too.

If our policy is to devalue the Dollar and inflate the currency to pay for war and the welfare state, then owning gold coins held in your possession will be wise.

These policies will enrich the elites and impoverishe the lower income people but it appears thats what people will vote for and could end badly for most people. 

Thats it for now thanks for reading. 

The Spanish invasion continues.....Maybe....

So far from the videos I see the Invasion of Spain is off for now and many men who invaded gave up and are returning to Morocco. 

Others are saying its not true and there are many thousands staying and waiting to go to mainland Spain and then maybe Germany. 

I dont know but many now are awake and realize whats happening and maybe there will be major changes to the average European and we will see the withholding of consent from European voters and citizens. 

I dont know but something big may come out of this, I mean how the economy works or doesnt and maybe a decline in the Welfare State.

Its sad to see video footage of this and the lack of sympathy for Spaniards and Europeans.

At least in North America we are somewhat armed and can take action if necessary. 

We still have a somewhat productive economy, we still have cash, and States where liberty is still valued. 

Anyway I expect Europeans and UK folks to keep flooding in come what may.

Thanks for reading.

Yenagedin, JGB 4%, Ect.

Another Sunday at Micky Ds.

Most investors probably know the USDJPY plunged.

The JGBs got above 4% yields I believe. So many think its the end of the world for shares. I dont know. I will go with the trend and wait and see if this is the beginning of a trend change.

Id say we are at the point where most investors believe the Fed and its competitors overseas will inflate out of the current mess we are in and higher interest rates are here to stay at least for awhile. 

I believe we will see higher gold prices and maybe silver prices despite a slowdown in the economy. 

Its possible share prices will fall especially chip companies and AI companies but I think we maybe seeing the beginning of a bull market in value shares with dividend yields.

Even bond proxies like reits and infrastructure projects will rally and probably keep going up despite higher interest rates 

I think it maybe the same with BDCs.

Only time will tell.

With what I see in the culture at least in the United States, I believe inflation maybe backed in the cake. 

Theres a lot of fraud now and it seems many people are giving up.

In that kind of environment inflation is the option many policy makers will choose. 

I dont like this but it seems this is what voters choose.

Well tonight we will see if Mr. Trup Tacos or not.

Either way we are closer to WW3 and people cant deny it much more and something will get priced into the market. Higher gold prices?

I dont know.

Thanks for reading. 

The invasion of Spain (Ceuta)

The current and ongoing invasion of Ceuta,(Spain) is pretty interesting.

I believe Ceuta is an enclave in Morocco, that belongs to Spain.

I understand Ceuta is an tax haven for Spain but now its a landing point for poor Africans and Muslims. 

Its interesting to watch all the footage of these young men landing in Ceuta and then running from authorities and in some cases committing crimes.

There was even one young man who admitted to murder from where he came from and wanted to live in Spain and start his life over.

From the images its mostly or all young men.

These young men will be givin free housing, food and cash benefits I presume. 

When I think about it, they havent paid any tax in Spain or the EU but will be givin all the legal protection to live their and benefits without having out in time to pay tax.

There parents presumably havent lived their or paid tax. I assume the local population will reset that.

Id guess both sides will resent each other and commit crimes against each others.

The wealthy will just move to safe places or other countries and the tax base of Spain and the EU will decline. 

As an North American its sad to see. Its sadder to see the average voter see this but still votes for these policies. 

The average voter in the EU sees this too. It seems the EU is in decline and support for the EU is in decline. 

Id say the whole continent is decentralizing and fast.

If Africans keep moving in and refusing to be a part of their community then Europeans will immigrate if they can, either legally or not.

Id say US LLS will be in great demand from them so they can work online, do business online or both from anywhere they land, so the US Dollar will be in great demand. 

All this illegal immigration and all these wars will create a new decentralized economy and culture all over the world including the US, EU, Russia, and China. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading.