Week in review. (Shares, Trend following)

Well Friday when markets closed, we saw Reits up nicely (BLDG, XLRE, DESK) just to name a few. 

DIVP WAS UP 2% i think too, so value shares have been up to and quite a bit.

ETFs like SCHY, SCHD to name a few have been trending up nicely too.

Infrastructure ETFs such as AMLP and its competitors are up nicely too and have been for a while.

I expect these trends to continue for awhile. Dividend shares have been doing well and much of Technology shares or the mag 7 or bag 7 as they are referred to are down and by a lot. Same with chip companies in Korea.

I have been shorting momentum shares such as the mag 7 and the ETFs they represent. 

I made quite a bit on this downdraft.

I would be a buyer of BUG the ETF of software and security shares.

I still think they will trend.

Im still not sure about Gold, Silver they are still in a down trend but expect that to change. Much like ETH or Etherum.

Same with BTC its still trending down but might reverse soon.

Many commoditys are trending, WEAT and its friends have been trending, possibly because of the wars.

Friday I got the opportunity to buy WEAT and a few other ETFs with commodity exposure and oil and gas.

Gas or Natural Gas in Europe is trending quit a bit. Many trend following ETFs such as MFUT have been catching the wave and have really recovered nicely. 

As I get older I like and enjoy trend following and use it in my own trading/investmenting.

If I have income shares as long term investments that arent trending i just take them down to a minimum size and wait to size it up when it trends.

Thats how I feel about BDCs and leveraged bond funds ect.

Long term I expect governments to inflate there currencies and default on there promises to people through budget cuts and of course rising inflation. 

I expect deflation scares but they will be met with currency debasement. Probably why I like fractional gold coins.

I expect AI Tech to through a wrench into my expectations. Maybe it will give us deflation or rising liberty, its possible but unlikely for most of the world, but expect the unexpected. 

Again Probably why I like gold coins and trending shares. I expect inflation to possibly keep rising share markets and real estate markets. 

I also expect more decentralizing in the economy and culture. I expect more people to dropout of society, especially the wealthy but also the lower income people, I dont expect governments to like this.

I assume they willuse propaganda to keep people in the system, but from what i have seen of videos on Russia and the EU and North America its not working. 

But to be honest it seems the dumbing down of most people is working and working to favour governments and corporations, elites. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

Cleaning my ears.(How To)

I clean my ears with this device.  It has a front piece that hooks on and shoots water in three directions. 

You fill it up in the sink with warm water and push it into your ears to clean out the wax.

first you put Hydragine peroxide in your ear. Let it soak in for 20 minutes, it eats out the bad stuff in your ear then loosens up the wax.

Then you shoot the warm water in and press the water out in your ear, and it shoots out big chunks of ear wax into your sink.

You may have to do the process a few times to get out all the wax, it works and all the things you need to do this can be bought at Walmart or Amazon. 

Anyhow it worked for me.

It seems the wars continue.

It seems the war in Iran and Russia continues. The markets dont seem to care.

Id also say the reflation continues too.

Although I dont think inflation will tick up much and in time will come down, and come down enough where the government will feel secure enough to reflate the economy more than people will realize. 

I believe over time most western countries will inflate there money supply to pay for wars and pensioners and other welfare schemes. 

I dont think we will see deflation but like Matt Smith and Doug Casey say its possible and in that case id want gold coins and the cash that goes with it.

I see most people dont have much cash saved and according to Matt Smith there was a study or questionnaire that says 30% of people shop lift. In other parlance shrinkage is going up and high already. 

As I have said in previous articles, the culture is changing fast.

As people see that you wont get prosecuted for theft or fraud more people will accept doing it to survive. 

Speaking of shop lifting, when I was a kid in Baltimore, in the 1990s there was a lot of shop lifting by employees where I worked in a store and at the end of the shift they would check your back pack to see if you stole things. 

So this trend was there in the 90s in Baltimore. 

Wars

Back to the wars, I think wr will see Russia strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons soon. 

I dont think the US will do much. We will see. I dont think Europe will do much, except more migration out of Europe if you have money.

Iran, im not sure what will happen there. The trade routes will be disruptived permanently and we could see the decline in that part of the world.

We may see Iran change too, maybe in a good way, so far its not good their for most people. 

I think in the western world people will decentralize.

The economy will decentralize and im not sure if thats good or bad but think it will happen and cause a new prosperity. 

We could go back to more local economies and customs ans traditions like before world war one and two.

I think world trade will change, maybe more taxes so less trade and that will encourage more independent economics. 

Same with food and medicine and everything else.

It will probably make for a better world. Then add AI technology.

Thats it for now, thanks for reading. 

The world is changing.

The world is changing faster than I can readjust too.

As the world changes I cant believe how fast these changes are.

In the news I see Ukraine and Russia continue to use drones to hurt each other and destroy infrastructure and property.

The Iran war same thing, I believe parts of the Middle East are becoming irrelevant, not Iran but the surrounding countries. 

INFLUENCERS, 2008 financial Crisis. 

Ever sense the financial crisis there has been changes going on underneath the service. 

The Influencers seemed to come to power in 2008. Nothing much has changed except now influencers have more power and influence and thats  changing everything. 

In the economy there are more people walking away from traditional carriers. 

There are more people starting online and offline businesses. 

There are more people jumping ship and moving overseas or just living in vans and or wild camping while they walk or bike across the country.

I see this in many Western countries even in the East.

As most politicians and governing elites lose legitimacy people stop producing like they did before. 

It seems like the wealth of the world is changing. 

Remonitization Of Gold.

I see the same thing in gold too. In Turkey you can deposit gold in a bank and earn interest income, im not sure if its payable in gold.

More wealthy people are buying gold as well as Governments. 

People dont seem to trust Governments to honor there promises to pay or pay there bond holders interest or pension obligations.

Even in North America people are starting to buy gold coins, like they do in Asia or the Middle East. 

Maybe the Turkish Government sold gold but the citizens are buying same in India. It seems the trust is gone.

Meanwhile in the US we are back to the reflation trade.

Thats it for today. 

Ukrainian protesters, Russia war, Iran bombing, WW3

It seems we are in WW3 and few want to admit in in the Western World. 

I have noticed more YouTube videos on the protesting in Ukraine against the current president.

It appears he is corrupt and promoting people who aren't well regarded and firing the men who are.

So while theres a war against Russia people in Ukraine arent happy with the way current elites there are treating them.

Russia bombing. 

The Ukrainians are bombing there ships and oil facilities that produce diesel and gasoline for cars and that maybe causing rising prices and shortages. It could be there are shortages because its summer their and demand for fuel is much higher than normal. 

A similar thing is happening in the US and other countries, I dont know exactly. 

The trust of Russians with their government elites is going down and not good.

More Russians are planning to leave the country if they can or they are moving to smaller cities to avoid the worst of it.

A similar thing is happening in Ukraine. 

Europe 

In Europe more people are disappointed with rising cost of living, rising tax and inflation. 

And less healthcare and other government services like police protection from immigrants and rising crime.

The same could be said of the UK too.

In Germany more people are leaving the country to avoid the draft and older people leave to avoid rising inflation and cost of living.

Employer's leave because of rising energy costs and tax ect.

All this is a loss of trust between average men and women and the elites and governing classes.

You can sense the culture is changing everywhere. 

In the US.

In the US more soldiers are coming home in body bags.

The war in Iran is heating up and not going away.

Theirs a sense the US has already lost the war and it wasn't in the US interest anyway, and Americans are paying the price and they resent it.

Everywhere people are sensing they are being lied too.

I believe this is causing a change in culture and maybe the beginning of a worldwide decentralization. 

I dont know what will happen but with AI and other technology it will be harder to govern people without their consent and have a productive economy. 

We will see what happens. 

I prefer to be optimistic than negative but plan to enjoy life either way.

Thanks for reading. 

End of the week commentary on markets.

Its the end of the week, Friday and share markets are down. It appears oil maybe in a bull market.  Its at least approximately near its trend line.

I still dont think we are in a bull market for oil, but in a few weeks or less we will know. 

Most or many bond market proxies did well this week. Bonds with three year or less maturitys did well, Reits in the US and offshore did well, most BDCs did ok too over the week.

Gold is still below the trend line but maybe getting ready for a reflation environment next month.

Japan and Korean share markets, or chip and memory companies were down a lot.

My opinion is in the next few months we may get a reflation or maybe just a bear market in the US.

I believe we are in an WW3 situation which short term could be deflationary longer term inflationary but with an sicking share market but rising gold and commodity prices.

AI, Chat GBT CLAUDE.

I see more commentaries from younger people using the paid and free versions of the above mentioned products and findings ways to use them in unique ways to increase there productivity and actually make products people will buy.

These young people are learning these new technologies will basically equal free labour and it excites them and scares them.

They have found sense there the first ones to use them and understand them they can make a fortune before everyone else and invest the money into unique real estate or dividend income shares and not really have to work again.

I can see how even a small income from AI products and services will change peoples lives in ways there parents and grandparents could only dream of.

I can see if you want to beat the system you will need to learn how to use these tools or be an unique creative human to earn income.

I can also see how some things like food and other products like medicine and other things will get cheap and if you have a small income from shares or other sources you will not need a career like your parents to survive.

I think there will be downsides to these technologies but if you can avoid them your life will be content and productive. 

Its still early in this cycle so who knows how things develop but im optimistic despite a WW3 situation if you live in the Americas or North America youll be fine.

Thats it for now thanks for reading.

Market update. Shares

Markets update, July 16, 2026.

Another down day this morning. I believe oil will continue to trend down. I think AI and other Tech shares will rally in the days ahead.

I believe most commodities will trend down, although not by a lot. I think the AI boom will continue wether people like it or not.

I think gold is bottoming and will not go down much.

I think over time the markets will price in interest rate cuts and some bonds will rally and there bond proxies too, such as Reits.

Reits are up nicely today despite the down day, international Reits have been going up too.

I think over time people will realize most Government s will inflate to save social spending and to support the current wars.

I believe the world is decentralizing into three or more major blocks and cooporation between nations will continue to break down.

I believe the US block will continue to prosper despite its economic issues. 

I believe the same with the Chinese block.

Same with the Russia/ EU block but there prosperity will be less but most people will accept it and those who dont will immigrate to North America. 

The same can be said with the rest of the world.

Although I think the US could have a so called lost decade, like Japan most investors will pivot to other assets around the world or there own personal business. 

Much like the Japanese did in there three decade down trend.

Thats it for now, thanks for reading. 

Inflation numbers, today,July 14,2026

Todays latest inflation numbers printed today before the US open and came in at .70 basis points or inflation was less than expected down ,70 of one percent. 

I was expecting inflation to be down despite the escalation in oil prices and the continuing war in Iran. 

I believe inflation keeps going down but over time the US government will print money to fund wars, and social spending, like S.S. and other programs. 

I believe the US will do like Europe and Japan and so buying assets and betting currency prices will be down. 

So owning assets like Reits, Gold, and AI Tech will do well overtime.

Although the inflation numbers came in lower than expected bond prices didnt rally much, although low end bonds rallied. I mean shorter term bonds did.

Thats it for now.

July 13,2026, markets down.

It appears we will have another down day today in share markets, at least in the US.

The war in Iran appears to be heating up, and last night when US futures prices opened up gold was down and oil was up 3% to 4%.

Japan was down, Hong Kong im not sure, but some of the Hong Kong ETFS are down this morning in early trading. So I covered part of my short and added to my oil short, NORW, im shorting Norway and today added COAL.

Gold was down, didnt look at silver prices.

Im not sure how much longer commoditys will go down.

I think after we get through the deflation scare, inflation could heat up, but with AI maybe commoditys will keep getting bud up.

Longer term I probably lean towards inflation and higher gold prices, but expect in technology there will be price declines and rising standards of living for most people in the West.

Im biased towards the Government will debase currency, like in Japan to pay for deficits and social spending and whatever wars we have, so over time asset prices will go up as will gold coin prices.

Thats it for today.  Thanks for reading.

Quad 4 to Quad 1 or 2? A rising gold price, with lower interest rates.

I believe right now today, July 11,2026 we are coming out of a Quad 4 environment, which is inflationary, with rising intrest rates, falling commodity prices and falling bond prices. 

I believe next weeks inflation number (print) will suggest inflation is coming down and bond prices will rally. 

In other words markets will start pricing in interest rate declines. 

In that environment gold prices may go up with bond prices. I wonder if the two year bond bear market is over?

I dont know.  If I had to guess we will see more deflation scares, which will cause governments to use inflation to there advantage to shrink the deficits of there respective countries. 

So we may get both and the opportunity to trade them. With AI technology I lean towards lower inflation but expect governments to inflate the money supply to pay for the wars and welfare state.

As the Chinese say, we live in interesting times!

I will continue to own gold coins and shares in foreign countries including the US.

Right now I lean towards China, Hong Kong and Japan. 

I dont care much for Europe expect special opportunities like Nokia, Reits and things to short sell.

We live in fast changing times. I hope my readers take the opportunity to learn about biotechnology and the many opportunities in AI tech and how it will benefit Japan and China, and IBM and maybe Nokia. 

Of course there are more opportunities, such as commoditys and energy to fund all this and who owns or controls them will win I believe. 

Happy Weekend. 

Next weeks inflation print.(#)

Next weeks inflation print, numbers will be released next week.

Current interest rates are at there most recent highs, signaling inflation will be up.

I think that's wrong, I believe we have seen the high for inflation, at least for now.

I think its possible next weeks number will suggest inflation is coming down. So I think the two year bear market in bonds maybe over, at least for now.

If next weeks inflation print does come in lower than expectations then that will cause bond prices to rally, interest rates to lower, and possibly cause the USD dollar to weaken.

If the dollar weakens then I would not be surprised if gold rallies higher, and take emerging market currencys higher and their share markets. 

It may even cause Sterling to rally. Maybe even share markets in the UK will rise.

War in Iran. 

If the war in Iran does not wind down that's one area where I might be wrong. 

If the war heats up the USD probably will stay strong. Inflation unusually high, and interest rates may not come down, thats where I could be wrong.

I believe the Fed. Treasury Department wants a weak USD dollar and lower rates to fund the wars, and deficit. 

So only time will tell.

I basically would buy gold coins here if I didn't own any, or if I was willing to hold them two years or more. I would also own them because they are an invisible asset to own.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

More people talk about health care today.

 I hear more people talking about healthcare on social media, YouTube and X.

There seems to be a consensus that people are unhappy with the high cost of healthcare and and the quality of healthcare.  At least if you live in the US, healthcare can bankrupt you and the premiums on healthcare ins are so high and what you get in return arent worth it.

So people are learning to separate there assets from there name to trusts or assets that are invisible but things that are still legal to do.

There are even people with six figure savings and income with no healthcare ins and then get expensive bills from clinics and hospitals but  play hardball with the bill collecters and often times dont pay and not much happens as far as the bill collector s going to court and getting a judgement.

In fact when the challenge the bill before it goes to courst the hospital admits it defrauded the client with inflated charges and often drops the collection. 

I read about reports of this pretty frequently. 

I dont have an answer to this problem but like to write about here. 

I believe in the future we will have a one payor government program for everyone or there will be massive reform that fixes this because more North Americans are learning to game the system or there just leaving the country so reforms will have to be met or lose the best and brightest, much like whats happening in the E.U. or U.K.

Thats the thought if the day. 

The stress of debt(medical)

Ive been thinking about debt, medical and other debts and the stress of how to pay them if they are overwhelming and you have no job or source of income. 

I was hurt on the job and left with medical bills including an ambulance bill I havent received yet.

It causes a lot of stress as you can imagine and sleepless nights. I call this anxiety. 

I know many people in these circumstances who have these same issues and just as much anxiety. 

I also know people in these circumstances who dont, I envy these people but not as much as I used too. In my circumstances I have done much research to see how bad it could get and what I could do to reduce the worst outcomes. 

It turns out there is a lot.

I learned from Google, which isnt always right that it normally takes three to six years to sue a patient or use the court system to sieze your assets if any or income from a job.

Its actually easier to shield income from a job depending on what state state you live in and same with assets.

If assets are in Texas or Florida and they are ERISA assets (401k) or other pension assets those are best states but New Mexico and Iowa arent to bad either, but the law for ROTH assets are different in different states. Sometimes your very protected other times like in California not as much.

If you move to Florida to get the protection generally speaking it has to be two years before the creditor percues you in count.

All states have different laws on this so its worthwhile to learn where your state falls in all this.

Like I said Iowa and New Mexico arent to bad as far as what creditors can do legally. 

Research 

From the research ive done if you have income or assets there is much to be done to legally protect them.

Theres much you can do if your asset such as government pension is being paid now.

So your age can matter. Its difficult for creditors to size a government pension or the bank account its in. In many places you can have double the pension check in a bank account that cant be siezed, so as long as you keep saving below that amount your ok and creditors can't sieze it, if they do you can file court documents and get it back.

Its similiar with assets such as cars and land or houses but that depends on what state you live in.

With brokerage accounts of course its different. 

Some convert those assets before a fraudulent conveyance can ba claimed which in some states is six months to two years, so what many do is buy assets that are invisible and hide them. So they use delaying tricks to legally slow down the collection time and buy them more time to legally transfer the asset out of there legal name.

Obviously dont break any law, get legal advice and do these things before you have these bills that can bankrupt you. (Medical)

I now have an understanding why wealthy people persue these things and why people resent them for doing so.

It comes down to money and time, which wealthy people have planty of.

I am now learning that lesson late in life and its painful. 

As I learn these things I realize I have more options and less anxiety but also I learn if you talk about these things family and friends can resent you.

I realize many people prefer to be victims of circumstances, which I dont like myself and have come to realize I have to choose a path many dont like.

Thanks for reading.