Market update. Shares

Markets update, July 16, 2026.

Another down day this morning. I believe oil will continue to trend down. I think AI and other Tech shares will rally in the days ahead.

I believe most commodities will trend down, although not by a lot. I think the AI boom will continue wether people like it or not.

I think gold is bottoming and will not go down much.

I think over time the markets will price in interest rate cuts and some bonds will rally and there bond proxies too, such as Reits.

Reits are up nicely today despite the down day, international Reits have been going up too.

I think over time people will realize most Government s will inflate to save social spending and to support the current wars.

I believe the world is decentralizing into three or more major blocks and cooporation between nations will continue to break down.

I believe the US block will continue to prosper despite its economic issues. 

I believe the same with the Chinese block.

Same with the Russia/ EU block but there prosperity will be less but most people will accept it and those who dont will immigrate to North America. 

The same can be said with the rest of the world.

Although I think the US could have a so called lost decade, like Japan most investors will pivot to other assets around the world or there own personal business. 

Much like the Japanese did in there three decade down trend.

Thats it for now, thanks for reading. 

Inflation numbers, today,July 14,2026

Todays latest inflation numbers printed today before the US open and came in at .70 basis points or inflation was less than expected down ,70 of one percent. 

I was expecting inflation to be down despite the escalation in oil prices and the continuing war in Iran. 

I believe inflation keeps going down but over time the US government will print money to fund wars, and social spending, like S.S. and other programs. 

I believe the US will do like Europe and Japan and so buying assets and betting currency prices will be down. 

So owning assets like Reits, Gold, and AI Tech will do well overtime.

Although the inflation numbers came in lower than expected bond prices didnt rally much, although low end bonds rallied. I mean shorter term bonds did.

Thats it for now.

July 13,2026, markets down.

It appears we will have another down day today in share markets, at least in the US.

The war in Iran appears to be heating up, and last night when US futures prices opened up gold was down and oil was up 3% to 4%.

Japan was down, Hong Kong im not sure, but some of the Hong Kong ETFS are down this morning in early trading. So I covered part of my short and added to my oil short, NORW, im shorting Norway and today added COAL.

Gold was down, didnt look at silver prices.

Im not sure how much longer commoditys will go down.

I think after we get through the deflation scare, inflation could heat up, but with AI maybe commoditys will keep getting bud up.

Longer term I probably lean towards inflation and higher gold prices, but expect in technology there will be price declines and rising standards of living for most people in the West.

Im biased towards the Government will debase currency, like in Japan to pay for deficits and social spending and whatever wars we have, so over time asset prices will go up as will gold coin prices.

Thats it for today.  Thanks for reading.

Quad 4 to Quad 1 or 2? A rising gold price, with lower interest rates.

I believe right now today, July 11,2026 we are coming out of a Quad 4 environment, which is inflationary, with rising intrest rates, falling commodity prices and falling bond prices. 

I believe next weeks inflation number (print) will suggest inflation is coming down and bond prices will rally. 

In other words markets will start pricing in interest rate declines. 

In that environment gold prices may go up with bond prices. I wonder if the two year bond bear market is over?

I dont know.  If I had to guess we will see more deflation scares, which will cause governments to use inflation to there advantage to shrink the deficits of there respective countries. 

So we may get both and the opportunity to trade them. With AI technology I lean towards lower inflation but expect governments to inflate the money supply to pay for the wars and welfare state.

As the Chinese say, we live in interesting times!

I will continue to own gold coins and shares in foreign countries including the US.

Right now I lean towards China, Hong Kong and Japan. 

I dont care much for Europe expect special opportunities like Nokia, Reits and things to short sell.

We live in fast changing times. I hope my readers take the opportunity to learn about biotechnology and the many opportunities in AI tech and how it will benefit Japan and China, and IBM and maybe Nokia. 

Of course there are more opportunities, such as commoditys and energy to fund all this and who owns or controls them will win I believe. 

Happy Weekend. 

Next weeks inflation print.(#)

Next weeks inflation print, numbers will be released next week.

Current interest rates are at there most recent highs, signaling inflation will be up.

I think that's wrong, I believe we have seen the high for inflation, at least for now.

I think its possible next weeks number will suggest inflation is coming down. So I think the two year bear market in bonds maybe over, at least for now.

If next weeks inflation print does come in lower than expectations then that will cause bond prices to rally, interest rates to lower, and possibly cause the USD dollar to weaken.

If the dollar weakens then I would not be surprised if gold rallies higher, and take emerging market currencys higher and their share markets. 

It may even cause Sterling to rally. Maybe even share markets in the UK will rise.

War in Iran. 

If the war in Iran does not wind down that's one area where I might be wrong. 

If the war heats up the USD probably will stay strong. Inflation unusually high, and interest rates may not come down, thats where I could be wrong.

I believe the Fed. Treasury Department wants a weak USD dollar and lower rates to fund the wars, and deficit. 

So only time will tell.

I basically would buy gold coins here if I didn't own any, or if I was willing to hold them two years or more. I would also own them because they are an invisible asset to own.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

More people talk about health care today.

 I hear more people talking about healthcare on social media, YouTube and X.

There seems to be a consensus that people are unhappy with the high cost of healthcare and and the quality of healthcare.  At least if you live in the US, healthcare can bankrupt you and the premiums on healthcare ins are so high and what you get in return arent worth it.

So people are learning to separate there assets from there name to trusts or assets that are invisible but things that are still legal to do.

There are even people with six figure savings and income with no healthcare ins and then get expensive bills from clinics and hospitals but  play hardball with the bill collecters and often times dont pay and not much happens as far as the bill collector s going to court and getting a judgement.

In fact when the challenge the bill before it goes to courst the hospital admits it defrauded the client with inflated charges and often drops the collection. 

I read about reports of this pretty frequently. 

I dont have an answer to this problem but like to write about here. 

I believe in the future we will have a one payor government program for everyone or there will be massive reform that fixes this because more North Americans are learning to game the system or there just leaving the country so reforms will have to be met or lose the best and brightest, much like whats happening in the E.U. or U.K.

Thats the thought if the day. 

The stress of debt(medical)

Ive been thinking about debt, medical and other debts and the stress of how to pay them if they are overwhelming and you have no job or source of income. 

I was hurt on the job and left with medical bills including an ambulance bill I havent received yet.

It causes a lot of stress as you can imagine and sleepless nights. I call this anxiety. 

I know many people in these circumstances who have these same issues and just as much anxiety. 

I also know people in these circumstances who dont, I envy these people but not as much as I used too. In my circumstances I have done much research to see how bad it could get and what I could do to reduce the worst outcomes. 

It turns out there is a lot.

I learned from Google, which isnt always right that it normally takes three to six years to sue a patient or use the court system to sieze your assets if any or income from a job.

Its actually easier to shield income from a job depending on what state state you live in and same with assets.

If assets are in Texas or Florida and they are ERISA assets (401k) or other pension assets those are best states but New Mexico and Iowa arent to bad either, but the law for ROTH assets are different in different states. Sometimes your very protected other times like in California not as much.

If you move to Florida to get the protection generally speaking it has to be two years before the creditor percues you in count.

All states have different laws on this so its worthwhile to learn where your state falls in all this.

Like I said Iowa and New Mexico arent to bad as far as what creditors can do legally. 

Research 

From the research ive done if you have income or assets there is much to be done to legally protect them.

Theres much you can do if your asset such as government pension is being paid now.

So your age can matter. Its difficult for creditors to size a government pension or the bank account its in. In many places you can have double the pension check in a bank account that cant be siezed, so as long as you keep saving below that amount your ok and creditors can't sieze it, if they do you can file court documents and get it back.

Its similiar with assets such as cars and land or houses but that depends on what state you live in.

With brokerage accounts of course its different. 

Some convert those assets before a fraudulent conveyance can ba claimed which in some states is six months to two years, so what many do is buy assets that are invisible and hide them. So they use delaying tricks to legally slow down the collection time and buy them more time to legally transfer the asset out of there legal name.

Obviously dont break any law, get legal advice and do these things before you have these bills that can bankrupt you. (Medical)

I now have an understanding why wealthy people persue these things and why people resent them for doing so.

It comes down to money and time, which wealthy people have planty of.

I am now learning that lesson late in life and its painful. 

As I learn these things I realize I have more options and less anxiety but also I learn if you talk about these things family and friends can resent you.

I realize many people prefer to be victims of circumstances, which I dont like myself and have come to realize I have to choose a path many dont like.

Thanks for reading. 

How to start over, create a new life in a new country.

I have been planning to write a short article about how to leave your country and start a new life somewhere else like a country in Latin America or S.E. Asia or wherever you prefer to live.

I see alot of videos on YouTube on how much you need to start a new life in another country and it can be a lot or very little. 

Im in the camp where you can get on an airplane for a thousand dollars or less and have a thousand dollars in cash and start over somewhere else, but obviously most people shouldn't do that especially if they are not highly motivated to succeed and dont have a thick skin.

If you really care about what other people think in my opinion its hard to succeed because you often have to be willing to do things that arent conventional that many are unwilling to do.

My opinion is most people need a longer runway than they think.

First things first.

The first thing I would do is save 5,000 to 10,000 dollars first and nowdays id probably save more.

The second thing I would do is have multiple bank accounts with ATM accounts with all of them and the ability to transfer money back and fourth from each of them, so if I have fraud with the account or just lose the ATM card and need to access money from the other account. 

I had a fraud transfer on one of my accounts in Guatemala, called the bank and within hours my account was made whole and transferred some money to my other account withdrew some cash and was on my way.

To many foreigners have had there accounts frozen and cant withdraw money in a foreign country and are SOL.

So having money in cash or on multiple accounts is helpful. 

After I saved enough money to live wherever I wanted, enough to pay my expenses for six months to a year, and five to ten thousand dollars would be enough in the Philippines, then id be working on a way to earn income online.

For me it would be a way to talk on the phone or computer. 

One way thats going away fast is teaching English online and getting paid in dollars or pounds or whatever currency you want.

As long as I can earn enough to pay rent and food and utilities I dont need much, in the Philippines thats1k or less.

Another way many people are earning income is investing in ETFs like covered call ETFs or high dividend ETFs.

If you have enough capital and are willing to trade or invest in dividend ETFs and the income is enough to pay your basic bills you can do it.

Many YouTube channels are saying they have 300,000 USD in capital and its enough to live off of in Asia. 

I know of one you tuber whos account is under 100,000 dollars and earns enough from covered call ETFs and other more conservative ETFs for growth and is basically retired. 

Of course the strategy needs enough capital to last until you get you first pension check or S.S. check.

The third way to earn enough income is starting an online website with an consulting income associated with it.

This is the best way to earn income, and the easiest to grow over time and its what more people are doing as AI changes the economy. 

There are many YouTube channel's that show you how to live a wild camping lifestyle in Europe and North America and how to do it and how little income you need to live that lifestyle. 

These folks dont pay rent and earn income consulting or online jobs and live that lifestyle and live in the US and Latin America. 

I prefer to live in Asia, Philippines or Cambodia. 

I like the culture there, low cost of living and food ect.

As the economy changes I see more men and women living these lifestyles and living overseas. 

I also believe the culture in North America and Europe is changing so fast that it will encourage more young people to move overseas and I believe with pension cuts coming more retirees will retire overseas or live alternative lifestyles in North America. 

I see Canadians and Americans in the deserts of the US and Mexico and it surprises me.

Thanks for reading. 

Gold and Silver coins.

Im not sure if the gold and silver sell off is over now.

I saw the latest interview with Jeffery Christian, who has a wonderful YouTube channel, and publishes the Gold book.

Anyhow his latest interview points out a lot of the bad takes in the gold and silver markets. 

I agree with him that gold and silver bullion markets are still in a bull market and now as in the past there are alot of bull cases that are wrong or at least misinformed. 

Saying that wont make me popular with the gold bug movement, even though I believe investors should own gold coins and believe like Mr Christian governments and wealthy investors will continue to store wealth in gold and silver mostly gold and will continue to lose trust in US Government promises.  

US allies and enemies will continue to see US government promises as worthless much like US Native Americans have viewed the US government promises, treaties they signed with Native Americans. 

As the trust is lost allies and enemies will just continue to trust gold bullion or gold coins, and trust the US dollar less.

Thats not to say the US dollar will lose value faster than the Euro or Yen but that people will measure there wealth against gold bullion rather than US Dollars or Yen ect.

With that said I still continue to believe the British gold sovereigns are a good coins to buy if you like fractional coins, with a low premium.  I like Swiss Helvetias or French Roosters ect.

If you prefer 1/4 ounce gold eagles they are nice too. The premium on 1/10 ounce coins are high now as they always are but its a nice coin too. With gold at 4100,00 an ounce thats pretty expensive for a one once coin, so I prefer British Sovereigns at 1100,00 per coin.

Anyhow thats it for now.

The best income opportunities now. Shares.

I believe the best dividend, income opportunities today in the share markets are, REITs, the Infrastructure ETFs, or CEF, then probably BDCs, Business Development Companies. 

I would lean towards Reits in the US, Japan,  Singapore ect. There are reits like BLDG, which holds reits from Japan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and Europe to Canada. 

It yields 5% to 6% has pretty good diversification and has an management team that leans toward trend following and rules based decision making, which I like.

There are other reits that use leverage and that invest all over the world and I like them too.

I like reits because of there debts, leverage and rising earnings in an inflationary environment. I like them because if we continue to get inflation which may happen, they have inflation escalation clauses in there contracts where they can continue raising rents and paying down leverage and increase there dividends. 

Some have pretty undervalued assets in Asia where the economies continue to grow and give you diversification from North America. 

Infrastructure projects 

I like Infrastructure projects inside North America because of the demand for energy from AI projects and other countries as we the US continue our wars for energy dominance and the same for commodities and other minerals. 

I like AMLP, and other ETFs that are similar. They have 7% yields and  are correcting right now so you may be able to pick up shares cheaper and for yields closer to 9%.  There are Closed End Funds that are in the space to. I prefer ETFs and CEF than the specific companies because of K1 requirements or fees to get the tax benefits. K1 fees arent that bad if you use tax software like TurboTax. 

I basically believe Infrastructure projects will be built out and given favorable tax treatment to investors and they will have built in inflation escalators so every year they will raise dividends and pay down debt and will protect you against inflation better than bonds. 

If these projects are in Canada and US and Mexico, I believe they will be valued higher than projects in other places.

I want a rising dividend income and be protected from inflation. 

BDC

Business development companies have been hit hard.

I mean the publically traded ones, like ARCC, ot TSLX or many of the others like OBDC, ect.

There are ETFs that buy a basket of those assets but I prefer to buy specific ones lime MAIN or ARCC ect.

They have nice yields now over 10% now.

I like them because of there business model to lend to smaller companies and get good terms.

I prefer them to bonds, there management teams have been around for decades and have built experienced teams that are very valuable and knowledgeable about there space and taking that experience to Europe and other places. 

I believe the recent sell off is a bit to much and dont believe AI Technology will make there business model worthless. 

If anything AI will make real estate thats unique more valuable, which is why wealthy people are buying the most soht after real estate keep going up in value, look at St. Barts in the Caribbean. We may see islands in the South Pacific do similar because of these trends, which is why I prefer Reits is Asia. 

One more thing should be said in this article. 

I still like trend following and growth shares or small cap in North America and Asia. 

But because of my age I need more dependable income streams which is why I prefer the above ideas.

I now understand why my Grandfather owned reits and utes. I will but utilities again soon if theres a selloff in UTG or some of the covered call funds.

Anyhow thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

I had an accident at work, June 18,2026

 

On June 18, Thursday morning  I was working at Maverick, the gas station in Alamogordo, New Mexico. 

Its at the corner of highway 54.

I was working the night shift, 12am to 8am.

Sometime after 1am I was at the hospital in Alamogordo, New Mexico. 

The doctors said I was assaulted. Or the injuries suggested that, so they reported it to the police,thats what they told me.

The doctors asked the police to see the camera footage from the gas station and they the doctors said they didnt see an assault. 

They are still suspicious that I did not just fall down and thats what the police suggested, the doctor said my injuries suggest I was assaulted from behind maybe pushed or tripped. 

It happened at work and I remember nothing. It was not reported to workmans comp, so I called workmans comp to report it, the lady their said its illegal for Maverick not to report it and the police were their as witnesses. 

So over time Maverick said they would report it. So yesterday I got a call from the insurance company that Maverick finally reported it, even though initially they told me the woulnt.

They have not cooporated in the least, and so far refuse to pay my hospital bill, I was in the hospital 5 days, and the ambulance bill.

I will dispute this and if I am able too, sue them. It happened at work and tje doctors seem to think I was assaulted and Maverick seems to want to drag there feet the whole time.

The other isdue is I dont have a six figure bank account to pay this bill.

I have a lot of stress from the whole thing and realize it will be difficult to get another job.

I also realize I have little money to be independent on my own, so  hoping I can live with my sister in Iowa.

At least in theory in Iowa I have health insurance although not for long but I dont know. 

These stresses from huge health care bills Americans get are a big problem now, and I am not the only one who gaves these issues. 

I also realize I will have to start some kind of business, where I work for myself and save income in a way that cant be siezed by creditors. 

This is intimidating for me to contemplate and think about. 

I also realize many North Americans are in a similar boat where they can lose their income,job to AI technology and other changes that are happening all over the world and there is not much any government or corporation can do to stop this, weather in Russia pr China or North America. 

In many ways I want to dissappear into the Northern Mariana Islands,  or Saipan  maybe Philippines. 

Thanks for reading.

We are entering a economic slow down in North America.

I believe the economy is slowing down. 

I think the rate of inflation is coming down to, meanwhile M2 is going up.

I mean the money supply is going up and over time, not now inflation and assets will keep going up.

In the meantime I believe bonds, real estate, reits will keep trending up, including utes and possibly consumer staples.

Tech will trend down and BTC and probably silver and copper. 

We maybe getting closer to a bottom in the price of gold.

If silver was under 50 id probably buy some if I had the cash.

Not much else to say.

The Iran war is over, maybe.

 

The President said there is a agreement to end the war in Iran.

Most Asian matkets rallied on the news, even Japan. 

Oil was down 4% or so on the open, gold up more than 3% I believe. 

Most analysts dont seem to believe the war with Iran is over. I believe it will take a month or more for Iran to cooperate with the United States if ever.

Well for now there is euphoria and limited celebration, so we will see how it goes.

To get oil and other commoditys flowing in the Straight of Hormuz will take months of trust to build up and years of repair in all the countries involved in the bombing. 

The good news is there will be at least a few months for ships to move and readjust to the new reality. 

It will be tough to get work crews in their even with higher pay.

I hope it goes well for everyone. 

Thanks for reading.