The invasion of Spain (Ceuta)

The current and ongoing invasion of Ceuta,(Spain) is pretty interesting.

I believe Ceuta is an enclave in Morocco, that belongs to Spain.

I understand Ceuta is an tax haven for Spain but now its a landing point for poor Africans and Muslims. 

Its interesting to watch all the footage of these young men landing in Ceuta and then running from authorities and in some cases committing crimes.

There was even one young man who admitted to murder from where he came from and wanted to live in Spain and start his life over.

From the images its mostly or all young men.

These young men will be givin free housing, food and cash benefits I presume. 

When I think about it, they havent paid any tax in Spain or the EU but will be givin all the legal protection to live their and benefits without having out in time to pay tax.

There parents presumably havent lived their or paid tax. I assume the local population will reset that.

Id guess both sides will resent each other and commit crimes against each others.

The wealthy will just move to safe places or other countries and the tax base of Spain and the EU will decline. 

As an North American its sad to see. Its sadder to see the average voter see this but still votes for these policies. 

The average voter in the EU sees this too. It seems the EU is in decline and support for the EU is in decline. 

Id say the whole continent is decentralizing and fast.

If Africans keep moving in and refusing to be a part of their community then Europeans will immigrate if they can, either legally or not.

Id say US LLS will be in great demand from them so they can work online, do business online or both from anywhere they land, so the US Dollar will be in great demand. 

All this illegal immigration and all these wars will create a new decentralized economy and culture all over the world including the US, EU, Russia, and China. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

Friday, The reinflation trade, Quad 3

The Quad 3 continues. (Hedgeye) The reinflation continues. 

For the last few days the momentum trade has been in the toilet. 

It looks like today we will get a bounce in some of that stuff and a chance to reshort it.

The broadening rally in the share market continues, Healthcare, Dividend, value, bond proxies, Reits ect.

So far bonds have been in the toilet, speaking of bonds, more disinflation and deflationists are caveing, they are at the point where they say publicly that they sold their bonds and believe the Fed isnt serious about rising inflation.

Mike Green has said as much in podcasts. He thinks there maybe a deflation scare but it will be met with more inflation policies from the Fed.

I think he is right. He even admits to owning to much gold.

I think there is a rising concensus that the Government and Fed will bail everyone out with rising inflation. 

Hugh Hendry has said as much about Japan. 

Anyways I think rising inflation may cause a rising share market in some countries, despite how in the past rising inflation led to down share markets. 

There has been so much wealth created in the world that much of it will go to traditional assets such as gold, and real estate. 

Markets have changed and evolved so now people will use that information and wealth to protect themselves from these government policies. 

Or maybe im wrong and voters will vote to cut their benefits. I dont know but will go with a trend following policy, with a gold coin holding.

Thanks for reading. 

"Flows" More war, and possibly WW3

Everyones expecting a bear market in shares, at least in the US. If the flows of the pension funds in the US slow down that could be the start of a panic/bear market in shares.

Then we have WW3 with Iran and Russia, China with Ukraine and Europe. 

I keep seeing Mike Green interviews where he describes a senario where we have another Great Depession with a decade or more of lower share prices. 

His typical solution to avoid that kind of drawdown is to be diversified in bonds which few investors find acceptable. 

If we have rising inflation now few investors will want to buy bonds because in the last few years bond investors have got their heads handed to them.

I can see why an investor would buy bonds but dont think many will, it makes investing in managed futures ETFs more acceptable,  they can buy the bonds or short them and manage that risk.

I do agree with Mike Green on the dangers of market place risk and how few investors want to deal with these things even though what he says makes sense.

Anyway listening to Mr. Green brings my enthusiasm for shares down a bit.

Im at least invested in shares around the world including bond proxies like Reits, I like the Reits in Asia, Hong Kong and Japan, even Malaysia. 

Of course I like Australia and Europe,  Canada not as much.

At least I have shares in those markets and bond proxies there like infrastructure ect.

EB Tucker. 

Then there is EB Tucker, he says ride the trend, AKA trend following, which I agree with and in his latest letter says we worry to much about wars and bear markets and hes right. Sometimes if we do as he suggests and just but a few gold coins and a few mobile home shacks in the country and just put the rest in shares we would be better off.

He likes things in Japan and US out of favour stuff and things like computer security ect.

In general I like his outlook on things. He suggests just living in the moment doing what you like and buying a few gold coins and spending time with family and friends doing what you like, he likes tennis. 

I like hiking in the mountains and desert. I think Mr. Tucker is right.

Hugh Hendry. 

Then theres Hugh Hendry. He like long term trends.

The share market in Japan was down 32 years I think. In the last year its up 50% or more.

I think hes still pretty bullish on Japan shares. I believe he thinks they could rally another 300% if not more. Then yen could go to 200 or higher against the US Dollar. 

I think he maybe right. I think AI will help the share market in Japan and people will keep bidding up the shares their.

He gets a lot of hell for expressing that view, and others because people want perfect timing. 

What I like about EB Tucker and Mr.Hendry is they like following the long term trend and just living a good life.

Mr. Hendry has a nice crib in St. Barts and builds many cribs their for successful people.

I think hes right, as the economy decentralizes successful people will move to safe places where they can live well. 

For people like me that means Philippines or Northern Mariana Islands. 

Taxes there arent much and people leave you alone. 

Thats it for now.

Thanks for reading. 

The world seems to be decentralizing.

The world seems to be decentralizing. 

I watch a lot of videos of people around the world and have seen a trend that seems to be new.

I noticed from North America to Europe people are dropping out of society and the workforce. 

I see young men from the UK just up and quitting there jobs and pack a bag and either walk hitch hike or ride a bike all over the country and documenting there journey on YouTube or other social media accounts. 

These are older men too. Like close to my age mid fifties. They just pack a bag walk and sometimes work part time jobs and camp out or work a few days to weeks for cash and then move on.

They seem happy and dont seem incentised to provide for a girlfriend or wife. Or to save for retirement. 

I see this trend in North America everywhere. I see people move into there cars or vans and just drive and park and go wild camping and either working part-time online or work jobs where they work enough to save money for there next few months of expenses. 

I see women starting this trend too. Its sad to see women either homeless or living in there car or van because there pension isnt enough to cover rent and there basic expenses. 

I see this a lot in North America. There seems to be a trend of giving up despite a somewhat growing economy.

I think to myself what this trend means or points too.

I tend to think the cost of government is getting to high and people are dropping out of the workforce. 

They would rather collect government recoursers and work for cash than pay the rising inflation tax and rising income tax and other government imposed fees or tax.

It seems like many are withdrawing there consent of government intervention in the economy. 

I see this trend in Canada, UK and even places like Russia, I wonder about China but dont know.

I wonder how long this trend of the economy decentralizing can last before we see government address this or clamp down more on people's liberty. 

As technology changes it will easier for average men and women to earn income from the economy, either online or offline and get paid in cash or in kind and live wherever they want. 

We can see from migration patterns, government has no incentive to stop illegal immigration and taxing citizens to pay for immigrants services such as housing, healthcare and income, despite the immigrants not having paid tax.

I believe its why I see all these men and women dropping out of the society, and workforce. 

Anyhow seeing all these trends clashing with the i trests of citizens and then the same with AI technology is interesting. 

Seeing this in Russia of all places is interesting too and much of Eastern Europe. 

Thanks for reading. 

Week in review. (Shares, Trend following)

N  . Hb n   gf v ggf f g  gz cgvg   v vg  g  bv v     n        b   b  g b

W.  G  el l Fri f day when mav rkets clos. N d,   we saw Reit gs up nibcely (BLDG, XL Rx  E, DE    S K) jus.  Bt t  o. Gname    a fxew. G C   g G.  B  vgvgg

  

DIVP WAS UP 2% i think too, so valube shares hv vb g ba  cveg   been up to angd quite a  bit.

    H  gg

ETFs like SCHY, SCvfb gvg v g vgv g HD to na  meb  a few have  bbeen tr be     up nicelg f. .  y too.

B vg gf  gng h s g   

    Gg 

I   these tren. . Bds t bo continue for awh  ile. Divid hend shares have bee   hn doicng well and much of Te nv chnology shares or the mag c gv zv  b7 or bag 7 as  gt hey are refe  grr ged to are  u down and by a  lot. Same with chip c gg ompanies in Korea.

I have been shorting momentum sha r ves such as the  mag 7 and the E TFs they represent. V  g hn

I made quite a bit on this down nvgdraft.gbv b

  

I w   chould be a bv. Juc yer of BUG thv e  nyg. ETF of software band secu  brity  s . C 

B

I st  illb think they   willb trend.v v  g v

 G b  

Im stilg v l not sure about Gold, Silver they are still in a down trend but expect that to change. Much like ETH or Etherum.c  

 B   vv   yg g

Same with BTC its.  f.   Bcv vgstill   btrendivng down bu t might reverse soon. T v. T vu

V bvv.  b   g v 

Ma  ny commoditys ar. V  e trending, WEAT and. its. G friends have been trending, possibly because of tH he wars.

Friday I got the opportunity to buy WEAT and a few other ETFs with commodity exposure and oil and gas.

Gas or Natural Gas in Europe is trending quit a bit. Many trend following ETFs such as MFUT have been catching the wave and have really recovered nicely. 

As I get older I like and enjoy trend following and use it in my own trading/investmenting.

If I have income shares as long term investments that arent trending i just take them down to a minimum size and wait to size it up when it trends.

Thats how I feel about BDCs and leveraged bond funds ect.

Long term I expect governments to inflate there currencies and default on there promises to people through budget cuts and of course rising inflation. 

I expect deflation scares but they will be met with currency debasement. Probably why I like fractional gold coins.

I expect AI Tech to through a wrench into my expectations. Maybe it will give us deflation or rising liberty, its possible but unlikely for most of the world, but expect the unexpected. 

Again Probably why I like gold coins and trending shares. I expect inflation to possibly keep rising share markets and real estate markets. 

I also expect more decentralizing in the economy and culture. I expect more people to dropout of society, especially the wealthy but also the lower income people, I dont expect governments to like this.

I assume they willuse propaganda to keep people in the system, but from what i have seen of videos on Russia and the EU and North America its not working. 

But to be honest it seems the dumbing down of most people is working and working to favour governments and corporations, elites. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

Cleaning my ears.(How To)

I clean my ears with this device.  It has a front piece that hooks on and shoots water in three directions. 

You fill it up in the sink with warm water and push it into your ears to clean out the wax.

first you put Hydragine peroxide in your ear. Let it soak in for 20 minutes, it eats out the bad stuff in your ear then loosens up the wax.

Then you shoot the warm water in and press the water out in your ear, and it shoots out big chunks of ear wax into your sink.

You may have to do the process a few times to get out all the wax, it works and all the things you need to do this can be bought at Walmart or Amazon. 

Anyhow it worked for me.

It seems the wars continue.

It seems the war in Iran and Russia continues. The markets dont seem to care.

Id also say the reflation continues too.

Although I dont think inflation will tick up much and in time will come down, and come down enough where the government will feel secure enough to reflate the economy more than people will realize. 

I believe over time most western countries will inflate there money supply to pay for wars and pensioners and other welfare schemes. 

I dont think we will see deflation but like Matt Smith and Doug Casey say its possible and in that case id want gold coins and the cash that goes with it.

I see most people dont have much cash saved and according to Matt Smith there was a study or questionnaire that says 30% of people shop lift. In other parlance shrinkage is going up and high already. 

As I have said in previous articles, the culture is changing fast.

As people see that you wont get prosecuted for theft or fraud more people will accept doing it to survive. 

Speaking of shop lifting, when I was a kid in Baltimore, in the 1990s there was a lot of shop lifting by employees where I worked in a store and at the end of the shift they would check your back pack to see if you stole things. 

So this trend was there in the 90s in Baltimore. 

Wars

Back to the wars, I think wr will see Russia strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons soon. 

I dont think the US will do much. We will see. I dont think Europe will do much, except more migration out of Europe if you have money.

Iran, im not sure what will happen there. The trade routes will be disruptived permanently and we could see the decline in that part of the world.

We may see Iran change too, maybe in a good way, so far its not good their for most people. 

I think in the western world people will decentralize.

The economy will decentralize and im not sure if thats good or bad but think it will happen and cause a new prosperity. 

We could go back to more local economies and customs ans traditions like before world war one and two.

I think world trade will change, maybe more taxes so less trade and that will encourage more independent economics. 

Same with food and medicine and everything else.

It will probably make for a better world. Then add AI technology.

Thats it for now, thanks for reading. 

The world is changing.

The world is changing faster than I can readjust too.

As the world changes I cant believe how fast these changes are.

In the news I see Ukraine and Russia continue to use drones to hurt each other and destroy infrastructure and property.

The Iran war same thing, I believe parts of the Middle East are becoming irrelevant, not Iran but the surrounding countries. 

INFLUENCERS, 2008 financial Crisis. 

Ever sense the financial crisis there has been changes going on underneath the service. 

The Influencers seemed to come to power in 2008. Nothing much has changed except now influencers have more power and influence and thats  changing everything. 

In the economy there are more people walking away from traditional carriers. 

There are more people starting online and offline businesses. 

There are more people jumping ship and moving overseas or just living in vans and or wild camping while they walk or bike across the country.

I see this in many Western countries even in the East.

As most politicians and governing elites lose legitimacy people stop producing like they did before. 

It seems like the wealth of the world is changing. 

Remonitization Of Gold.

I see the same thing in gold too. In Turkey you can deposit gold in a bank and earn interest income, im not sure if its payable in gold.

More wealthy people are buying gold as well as Governments. 

People dont seem to trust Governments to honor there promises to pay or pay there bond holders interest or pension obligations.

Even in North America people are starting to buy gold coins, like they do in Asia or the Middle East. 

Maybe the Turkish Government sold gold but the citizens are buying same in India. It seems the trust is gone.

Meanwhile in the US we are back to the reflation trade.

Thats it for today. 

Ukrainian protesters, Russia war, Iran bombing, WW3

It seems we are in WW3 and few want to admit in in the Western World. 

I have noticed more YouTube videos on the protesting in Ukraine against the current president.

It appears he is corrupt and promoting people who aren't well regarded and firing the men who are.

So while theres a war against Russia people in Ukraine arent happy with the way current elites there are treating them.

Russia bombing. 

The Ukrainians are bombing there ships and oil facilities that produce diesel and gasoline for cars and that maybe causing rising prices and shortages. It could be there are shortages because its summer their and demand for fuel is much higher than normal. 

A similar thing is happening in the US and other countries, I dont know exactly. 

The trust of Russians with their government elites is going down and not good.

More Russians are planning to leave the country if they can or they are moving to smaller cities to avoid the worst of it.

A similar thing is happening in Ukraine. 

Europe 

In Europe more people are disappointed with rising cost of living, rising tax and inflation. 

And less healthcare and other government services like police protection from immigrants and rising crime.

The same could be said of the UK too.

In Germany more people are leaving the country to avoid the draft and older people leave to avoid rising inflation and cost of living.

Employer's leave because of rising energy costs and tax ect.

All this is a loss of trust between average men and women and the elites and governing classes.

You can sense the culture is changing everywhere. 

In the US.

In the US more soldiers are coming home in body bags.

The war in Iran is heating up and not going away.

Theirs a sense the US has already lost the war and it wasn't in the US interest anyway, and Americans are paying the price and they resent it.

Everywhere people are sensing they are being lied too.

I believe this is causing a change in culture and maybe the beginning of a worldwide decentralization. 

I dont know what will happen but with AI and other technology it will be harder to govern people without their consent and have a productive economy. 

We will see what happens. 

I prefer to be optimistic than negative but plan to enjoy life either way.

Thanks for reading. 

End of the week commentary on markets.

Its the end of the week, Friday and share markets are down. It appears oil maybe in a bull market.  Its at least approximately near its trend line.

I still dont think we are in a bull market for oil, but in a few weeks or less we will know. 

Most or many bond market proxies did well this week. Bonds with three year or less maturitys did well, Reits in the US and offshore did well, most BDCs did ok too over the week.

Gold is still below the trend line but maybe getting ready for a reflation environment next month.

Japan and Korean share markets, or chip and memory companies were down a lot.

My opinion is in the next few months we may get a reflation or maybe just a bear market in the US.

I believe we are in an WW3 situation which short term could be deflationary longer term inflationary but with an sicking share market but rising gold and commodity prices.

AI, Chat GBT CLAUDE.

I see more commentaries from younger people using the paid and free versions of the above mentioned products and findings ways to use them in unique ways to increase there productivity and actually make products people will buy.

These young people are learning these new technologies will basically equal free labour and it excites them and scares them.

They have found sense there the first ones to use them and understand them they can make a fortune before everyone else and invest the money into unique real estate or dividend income shares and not really have to work again.

I can see how even a small income from AI products and services will change peoples lives in ways there parents and grandparents could only dream of.

I can see if you want to beat the system you will need to learn how to use these tools or be an unique creative human to earn income.

I can also see how some things like food and other products like medicine and other things will get cheap and if you have a small income from shares or other sources you will not need a career like your parents to survive.

I think there will be downsides to these technologies but if you can avoid them your life will be content and productive. 

Its still early in this cycle so who knows how things develop but im optimistic despite a WW3 situation if you live in the Americas or North America youll be fine.

Thats it for now thanks for reading.

Market update. Shares

Markets update, July 16, 2026.

Another down day this morning. I believe oil will continue to trend down. I think AI and other Tech shares will rally in the days ahead.

I believe most commodities will trend down, although not by a lot. I think the AI boom will continue wether people like it or not.

I think gold is bottoming and will not go down much.

I think over time the markets will price in interest rate cuts and some bonds will rally and there bond proxies too, such as Reits.

Reits are up nicely today despite the down day, international Reits have been going up too.

I think over time people will realize most Government s will inflate to save social spending and to support the current wars.

I believe the world is decentralizing into three or more major blocks and cooporation between nations will continue to break down.

I believe the US block will continue to prosper despite its economic issues. 

I believe the same with the Chinese block.

Same with the Russia/ EU block but there prosperity will be less but most people will accept it and those who dont will immigrate to North America. 

The same can be said with the rest of the world.

Although I think the US could have a so called lost decade, like Japan most investors will pivot to other assets around the world or there own personal business. 

Much like the Japanese did in there three decade down trend.

Thats it for now, thanks for reading. 

Inflation numbers, today,July 14,2026

Todays latest inflation numbers printed today before the US open and came in at .70 basis points or inflation was less than expected down ,70 of one percent. 

I was expecting inflation to be down despite the escalation in oil prices and the continuing war in Iran. 

I believe inflation keeps going down but over time the US government will print money to fund wars, and social spending, like S.S. and other programs. 

I believe the US will do like Europe and Japan and so buying assets and betting currency prices will be down. 

So owning assets like Reits, Gold, and AI Tech will do well overtime.

Although the inflation numbers came in lower than expected bond prices didnt rally much, although low end bonds rallied. I mean shorter term bonds did.

Thats it for now.

July 13,2026, markets down.

It appears we will have another down day today in share markets, at least in the US.

The war in Iran appears to be heating up, and last night when US futures prices opened up gold was down and oil was up 3% to 4%.

Japan was down, Hong Kong im not sure, but some of the Hong Kong ETFS are down this morning in early trading. So I covered part of my short and added to my oil short, NORW, im shorting Norway and today added COAL.

Gold was down, didnt look at silver prices.

Im not sure how much longer commoditys will go down.

I think after we get through the deflation scare, inflation could heat up, but with AI maybe commoditys will keep getting bud up.

Longer term I probably lean towards inflation and higher gold prices, but expect in technology there will be price declines and rising standards of living for most people in the West.

Im biased towards the Government will debase currency, like in Japan to pay for deficits and social spending and whatever wars we have, so over time asset prices will go up as will gold coin prices.

Thats it for today.  Thanks for reading.