Its a rainy day here in the Midwest (Clear Lake, Iowa)

Its raining in Clear Lake, Iowa, here on a Monday. 

Ive been here a few weeks sense leaving Alamogordo, NM. 

Its getting chilly here and the leaves are falling and it seems from my research there are less jobs now.

Its the end of the world as we know it.

Ok its not the end of the world and it appears chaotic from all the news events we get from Europe and the Middle East, but its probably just the Fourth Turning as I understand it.

I read the book years ago and thought it entertaining but not really thinking things would fall apart in North America or Europe for that matter but here we are.

AI technology appears to be changing the world in ways I dont really understand and changing it very fast, so fast I cant readjust to it, at least when it comes to lost jobs, faster moving share markets both up and down and similiar with this two year bear market in bonds.

In my lifetime most college grads would have a decent chance to get a new job that pays well and lasts at least a decade, those days seem over.

Politically it seems like the people are divided. Culturally it seems similiar and with young versus old, and men versus women. People just arent coming together and it devides us and helps our enemies, or at least thats what I see.

The biggest thing I see is our American culture is changing fast, we dont seem to have the same values, our rule of law is breaking down so you cant plan for the future in safe ways. People dont have families anymore, and depency on the State is at record levels. 

More people are on SSI or Social Security, even immigrants especially people are on medicaid or medicare ect. UBI is popular among both the left and right.

Now its election season and the war in Iran and Russia rolls on.

What to do?

Id like to say people ask me all the time where to escape too? But that never happens. 

Now more and more Europe, the UK and many places in the Middle East and Asia including China have digital currency and digital ID and digital scores to track and trace wherever you go and whatever you do. 

The authorities can shut off your bank account, or debank you. Shut you out of the healthcare system, the food system everything and really theres no safe guaranteed place to run too.

Latin America 

In Latin America there will be these laws and regulations but not as enforced because of cultural reasons, I think in South America it will be difficult to enforce these things, there is still cash and a culture that doesn't enforce these things, and a culture of corruption much like Ukraine and Russia.

So that will be an option for some. Pick good regions, especially in Mexico or Guatemala ect. Same with Brazil, Southern Brazil is more tolerant of North Americans, similiar in Uruguay at least in most of the country. I dont know what to make of Paraguay. 

They are tightening up immigration but many countries are, but for North Americans its still easy to arrange and stay there.

Asia

I prefer Asia but recognize culturally I woulnt fit in accept for maybe Philippines but still would stand out.

Most of Asia at least the prosperous parts like rules and culturally expect you to follow them. If they are reasonable to you its safe their and very different.

The cost of living in most places isnt really high.

Personally I prefer Philippines, or Cambodia if you dont mind the Chinese influence.  Even in Philippines the Chinese are making moves, but at least in Philippines its still affordable safe if your not stupid, and the visa is easy to get and maintain. 

Saipan is part of the US, its a territory of the US. Its part of the Northern Mariana Islands. 

Even though its in the middle of nowhere its one of the better choices for some.

Its English speaking almost half the people are Filipino. So culturally its similiar to the Philippines. 

The cost of living is reasonable, but most things cost more if they are imported. Its not a big island. 

Only 50,000 people or less. Everyone knows everyone so its safe and unpopular laws from the US arent enforced, which I like.

Its in Asia so you have to fly to Korea or Japan or the Philippines or wherever for better healthcare. 

Taxes are half as much as the US.

Of course theres a lot of negatives. For many opportunities youd have to go to Asia, which isnt to expensive. 

Theres only one hospital. 

The population isnt growing. 

You have to like the quiet life and wet markets if you want an affordable life.

Anyways these arent the only options. There are many more.

Thanks for reading. 

Hedgeye....

 Many times I make comments on Quad 4 or Quad 2 or where I believe where we are for the economy in reference to the economy. 

Anyways its the service I use.

I like it, Here is the linkhttps://hedgeyeriskmanagementllc.referralrock.com/l/MARTINHONN17/

Cool carbon steel knives.

Esty knives. Carbon steel and sheaths. 

These are some interesting knives I bought on esty for 45 dollars and up. The one above was 60 plus If I remember right.

I like the sheaths and the carbon steel. They are also not much cost wise.

The one above ia pocket knive with sharpen tool on the sheath. The picture isnt the best quality, so not sure you can see it.

These are well made knives and not much to buy. The quality is good too. Usually good quality costs much more.

The above picture maybe my favorite one. I really like the sheaths too, im a bit surprised how well they are stitched. 

Anyhow I probably bought too.

Thanks for reading.

I like some of the current YouTube vloggers, While many don't.

(Cambodia, Siem Reap)

Gold fish.

I think the above photo is Siem Reap, at the mall entrance. I think they are gold fish, anyways I still have the fotos in my phone.

It brings back memories of living their for six months or more a few years ago.

I bring this up because I see more YouTube videos on people describing there lifestyle living in Cambodia or Philippines for 300 to 500 USD per month and it seems to trigger a lot of people to leave comments that its not possible or why would you live like that, or its better to live like a slave in North America or Europe than live frugally in Asia and build up an online business or a brick and mortar business their.

I like to see how people live in these places for much less and escape the rat race and appear to have a much better life, despite living on a lot less.

Im actually surprised more homeless Americans who get online income dont get a passport and just leave.

I think culturally online apps have rewired many Americans brains and made them less open to the possibilities. 

Im not sure to be honest, why there is so much hostility to people leaving the West and living on 1k or less while they build an income somewhere, where they are treated well and are welcomed. 

Anyway, its not impossible to find apartments in the Philippines for 80 to 150 USD and up.

Its even possible to get them less, and they are pretty nice and in safe neighborhoods.

The biggest concern is makeing sure you have access to water and not in a flood zone, if your in the Manila area.

In the province, these issues are less but the downside is access to healthcare and education opportunities for your kids or similiar opportunities for adults who want access to different people and places that only the capital city can offer.

In the province though things are much cheaper, the slower pace of life is more interesting and also being in nature is easier.

I liked swimming with sea horses and tropical fish in the province of the Philippines (Samar). 

The beach life their was easy to access and affordable to use and experience. 

There are nice beach resorts in Luzon, to be sure, and price wise not that much to stay in on the weekends and eat seafood and swim on the beach, compared to America or Hawaii. 

My biggest issue wasnt cost of living but making money and health-care. I was there a few years ago but am referring to when I lived their twenty years ago.

I enjoy seeing yound Western Europeans living their on much less than I did and showing how anyone can do this but also showing the pitfalls too.

I see North Americans to making videos too. Usually from Canada or the US but from everywhere.  Even Russians and Mexicans and I see Africans settling in Philippines or Thailand making videos of their experiences. 

The changing times.

I think we will see more people leave the ratt race and settle in other countries and live a quieter life.

I believe as baby boomers and gen xers retire or retire earlier because of lack of traditional employment this will happen. 

As the cost of retirement goes up for baby boomers the Government s of the world will inflate currencies to pay for retirement and healthcare benefits and the rising cost of immigration into to Western World. 

As this happens younger men and women will escape the West if it doesn't address these issues. 

In fact I believe we are seeing the beginning of these trends in North America and Europe. 

I just wonder how much longer we can experience a lower cost of living in places like Cambodia and Philippines. 

What I can say is enjoy it now while you still can.

Thanks for reading. 

It seems the economy is slowing down.(Quad 4)

Seward, Alaska 

Well its a cool day here in Clear Lake, Iowa. 

Today is Friday, markets are down quite a bit so many of my short sells are profitable. So I covered a lot of shorts this morning. 

I finally started a long in bonds, but expect to get some pull backs to add to it.

It seems like the economy is slowing down. The Tech arena is selling off today as is Private Equity, and other things, including silver, gold,and other commodities. 

I noticed some small caps have rallied quite a bit, but I'm still short the Russel Index.

Anyhow thats it for markets. 

The culture is changing. The Fourth Turning.

I notice more men and women are dropping out of society. I see it more with men, but have noticed this is happening with women too.

You can see it on YouTube, there is a channel with a women in AZ I think who bought raw land and is building a house in the desert and finding online ways to earn income for herself and daughter. 

There are more examples of this. People are dropping out and living on reduced income and living frugally and seem to enjoy it.

Many are starting Websites and YouTube channels and monetizing it and earning enough without working a day job in a brick and mortor business. 

It seems to be preferred to earning more, buying a house and getting medical benefits. 

You see this with channels on living overseas too. I watch the ones where people are saying they live on 300 to 500USD a month in S.E. Asia. 

Many of these channels get hate comments and resentment because people are choosing to leave the system and living cheaply in Philippines or places like Cambodia or Thailand. 

Theres even disbelief you can rent for 80 to 120 or even less if you want to in those places, and spen a few hundred on food utilities and immigration fees.

Its like the slaves have left the plantation and discovered they can live free and not be dependent on government or the slave owner.

At least thats my opinion. The shadows on the cave walls come to mind.(Plato)

Anyway I enjoy those YouTube channels and seeing people enjoying there lives overseas and the ones who stay in the States.

Bicycle life.

There a channel I enjoy watching, where a gentleman in his 60s I believe lives on a bike, has no apartment, camps at night, wild camping or camps in sheds he either owns or friends of his.

He works online for income and I think does odd jobs to pay his expenses in life and is planning to take his life on the road show, South America, and El Salvador, I think.

He can live the same life with less hassle from fellow Americans and law enforcement. 

He gets resentment from people because he lives well, is not homeless but doesn't pay rent and lives we..but again thats my opinion. 

One more thing. Dividends and Covered Call ETFs.

There is another gentleman who lives in Asia mainly but visits other regions too.

He has a YouTube site, earns income from it but spends about 1,500 to sometimes 2,000 USD a month traveling around Asia.

He used to be an contractor offshore, made good money, got the 100k earned income credit, so payed little or no income tax, saved more than 300K and invested it in covered call ETFs and other dividents ETFs like BDCs and growing dividend income funds.

He earns enough income from that, so he can spend what he needs and reinvest whats left and grow his capital base.

I like his videos too. He seems to enjoy the slow paces like in Thailand ect. He sees his family and kids to, usually in Indonesia, if I remember right.

These are all alternatives to the usual life, and none as far as I know has gotten retirement income from Social Security or private pensions.

One last comment. 

Theres another gentleman who lives in Mexico,  The broke millionaire, hes Canadian I think.

He retired from the rat race of North America and burned down his business and I think rebuilt his life from nothing and now lives on a piece of raw land he and his friends bought, built a house and goes surfing everyday and makes YouTube videos about it.

He has a consulting service for income I believe, make a grand a month or less and lives pretty well from what I see.

Anyway this is how culture is changing and is probably an indication of how the loss of confidence is turning many men and women away from our traditional lifestyle and seems to indicate a lack of trust in the establishment and is another clue of The Fourth Turning. 

Thanks for reading. 

Inflation numbers up.

Inflation numbers up today. People now expect the Fed may raise interest rates at there next meeting. I think we may have one more Inflation report thats unexpectedly high then we will see expectations for lower rates and a slower economy.

Right now we are in a quad 2 environment (@hedgeeye)

Soon maybe sooner than I realize it will be quad 4 and a much slower economy and a bond market rally which many dont expect. 

As of now you can short bonds and bond proxies and make money. Soon maybe in the next few months bonds will rally. 

We live in interesting times as the Chinese like to say.

Today you could have shorted various things and covered for a nice profit. 

Thanks for reading.

Another down day in share prices, EU, Asia, North America.

( Clear Lake, Iowa)

Another quad 2 day today. @Hedgeeye

Markets were down, all over the world,  my shorts did well, covered some and opened a few new ones in Industrials and retail, and closed some. XLI is one I closed some out.

Software shares were down some were up and generally speaking they are up quite a lot.

Same with healthcare, Japan appears to be trending. 

Anyway, I was down more thanI wanted but overtime going up.

Cant add much. It appears inflation overtime will come down but not today.

The economy maybe slowing, and the wars drag on.

I think there is to much complacency in markets right now and we will soon have an deflation scare, or disinflation scare in a few months and then it maybe time to buy bonds and bond proxies. 

Anyhow, im in Iowa and will enjoy the sunset here.

Thanks for reading. 

P.S. i still miss Alaska!

Quad2, buy growth ETFs

Quad two environment now, slowing inflation and growth. 

In that scenario id buy healthcare, growth, software, and large cap growth.

XLF, XLE, XOP, XLV, ect IBB IGV, or things already trending in those ETFs.

This post is coming from Clear Lake, Iowa. 

Normally im in Alamogordo, NM.

Anyhow its drizzle here in Iowa and starting to cool down.

The wars continue in Europe and the Middle East. Speaking of Middle East, buy UAE..  I'm shorting, Germany, Suiza and India ect against it.

Anyhow jobs in the Midwest are less now, so the economy is slowing. 

The world is changing fast. I keep thinking about the Fourth Turning and how we are living through it.

I read about it as a kid and now its happening, I remember Doug Casey being a fan but Gary North not so much.

Now we are living through wars, record corruption around the world and technology changing faster than people can adjust.

If you can make it through it, I believe you will see mass wealth creation and prosperity for all, but the volatility will kill many. Like the loniness and addictive nature of legal drugs, gambling and lack of meaning in life.

We are seeing the first clues of where this is going with more private colleges closing. With people not even studying anymore. 

Anyhow its creating many opportunities to enjoy yourself and prosper if you stay offline.

Thanks for reading. 

Deflation maybe the next scare.

Deflation maybe the next scare coming. 

I expect the next few inflation prints coming will show inflation spiking up because of the wars in Russia and Iran. 

Six months from now it woulnt surprise me if long interest rates were down.

I believe the economy is slowing with high petro prices and high diesel prices and the commodity prices associated with them. Corn prices and wheat prices maybe going up and with diesel prices high, transport costs associated with them will keep grocery prices elevated. 

Still the economy is slowing and I expect interest rates over time will come down and the Fed may rates a few times but in six months may lower them faster than expected. 

I wouldn't buy bonds now but when they start trending bonds and their proxies will start to rally just not today, and six months from now is a long time.

Euro prices.

I expect the euro to eventually melt down against the dollar, same with the Yen.

Gold will probably go up even with Deflation but only time will tell.

I believe world Deflation will be met with money printing in most places in the world and because of that woulnt be surprised to see gold go up just not a lot inless you live in Japan, Europe orthe UK.

So even with many problems in the US the USD could remain elevated despite establishment people wanting it lower.

Either way I expect high asset prices over time in most of the world.

If you have access to low cost debt or leverage use it to attain assets and just wait and work your business or job and enjoy life.

Thanks for reading. 

Another letter from E.B. Tucker

I like E.B. Tucker.  He has a good letter. The letter I got before the latest was about waiting in lines.

We wait in lines nowdays to get many things but especially if you want to buy luxury watches. 

I dont want to buy a watch but know many people who do and now some watch makers make you buy the less valuable watches then you can buy the ones you want.

E.B. pointed out much of what we buy is fashionable by many people but its not what we want. We buy whats considered beautiful or fashionable by other people so dont really buy what we enjoy or want.

I think hes right, we dont really enjoy what wealth we have and spend time and money on things and experiences we dont really enjoy. 

I see people dont really enjoy the prosperity they have now. Thats the case in North America at least.

Its probably why I enjoy S.E. Asia and Latin America. 

Things dont cost much their and you can spend time in nature and really enjoy yourself. 

Its like we have built guided cages for ourselves and we dont really enjoy it much.

We seem to be going towards a different economy and culture. In twenty years it will be completely different. 

Anyhow next week is a new week for trading and investment and so far this last week and weekend, it seems the US is losing its war in the East, I mean both of them.

It will be interesting to see if the US Dollar holds its value, im curious if gold closes above its trend line. 

I see big changes in culture everywhere, Europe North America, and Asia, not sure what to make of it.

Even Doug Casey and Matt Smith are concerned with some kind of deflation and then a reflation, the times are changing. 

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

Another down day in markets.

Another down day in markets. 

The markets were mostly down today. Oil was up and some of my oil and gas shares were up.

I had a few shorts thar I closed out and added a few more shorts before the close, mostly industrials. CAT ,I shorted that too.

I closed out my platinum ETF too, made over 1% on it.

Today I sold a lot of my small caps because I think they will continue to sell off.

I think software shares will continue to rally a long with commodity stuff. Gas, Weit ect. Sprott has nuclear stuff, I cant remember the the ticker, but its yellow cake. 

I dont think the war with Russia or Iran willstop anytime soon.

The Chinese continue to but oil from the Middle East, and oil is now priced in the 90s.

So I continue to think markets will sell off and when the inflation numbers come out and inflation ticks higher I expect bonds to sell off. So expect higher interest rates.

I still dont think the Fed will raise rates but if they do, soon after they may lower them faster than people think.

Either way expect higher volatility. 

The US Doller didnt really rally much, so I expect the USD to go lower over time.

The Canadian Dollar keeps rallying against the USD despite trade sanctions and trade frictions.

The Mexican Peso and Colombian Peso are up against the US Dollar too.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading  

Holiday, markets closed.(US)

Well its Monday and the markets are closed at least in the US. Futures were open last night.

The US Dollar is weak in FX trading. I believe oil was up last night. I believe the war with Iran is on in ernest same in Russia. 

I believe the Presidents son and other administration men were in russia last night, now I believe they are in Ukraine. 

I believe both wars are not going to end. Russia appears to be winning in Ukraine, although the price for winning is high.

Iran I believe is winning too, but thats bad for Europe and the Middle East. 

Good for North America. 

Im not sure but it could be why the US dollar is headed lower at least until a crisis happens. 

Gold I think will slowly go higher, not sure about silver but woulnt be surprised if it goes higher too, along with copper and other commodities. 

I bought WEAT last week. And Natural Gas.

Even if the dollar goes higher or lower I see real assets going higher at least until there's a crisis. 

Im starting to think the Fed and Treasury wants a weak dollar, although more and more people are seeing that.

Then there is China and the AI race.

Another reason to own commodities, Gold and software shares. Software maybe considered an inflation hedge by many market participants. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

The world is changing fast.(Decentralizing)

I haven't posted in awhile. 

The markets were down Friday, gold too. Anyway I still think we will see lower rates, and a weaker USD.

The President (Trump) keeps tweeting he wants lower interest rates and a weaker dollar come what may.

Anyhow I still think we are in a reflation environment. And a reflation of the share markets. Including commoditys and gold.

The nation continues to decentralize. 

The US nation continues to decentralize among the haves and have nots, the infamous K shaped economy. 

Its similar in Europe too.

I see videos all the time of rising homelessness in Germany, Canada and the US.

The policy makers have chosen to destroy the middle classes and working classes.

So I continue to think the economy is decentralizing. I see similiar in Russia too.

As wars and inflation heat up I believe we will continue to see a loss of faith in the American Dream.

I think you will see more men and women dropping out of the workforce and working will decline. 

So inflation and tax will go up to pay for this loss of faith. 

The good news is all this new technology will create new ways of creating wealth and prosperity that governments will be hard pressed to tax or regulate.

So employers will have to offer higher wages to get employees or let in more immigrants. 

Im sure they will do both, including using robots and AI to lower employment costs.

All this could lead to lower prices, giving the government opportunities to inflate their currencies more.

Its why Gold, Bitcoin, ETH may go up alot as well as other assets.

Living in smaller cities and countries maybe more attractive going forward. 

I see more North Americans leaving for other countries.

Anyways thanks for reading.