Another letter from E.B. Tucker

I like E.B. Tucker.  He has a good letter. The letter I got before the latest was about waiting in lines.

We wait in lines nowdays to get many things but especially if you want to buy luxury watches. 

I dont want to buy a watch but know many people who do and now some watch makers make you buy the less valuable watches then you can buy the ones you want.

E.B. pointed out much of what we buy is fashionable by many people but its not what we want. We buy whats considered beautiful or fashionable by other people so dont really buy what we enjoy or want.

I think hes right, we dont really enjoy what wealth we have and spend time and money on things and experiences we dont really enjoy. 

I see people dont really enjoy the prosperity they have now. Thats the case in North America at least.

Its probably why I enjoy S.E. Asia and Latin America. 

Things dont cost much their and you can spend time in nature and really enjoy yourself. 

Its like we have built guided cages for ourselves and we dont really enjoy it much.

We seem to be going towards a different economy and culture. In twenty years it will be completely different. 

Anyhow next week is a new week for trading and investment and so far this last week and weekend, it seems the US is losing its war in the East, I mean both of them.

It will be interesting to see if the US Dollar holds its value, im curious if gold closes above its trend line. 

I see big changes in culture everywhere, Europe North America, and Asia, not sure what to make of it.

Even Doug Casey and Matt Smith are concerned with some kind of deflation and then a reflation, the times are changing. 

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

Another down day in markets.

Another down day in markets. 

The markets were mostly down today. Oil was up and some of my oil and gas shares were up.

I had a few shorts thar I closed out and added a few more shorts before the close, mostly industrials. CAT ,I shorted that too.

I closed out my platinum ETF too, made over 1% on it.

Today I sold a lot of my small caps because I think they will continue to sell off.

I think software shares will continue to rally a long with commodity stuff. Gas, Weit ect. Sprott has nuclear stuff, I cant remember the the ticker, but its yellow cake. 

I dont think the war with Russia or Iran willstop anytime soon.

The Chinese continue to but oil from the Middle East, and oil is now priced in the 90s.

So I continue to think markets will sell off and when the inflation numbers come out and inflation ticks higher I expect bonds to sell off. So expect higher interest rates.

I still dont think the Fed will raise rates but if they do, soon after they may lower them faster than people think.

Either way expect higher volatility. 

The US Doller didnt really rally much, so I expect the USD to go lower over time.

The Canadian Dollar keeps rallying against the USD despite trade sanctions and trade frictions.

The Mexican Peso and Colombian Peso are up against the US Dollar too.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading  

Holiday, markets closed.(US)

Well its Monday and the markets are closed at least in the US. Futures were open last night.

The US Dollar is weak in FX trading. I believe oil was up last night. I believe the war with Iran is on in ernest same in Russia. 

I believe the Presidents son and other administration men were in russia last night, now I believe they are in Ukraine. 

I believe both wars are not going to end. Russia appears to be winning in Ukraine, although the price for winning is high.

Iran I believe is winning too, but thats bad for Europe and the Middle East. 

Good for North America. 

Im not sure but it could be why the US dollar is headed lower at least until a crisis happens. 

Gold I think will slowly go higher, not sure about silver but woulnt be surprised if it goes higher too, along with copper and other commodities. 

I bought WEAT last week. And Natural Gas.

Even if the dollar goes higher or lower I see real assets going higher at least until there's a crisis. 

Im starting to think the Fed and Treasury wants a weak dollar, although more and more people are seeing that.

Then there is China and the AI race.

Another reason to own commodities, Gold and software shares. Software maybe considered an inflation hedge by many market participants. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

The world is changing fast.(Decentralizing)

I haven't posted in awhile. 

The markets were down Friday, gold too. Anyway I still think we will see lower rates, and a weaker USD.

The President (Trump) keeps tweeting he wants lower interest rates and a weaker dollar come what may.

Anyhow I still think we are in a reflation environment. And a reflation of the share markets. Including commoditys and gold.

The nation continues to decentralize. 

The US nation continues to decentralize among the haves and have nots, the infamous K shaped economy. 

Its similar in Europe too.

I see videos all the time of rising homelessness in Germany, Canada and the US.

The policy makers have chosen to destroy the middle classes and working classes.

So I continue to think the economy is decentralizing. I see similiar in Russia too.

As wars and inflation heat up I believe we will continue to see a loss of faith in the American Dream.

I think you will see more men and women dropping out of the workforce and working will decline. 

So inflation and tax will go up to pay for this loss of faith. 

The good news is all this new technology will create new ways of creating wealth and prosperity that governments will be hard pressed to tax or regulate.

So employers will have to offer higher wages to get employees or let in more immigrants. 

Im sure they will do both, including using robots and AI to lower employment costs.

All this could lead to lower prices, giving the government opportunities to inflate their currencies more.

Its why Gold, Bitcoin, ETH may go up alot as well as other assets.

Living in smaller cities and countries maybe more attractive going forward. 

I see more North Americans leaving for other countries.

Anyways thanks for reading. 

Shares, Gold, Silver,Fx, Update

Shares on Friday, I think were mostly down, at least the ones I own.

Silver was down more than 4% and gold 3%,  so I bought more.

The USD was up so I closed out some dollar shorts but not all.

I still think the stock market continues to inflate upwards and the same with commoditys. 

I m not sure about the dollar but would guess it can weaken if they dont raise interest rates, which is what im betting, at least for now.

I always expect a USD Dollar spike if the wars continue and theres a recession but im still not convinced of a recession yet, or a deflation scare, but I do think its possible. 

In that circumstance, id want gold and USD.

Its Sunday morning here in Alamogordo, NM. A beautiful day here for walking. 

I feel pretty good after my surgery and can twist my neck and body to see a lot better. I notice I can get out of bed faster and feel better in the morning when I get up.

Anyhow I look forward to the open tonight to see how gold and the dollar trades. Im curious if Asian markets rally or sell off.

I also look forward to working again if I can and or going to Asia or maybe Saipan, but id need some savings from a job to get a start.

Thanks for reading. 

Day 4 sense my surgery. Kidney stones removal.

This Tuesday, I had 2 kidney stones removed with surgery, laser removal. 

Anyhow today is Saturday and I can Pee now fairly normal now. I can walk without much pain, but the big difference is I have little to no anxiety. 

I believe my blood pressure has gone down so I dont get much anxiety anymore, which kept me from getting a job.

When I was up in Alaska, I slipped on a fish fell down and was in the hospital. They workmans comp paid the initial bill but the follow up bill was over 10k which they didnt pay.

The good news was the hospital forgave the bill. Which surprised me, but I was happy they did. This happened in Seward, Alaska. 

I mention all this because it happened when I had kidney stones which causes me anxiety and pain in my body, which is why I slipped on the fish.

Anyway I feel good today getting my life back after these last two years.

My headaches are gone or mostly gone, which I believe was from my elevated blood pressure, which was from the kidney stones, which I didnt realize. 

The sad part is now I lost my job in Iowa, McKesson, which paid well. I then went to Alaska and they didnt call me back ,I believe because of the workmans comp issue. 

Anyhow I feel better now with lower blood pressure and getting my life back.

Now I just want a job and to save some money and maybe move to Saipan or Asia but right now ill move to Iowa and try to get a job or some work in Alaska. 

Thank s for reading. 

Day three, sense my surgery (Kidney Stones)

This Tuesday, I had my kidney stones removed surgically. I believe they used a laser. 

When you go to the hospital, they check your blood and do a few more tests to make sure your fine.

Then they put an IV in you and give you antibiotics then when its your turn to go into sugery they knock you out with drugs, then put a camera inside your body to see your stones, then zap them with a laser.

As you can amagine it causes your insides to bleed.

Anyhow I dont remember anything, I woke up in slight pain and had to pee out the blood and stones inside me which hurt.

It was unpleasant to see all the blood coming out, and it hurt.

After, I was released i still hurt the rest of the day. I went in before 7,30 am and was finished by 11,30am I think. Before 1pm I was released and home resting. 

That day it hurt to pee and was unpleasant. The next day felt better and by Friday I am still peeing blood but the pain is a lot less.

Over the last few days, my headaches that I have had for months has lessened. 

I believe my blood pressure has come down quite a bit too. When I walk now I can walk with little pain. I have or can twist my body with little pain. Its like there is less swelling in my whole body.

My stones that were inside of me were the sieze of dimes and I could feel them in my gut but now the pain is gone as well as headaches and I believe my blood pressure is lower so am happy about that.

If you every have kidney stones laser Operation it was pretty stress free, I can remember nothing when it happened and now three days latter feel I can get my life back.

I have much less anxiety like I had before, Im hoping I can get a job again and continue my life.

Thanks for reading. 

JC from Escape to Thailand

JC from Escape to Thailand, just sent me his latest update. I haven't watched it yet, but see one of his talking points is how SOME tourists may have to prove they have enough cash to support there stay in Thailand. 

My understanding is they ask to see your cash and ATM cards, credit cards ect. Such as local accounts including how much is in them ect.

Its to the point Thailand and many countries dont want as many foreigners visiting and living in them as before. 

I believe this is a result of covid and the rising inflation and resentment of foreigners being jerks to locals and driving up prices for locals.

In Thailand and many countries there are a lot of expats from Russia escaping war, or expats living cheap and starting businesses that compete with locals. 

The Philippines hasnt cracked down as much but it wouldn't surprise me if they do. 

The cost of living and regulations and tax are driving many citizens out of there countries and now inflation and tax are rising quite a bit.

Canada is in the news with there war on the US. Thats another issue, many are starting to realize there is a serious trade war going on and they will have to take sides and cant stay neutral.

Im not sure where this is all going but its related to The Fourth Turning, Neil Howe. 

Anyway things are changing fast, I hope you have a plan B.

Thanks for reading. 

Weekend review (Share prices)

This week share prices did ok. There were quite a few down days and so I had quite a few shorts that worked out pretty well.

The last few weeks I had bought a small gold and silver position thats up more than 15% so thats been nice.

I closed out quite a few commodity position, which in hindsight I should have kept open. 

As many trend following people say, we dont let out winners run, that seems to be true.

I owned some gold shares with nice profit, Newmont Mining,  being one, it used to be at fify sixty bucks a share now quite a bit over one hundred, but on of my ETFs still owns it, ticker MFUT.

One of my biggest positions.

In hindsight I should have bought more shares years ago.

Anyway as I live longer I learn these lessons. 

The share markets seem to be expanding, so most of my share positions are up, Reits,  Healthcare, Equal weight stuff, Small cap dividends, Large cap dividends, Overseas dividends,  ect.

I forgot, my Tech shares, software stuff is up, there are many ETFs for this and by Friday many were up 4% some more.

So despite the start of the week I did ok, but realize I could risk manage better, I mean have larger position sieze in some stuff and smaller in more volatility stuff.

I look forward to next week and continue to think the USD will weaken by how much I dont know. 

I still think there maybe a deflation, disinflation scare where the USD will rally so am ready to turn on a dime. Id rather use leverage on currency when or if the USD rallies on a deflation scare, but longer term accept the political clasd seems to want a weak dollar and reshoring of production, but so does the UK and Europe. 

We live in interesting times as the Chinese say.

I still think its up in the air about the Chinese taking over parts of the US Empire.

Im not sure thats what they want. I still think the US can maintain there Empire, although its not what I want.

I look at whats left of the French and UK Empire and see even they have some kind of Empire, but China and Russia are making inroads there, but still havent got the influence many claim, but im not boots on the ground and know.

I do think China has made inroads in North America and Europe, and ad an North American,  I dont like it.

I do admire the Chinese economy, the technology build out they have achieved. I admire the lifting out of poverty of much of there country. They have electrified there country fast and well much like the US in the past, so admire and admit they are fast learners. I hope the US can compete. 

So far im not inspired. At least we are doing better than the Europeans. 

Speaking of Asia, its doing well and seems to be overtaking much of Europe and the UK and soon North America.  

So long term can see Asia aligning with China.

Only time will tell.

Thanks for reading. 

The inflation forcast is inching up.

The rate of inflation is forecast to go up.

What that will do for the Fed decision to lower or raise rates im not sure.

As I have said in the past I think rates will go down. And over time inflation will go up.

Im not sure if the USD will continue to weaken but policy makers seem to want a re shoring of manufacturing in North America and it will require a weak dollar.

I think we could get it but there could be a Dollar spike with a deflation scare but will be dealt with printing money and rising inflation. 

Anyhow markets opened weak to down. I covered a few shorts and bought a few shares in Teck and Software ETFs.

So far oil ETFs haven't corrected much and so havent bought any.

Share markets in Southern Europe look interesting. 

I think they will rise over time.

Not much else to say.

Buy gold with profits and live in a small city community as the world economy continues to decentralize. 

The future will be bright for some people.

Thanks for reading. 

Besent(Bessie)Falling USD, and rising Gold prices.

Treasury Secretary Bessant, AKA Bessie, made a tweat or announcement about Yield Curve Control today I think and the price of Gold was up over 21/2% AAAU a ticker for Gold bullion was up as much as 3% or more. 

The USD or Dollar got clobbered today. So people who were shorting the Dollar made money today.

Mike Green formally at Simplify sent out an email suggesting that long yield bonds would rally under this new policy and the way "flows" work it would re allocate capital to bonds and overtime lower long term bond yields and create an environment for rising asset prices which I think will happen. 

He also suggested that morgage rates would come down and create an environmente for home sales.

I think he suggested this will create a rising prosperity for North Americans overtime but short term lead to lower inflation but longer term higher inflation so you will need to manage risk well.

I tend to agree with his judgment short term it fixes issues but over the long term it may lead to inflation, I dont know. Maybe the US Government will slash deficit spending and we can all hold hans and sing koombayah and retite wealthy. 

Anyway, it all lead to a broadening rising share market and rising gold prices, and a much lower dollar, at least for now.

I hope this all leads to a reshoring of offshore production to North America and Mexico. 

I believe thats what they the policy makers wish for.

I hope this boosts my small cap portfolio and I think it will.

If you have an FX account with leverage and you were positioned the right way you made a lot of money today.

.uch of my small caps were up 5% or more even the shares in the UK 

Its a beautiful day here in Alamogordo. 

I like walking in the desert near the market close of the day, which here is after 2pm.

Today I left a little early to get out before its to hot.

Hearing the nature in the desert is nice here. Seeing the mountains are nice too.

The Airforce Base is near here so I can always here the planes flying over head and reminds me we are still at war with Iran, and by proxie Russia and China. 

Anyhow thats it for now, thanks for reading. 

Thoughts of the day, Alamogordo, NM

Its the end of the day for trading and investing and share markets were down in the US even gold and I believe the USD rallied 

Anyway Im at the library in Alamogordo, NM and enjoying the Aircon as they say in the Philippines. 

Im just thinking about all the videos I have been watching about the decline of the West, mostly North America the UK and Europe and thinking about that.

It seems to me with AI and Nano technology the economy is readjusting to the new economy and there will be more unemployment in traditional employment and market participants are starting to realize that and we are seeing gold react to that and share markets too.

As always I think governments will continue to reinflate and borrow and spend intell that cant.

I continue to think we will see more self employment and a continuing loss of knowledge in the old economy which could be bad.

I keep seeing people complain about crime and the lack of law enforcement doing anything about it, same with legal and illegal migration. 

I think the illegal migration from the third world will continue. With social media advertising the benefits of welfare and crime not being enforced people will rush in.

It seems western people arent (full) as Asians like to say.

I believe at some point North America will reassert itself and enforce law, but if they dont the western way of life is over.

I cant predict what voters/citizens will do bit still think there is hope, if im wrong owning gold coins will come in handy but wont really save the day but will buy you time.

I still believe that it may become harder to travel and legally migrate for western people.

I still think we will have a trade war with our allies and enemies. 

I still think in the short term inflation can stay high.

I still think the world in ten years will be unrecognizable. 

I prefer to be optimistic because im North American so will continue to invest and build assets if im able too. I hope Europeans can to.

Anyhow thats my thought of the day.

Share markets continue to rally despite world problems

Share markets continue to rally and some are at all time highs or close to it.

The Korean share market has stopped going down and maybe back in a rally.

Japan was down 2% last night. 

So despite Trump tweets the world hasnt plunged into a recession yet.

I continue to see negative articles in AI and job losses related to these job losses. We haven't seen a plunge in share markets yet, but may see it in the future.

I think we have a reflation going on longer term but may see inflation come down short term but only time will tell.

If we have interest rates around the world stay higher for longer and if the Fed holds rates steady or cuts them, that could lead to a much weaker dollar. Most people dont seem to have that on their radar.

I would expect stronger currencies against the US Dollar and higher gold prices. 

Im not sure we will see lower share prices but think it maybe possible in the future. 

Right now im guessing commodity prices will remain high including agriculture prices and anything related to oil and gas.

Like refined products. 

We are already seeing a backlash to foreign tourists in Thailand and a few other places as prices rise for basic stuff and resentment against foreigners rise, like ive seen in Thailand. 

It woulnt surprise me to see less tourism in many countries as prices remain a little high and as WW3 appears to be heating up.

Related to this many people will be limited to what countries welcome them in for tourism and retirement visas ect.

I saw a video last night that suggests border towns in Thailand may ask you to prove you have enough money to pay for your stay.

It was like this in the eighties, which most young people dont know. Its why people lost their travelers checks and got new ones to prove to border guards they could afford their stay.

Does anyone even remember travelers checks?

Anyhow this rising inflation and higher interest rates reminds me of the eighties and ninties.

The economy will have to readjust to all these tariffs and new and rising taxes.

We may start to see a new underground economy despite most people lack of physical cash, im guessing US Dollar coins the ones that maybe private will become the new cash.

Traditional employment maybe cresting now and new cottage industry maybe rising, especially with Nano technology and AI technology. 

We live in interesting times as the Chinese say.

Thanks for reading.