It seems the economy is slowing down.(Quad 4)

Seward, Alaska 

Well its a cool day here in Clear Lake, Iowa. 

Today is Friday, markets are down quite a bit so many of my short sells are profitable. So I covered a lot of shorts this morning. 

I finally started a long in bonds, but expect to get some pull backs to add to it.

It seems like the economy is slowing down. The Tech arena is selling off today as is Private Equity, and other things, including silver, gold,and other commodities. 

I noticed some small caps have rallied quite a bit, but I'm still short the Russel Index.

Anyhow thats it for markets. 

The culture is changing. The Fourth Turning.

I notice more men and women are dropping out of society. I see it more with men, but have noticed this is happening with women too.

You can see it on YouTube, there is a channel with a women in AZ I think who bought raw land and is building a house in the desert and finding online ways to earn income for herself and daughter. 

There are more examples of this. People are dropping out and living on reduced income and living frugally and seem to enjoy it.

Many are starting Websites and YouTube channels and monetizing it and earning enough without working a day job in a brick and mortor business. 

It seems to be preferred to earning more, buying a house and getting medical benefits. 

You see this with channels on living overseas too. I watch the ones where people are saying they live on 300 to 500USD a month in S.E. Asia. 

Many of these channels get hate comments and resentment because people are choosing to leave the system and living cheaply in Philippines or places like Cambodia or Thailand. 

Theres even disbelief you can rent for 80 to 120 or even less if you want to in those places, and spen a few hundred on food utilities and immigration fees.

Its like the slaves have left the plantation and discovered they can live free and not be dependent on government or the slave owner.

At least thats my opinion. The shadows on the cave walls come to mind.(Plato)

Anyway I enjoy those YouTube channels and seeing people enjoying there lives overseas and the ones who stay in the States.

Bicycle life.

There a channel I enjoy watching, where a gentleman in his 60s I believe lives on a bike, has no apartment, camps at night, wild camping or camps in sheds he either owns or friends of his.

He works online for income and I think does odd jobs to pay his expenses in life and is planning to take his life on the road show, South America, and El Salvador, I think.

He can live the same life with less hassle from fellow Americans and law enforcement. 

He gets resentment from people because he lives well, is not homeless but doesn't pay rent and lives we..but again thats my opinion. 

One more thing. Dividends and Covered Call ETFs.

There is another gentleman who lives in Asia mainly but visits other regions too.

He has a YouTube site, earns income from it but spends about 1,500 to sometimes 2,000 USD a month traveling around Asia.

He used to be an contractor offshore, made good money, got the 100k earned income credit, so payed little or no income tax, saved more than 300K and invested it in covered call ETFs and other dividents ETFs like BDCs and growing dividend income funds.

He earns enough income from that, so he can spend what he needs and reinvest whats left and grow his capital base.

I like his videos too. He seems to enjoy the slow paces like in Thailand ect. He sees his family and kids to, usually in Indonesia, if I remember right.

These are all alternatives to the usual life, and none as far as I know has gotten retirement income from Social Security or private pensions.

One last comment. 

Theres another gentleman who lives in Mexico,  The broke millionaire, hes Canadian I think.

He retired from the rat race of North America and burned down his business and I think rebuilt his life from nothing and now lives on a piece of raw land he and his friends bought, built a house and goes surfing everyday and makes YouTube videos about it.

He has a consulting service for income I believe, make a grand a month or less and lives pretty well from what I see.

Anyway this is how culture is changing and is probably an indication of how the loss of confidence is turning many men and women away from our traditional lifestyle and seems to indicate a lack of trust in the establishment and is another clue of The Fourth Turning. 

Thanks for reading. 

Inflation numbers up.

Inflation numbers up today. People now expect the Fed may raise interest rates at there next meeting. I think we may have one more Inflation report thats unexpectedly high then we will see expectations for lower rates and a slower economy.

Right now we are in a quad 2 environment (@hedgeeye)

Soon maybe sooner than I realize it will be quad 4 and a much slower economy and a bond market rally which many dont expect. 

As of now you can short bonds and bond proxies and make money. Soon maybe in the next few months bonds will rally. 

We live in interesting times as the Chinese like to say.

Today you could have shorted various things and covered for a nice profit. 

Thanks for reading.

Another down day in share prices, EU, Asia, North America.

( Clear Lake, Iowa)

Another quad 2 day today. @Hedgeeye

Markets were down, all over the world,  my shorts did well, covered some and opened a few new ones in Industrials and retail, and closed some. XLI is one I closed some out.

Software shares were down some were up and generally speaking they are up quite a lot.

Same with healthcare, Japan appears to be trending. 

Anyway, I was down more thanI wanted but overtime going up.

Cant add much. It appears inflation overtime will come down but not today.

The economy maybe slowing, and the wars drag on.

I think there is to much complacency in markets right now and we will soon have an deflation scare, or disinflation scare in a few months and then it maybe time to buy bonds and bond proxies. 

Anyhow, im in Iowa and will enjoy the sunset here.

Thanks for reading. 

P.S. i still miss Alaska!

Quad2, buy growth ETFs

Quad two environment now, slowing inflation and growth. 

In that scenario id buy healthcare, growth, software, and large cap growth.

XLF, XLE, XOP, XLV, ect IBB IGV, or things already trending in those ETFs.

This post is coming from Clear Lake, Iowa. 

Normally im in Alamogordo, NM.

Anyhow its drizzle here in Iowa and starting to cool down.

The wars continue in Europe and the Middle East. Speaking of Middle East, buy UAE..  I'm shorting, Germany, Suiza and India ect against it.

Anyhow jobs in the Midwest are less now, so the economy is slowing. 

The world is changing fast. I keep thinking about the Fourth Turning and how we are living through it.

I read about it as a kid and now its happening, I remember Doug Casey being a fan but Gary North not so much.

Now we are living through wars, record corruption around the world and technology changing faster than people can adjust.

If you can make it through it, I believe you will see mass wealth creation and prosperity for all, but the volatility will kill many. Like the loniness and addictive nature of legal drugs, gambling and lack of meaning in life.

We are seeing the first clues of where this is going with more private colleges closing. With people not even studying anymore. 

Anyhow its creating many opportunities to enjoy yourself and prosper if you stay offline.

Thanks for reading. 

Deflation maybe the next scare.

Deflation maybe the next scare coming. 

I expect the next few inflation prints coming will show inflation spiking up because of the wars in Russia and Iran. 

Six months from now it woulnt surprise me if long interest rates were down.

I believe the economy is slowing with high petro prices and high diesel prices and the commodity prices associated with them. Corn prices and wheat prices maybe going up and with diesel prices high, transport costs associated with them will keep grocery prices elevated. 

Still the economy is slowing and I expect interest rates over time will come down and the Fed may rates a few times but in six months may lower them faster than expected. 

I wouldn't buy bonds now but when they start trending bonds and their proxies will start to rally just not today, and six months from now is a long time.

Euro prices.

I expect the euro to eventually melt down against the dollar, same with the Yen.

Gold will probably go up even with Deflation but only time will tell.

I believe world Deflation will be met with money printing in most places in the world and because of that woulnt be surprised to see gold go up just not a lot inless you live in Japan, Europe orthe UK.

So even with many problems in the US the USD could remain elevated despite establishment people wanting it lower.

Either way I expect high asset prices over time in most of the world.

If you have access to low cost debt or leverage use it to attain assets and just wait and work your business or job and enjoy life.

Thanks for reading. 

Another letter from E.B. Tucker

I like E.B. Tucker.  He has a good letter. The letter I got before the latest was about waiting in lines.

We wait in lines nowdays to get many things but especially if you want to buy luxury watches. 

I dont want to buy a watch but know many people who do and now some watch makers make you buy the less valuable watches then you can buy the ones you want.

E.B. pointed out much of what we buy is fashionable by many people but its not what we want. We buy whats considered beautiful or fashionable by other people so dont really buy what we enjoy or want.

I think hes right, we dont really enjoy what wealth we have and spend time and money on things and experiences we dont really enjoy. 

I see people dont really enjoy the prosperity they have now. Thats the case in North America at least.

Its probably why I enjoy S.E. Asia and Latin America. 

Things dont cost much their and you can spend time in nature and really enjoy yourself. 

Its like we have built guided cages for ourselves and we dont really enjoy it much.

We seem to be going towards a different economy and culture. In twenty years it will be completely different. 

Anyhow next week is a new week for trading and investment and so far this last week and weekend, it seems the US is losing its war in the East, I mean both of them.

It will be interesting to see if the US Dollar holds its value, im curious if gold closes above its trend line. 

I see big changes in culture everywhere, Europe North America, and Asia, not sure what to make of it.

Even Doug Casey and Matt Smith are concerned with some kind of deflation and then a reflation, the times are changing. 

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

Another down day in markets.

Another down day in markets. 

The markets were mostly down today. Oil was up and some of my oil and gas shares were up.

I had a few shorts thar I closed out and added a few more shorts before the close, mostly industrials. CAT ,I shorted that too.

I closed out my platinum ETF too, made over 1% on it.

Today I sold a lot of my small caps because I think they will continue to sell off.

I think software shares will continue to rally a long with commodity stuff. Gas, Weit ect. Sprott has nuclear stuff, I cant remember the the ticker, but its yellow cake. 

I dont think the war with Russia or Iran willstop anytime soon.

The Chinese continue to but oil from the Middle East, and oil is now priced in the 90s.

So I continue to think markets will sell off and when the inflation numbers come out and inflation ticks higher I expect bonds to sell off. So expect higher interest rates.

I still dont think the Fed will raise rates but if they do, soon after they may lower them faster than people think.

Either way expect higher volatility. 

The US Doller didnt really rally much, so I expect the USD to go lower over time.

The Canadian Dollar keeps rallying against the USD despite trade sanctions and trade frictions.

The Mexican Peso and Colombian Peso are up against the US Dollar too.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading  

Holiday, markets closed.(US)

Well its Monday and the markets are closed at least in the US. Futures were open last night.

The US Dollar is weak in FX trading. I believe oil was up last night. I believe the war with Iran is on in ernest same in Russia. 

I believe the Presidents son and other administration men were in russia last night, now I believe they are in Ukraine. 

I believe both wars are not going to end. Russia appears to be winning in Ukraine, although the price for winning is high.

Iran I believe is winning too, but thats bad for Europe and the Middle East. 

Good for North America. 

Im not sure but it could be why the US dollar is headed lower at least until a crisis happens. 

Gold I think will slowly go higher, not sure about silver but woulnt be surprised if it goes higher too, along with copper and other commodities. 

I bought WEAT last week. And Natural Gas.

Even if the dollar goes higher or lower I see real assets going higher at least until there's a crisis. 

Im starting to think the Fed and Treasury wants a weak dollar, although more and more people are seeing that.

Then there is China and the AI race.

Another reason to own commodities, Gold and software shares. Software maybe considered an inflation hedge by many market participants. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

The world is changing fast.(Decentralizing)

I haven't posted in awhile. 

The markets were down Friday, gold too. Anyway I still think we will see lower rates, and a weaker USD.

The President (Trump) keeps tweeting he wants lower interest rates and a weaker dollar come what may.

Anyhow I still think we are in a reflation environment. And a reflation of the share markets. Including commoditys and gold.

The nation continues to decentralize. 

The US nation continues to decentralize among the haves and have nots, the infamous K shaped economy. 

Its similar in Europe too.

I see videos all the time of rising homelessness in Germany, Canada and the US.

The policy makers have chosen to destroy the middle classes and working classes.

So I continue to think the economy is decentralizing. I see similiar in Russia too.

As wars and inflation heat up I believe we will continue to see a loss of faith in the American Dream.

I think you will see more men and women dropping out of the workforce and working will decline. 

So inflation and tax will go up to pay for this loss of faith. 

The good news is all this new technology will create new ways of creating wealth and prosperity that governments will be hard pressed to tax or regulate.

So employers will have to offer higher wages to get employees or let in more immigrants. 

Im sure they will do both, including using robots and AI to lower employment costs.

All this could lead to lower prices, giving the government opportunities to inflate their currencies more.

Its why Gold, Bitcoin, ETH may go up alot as well as other assets.

Living in smaller cities and countries maybe more attractive going forward. 

I see more North Americans leaving for other countries.

Anyways thanks for reading. 

Shares, Gold, Silver,Fx, Update

Shares on Friday, I think were mostly down, at least the ones I own.

Silver was down more than 4% and gold 3%,  so I bought more.

The USD was up so I closed out some dollar shorts but not all.

I still think the stock market continues to inflate upwards and the same with commoditys. 

I m not sure about the dollar but would guess it can weaken if they dont raise interest rates, which is what im betting, at least for now.

I always expect a USD Dollar spike if the wars continue and theres a recession but im still not convinced of a recession yet, or a deflation scare, but I do think its possible. 

In that circumstance, id want gold and USD.

Its Sunday morning here in Alamogordo, NM. A beautiful day here for walking. 

I feel pretty good after my surgery and can twist my neck and body to see a lot better. I notice I can get out of bed faster and feel better in the morning when I get up.

Anyhow I look forward to the open tonight to see how gold and the dollar trades. Im curious if Asian markets rally or sell off.

I also look forward to working again if I can and or going to Asia or maybe Saipan, but id need some savings from a job to get a start.

Thanks for reading. 

Day 4 sense my surgery. Kidney stones removal.

This Tuesday, I had 2 kidney stones removed with surgery, laser removal. 

Anyhow today is Saturday and I can Pee now fairly normal now. I can walk without much pain, but the big difference is I have little to no anxiety. 

I believe my blood pressure has gone down so I dont get much anxiety anymore, which kept me from getting a job.

When I was up in Alaska, I slipped on a fish fell down and was in the hospital. They workmans comp paid the initial bill but the follow up bill was over 10k which they didnt pay.

The good news was the hospital forgave the bill. Which surprised me, but I was happy they did. This happened in Seward, Alaska. 

I mention all this because it happened when I had kidney stones which causes me anxiety and pain in my body, which is why I slipped on the fish.

Anyway I feel good today getting my life back after these last two years.

My headaches are gone or mostly gone, which I believe was from my elevated blood pressure, which was from the kidney stones, which I didnt realize. 

The sad part is now I lost my job in Iowa, McKesson, which paid well. I then went to Alaska and they didnt call me back ,I believe because of the workmans comp issue. 

Anyhow I feel better now with lower blood pressure and getting my life back.

Now I just want a job and to save some money and maybe move to Saipan or Asia but right now ill move to Iowa and try to get a job or some work in Alaska. 

Thank s for reading. 

Day three, sense my surgery (Kidney Stones)

This Tuesday, I had my kidney stones removed surgically. I believe they used a laser. 

When you go to the hospital, they check your blood and do a few more tests to make sure your fine.

Then they put an IV in you and give you antibiotics then when its your turn to go into sugery they knock you out with drugs, then put a camera inside your body to see your stones, then zap them with a laser.

As you can amagine it causes your insides to bleed.

Anyhow I dont remember anything, I woke up in slight pain and had to pee out the blood and stones inside me which hurt.

It was unpleasant to see all the blood coming out, and it hurt.

After, I was released i still hurt the rest of the day. I went in before 7,30 am and was finished by 11,30am I think. Before 1pm I was released and home resting. 

That day it hurt to pee and was unpleasant. The next day felt better and by Friday I am still peeing blood but the pain is a lot less.

Over the last few days, my headaches that I have had for months has lessened. 

I believe my blood pressure has come down quite a bit too. When I walk now I can walk with little pain. I have or can twist my body with little pain. Its like there is less swelling in my whole body.

My stones that were inside of me were the sieze of dimes and I could feel them in my gut but now the pain is gone as well as headaches and I believe my blood pressure is lower so am happy about that.

If you every have kidney stones laser Operation it was pretty stress free, I can remember nothing when it happened and now three days latter feel I can get my life back.

I have much less anxiety like I had before, Im hoping I can get a job again and continue my life.

Thanks for reading. 

JC from Escape to Thailand

JC from Escape to Thailand, just sent me his latest update. I haven't watched it yet, but see one of his talking points is how SOME tourists may have to prove they have enough cash to support there stay in Thailand. 

My understanding is they ask to see your cash and ATM cards, credit cards ect. Such as local accounts including how much is in them ect.

Its to the point Thailand and many countries dont want as many foreigners visiting and living in them as before. 

I believe this is a result of covid and the rising inflation and resentment of foreigners being jerks to locals and driving up prices for locals.

In Thailand and many countries there are a lot of expats from Russia escaping war, or expats living cheap and starting businesses that compete with locals. 

The Philippines hasnt cracked down as much but it wouldn't surprise me if they do. 

The cost of living and regulations and tax are driving many citizens out of there countries and now inflation and tax are rising quite a bit.

Canada is in the news with there war on the US. Thats another issue, many are starting to realize there is a serious trade war going on and they will have to take sides and cant stay neutral.

Im not sure where this is all going but its related to The Fourth Turning, Neil Howe. 

Anyway things are changing fast, I hope you have a plan B.

Thanks for reading.