Weekend review (Share prices)

This week share prices did ok. There were quite a few down days and so I had quite a few shorts that worked out pretty well.

The last few weeks I had bought a small gold and silver position thats up more than 15% so thats been nice.

I closed out quite a few commodity position, which in hindsight I should have kept open. 

As many trend following people say, we dont let out winners run, that seems to be true.

I owned some gold shares with nice profit, Newmont Mining,  being one, it used to be at fify sixty bucks a share now quite a bit over one hundred, but on of my ETFs still owns it, ticker MFUT.

One of my biggest positions.

In hindsight I should have bought more shares years ago.

Anyway as I live longer I learn these lessons. 

The share markets seem to be expanding, so most of my share positions are up, Reits,  Healthcare, Equal weight stuff, Small cap dividends, Large cap dividends, Overseas dividends,  ect.

I forgot, my Tech shares, software stuff is up, there are many ETFs for this and by Friday many were up 4% some more.

So despite the start of the week I did ok, but realize I could risk manage better, I mean have larger position sieze in some stuff and smaller in more volatility stuff.

I look forward to next week and continue to think the USD will weaken by how much I dont know. 

I still think there maybe a deflation, disinflation scare where the USD will rally so am ready to turn on a dime. Id rather use leverage on currency when or if the USD rallies on a deflation scare, but longer term accept the political clasd seems to want a weak dollar and reshoring of production, but so does the UK and Europe. 

We live in interesting times as the Chinese say.

I still think its up in the air about the Chinese taking over parts of the US Empire.

Im not sure thats what they want. I still think the US can maintain there Empire, although its not what I want.

I look at whats left of the French and UK Empire and see even they have some kind of Empire, but China and Russia are making inroads there, but still havent got the influence many claim, but im not boots on the ground and know.

I do think China has made inroads in North America and Europe, and ad an North American,  I dont like it.

I do admire the Chinese economy, the technology build out they have achieved. I admire the lifting out of poverty of much of there country. They have electrified there country fast and well much like the US in the past, so admire and admit they are fast learners. I hope the US can compete. 

So far im not inspired. At least we are doing better than the Europeans. 

Speaking of Asia, its doing well and seems to be overtaking much of Europe and the UK and soon North America.  

So long term can see Asia aligning with China.

Only time will tell.

Thanks for reading. 

The inflation forcast is inching up.

The rate of inflation is forecast to go up.

What that will do for the Fed decision to lower or raise rates im not sure.

As I have said in the past I think rates will go down. And over time inflation will go up.

Im not sure if the USD will continue to weaken but policy makers seem to want a re shoring of manufacturing in North America and it will require a weak dollar.

I think we could get it but there could be a Dollar spike with a deflation scare but will be dealt with printing money and rising inflation. 

Anyhow markets opened weak to down. I covered a few shorts and bought a few shares in Teck and Software ETFs.

So far oil ETFs haven't corrected much and so havent bought any.

Share markets in Southern Europe look interesting. 

I think they will rise over time.

Not much else to say.

Buy gold with profits and live in a small city community as the world economy continues to decentralize. 

The future will be bright for some people.

Thanks for reading. 

Besent(Bessie)Falling USD, and rising Gold prices.

Treasury Secretary Bessant, AKA Bessie, made a tweat or announcement about Yield Curve Control today I think and the price of Gold was up over 21/2% AAAU a ticker for Gold bullion was up as much as 3% or more. 

The USD or Dollar got clobbered today. So people who were shorting the Dollar made money today.

Mike Green formally at Simplify sent out an email suggesting that long yield bonds would rally under this new policy and the way "flows" work it would re allocate capital to bonds and overtime lower long term bond yields and create an environment for rising asset prices which I think will happen. 

He also suggested that morgage rates would come down and create an environmente for home sales.

I think he suggested this will create a rising prosperity for North Americans overtime but short term lead to lower inflation but longer term higher inflation so you will need to manage risk well.

I tend to agree with his judgment short term it fixes issues but over the long term it may lead to inflation, I dont know. Maybe the US Government will slash deficit spending and we can all hold hans and sing koombayah and retite wealthy. 

Anyway, it all lead to a broadening rising share market and rising gold prices, and a much lower dollar, at least for now.

I hope this all leads to a reshoring of offshore production to North America and Mexico. 

I believe thats what they the policy makers wish for.

I hope this boosts my small cap portfolio and I think it will.

If you have an FX account with leverage and you were positioned the right way you made a lot of money today.

.uch of my small caps were up 5% or more even the shares in the UK 

Its a beautiful day here in Alamogordo. 

I like walking in the desert near the market close of the day, which here is after 2pm.

Today I left a little early to get out before its to hot.

Hearing the nature in the desert is nice here. Seeing the mountains are nice too.

The Airforce Base is near here so I can always here the planes flying over head and reminds me we are still at war with Iran, and by proxie Russia and China. 

Anyhow thats it for now, thanks for reading. 

Thoughts of the day, Alamogordo, NM

Its the end of the day for trading and investing and share markets were down in the US even gold and I believe the USD rallied 

Anyway Im at the library in Alamogordo, NM and enjoying the Aircon as they say in the Philippines. 

Im just thinking about all the videos I have been watching about the decline of the West, mostly North America the UK and Europe and thinking about that.

It seems to me with AI and Nano technology the economy is readjusting to the new economy and there will be more unemployment in traditional employment and market participants are starting to realize that and we are seeing gold react to that and share markets too.

As always I think governments will continue to reinflate and borrow and spend intell that cant.

I continue to think we will see more self employment and a continuing loss of knowledge in the old economy which could be bad.

I keep seeing people complain about crime and the lack of law enforcement doing anything about it, same with legal and illegal migration. 

I think the illegal migration from the third world will continue. With social media advertising the benefits of welfare and crime not being enforced people will rush in.

It seems western people arent (full) as Asians like to say.

I believe at some point North America will reassert itself and enforce law, but if they dont the western way of life is over.

I cant predict what voters/citizens will do bit still think there is hope, if im wrong owning gold coins will come in handy but wont really save the day but will buy you time.

I still believe that it may become harder to travel and legally migrate for western people.

I still think we will have a trade war with our allies and enemies. 

I still think in the short term inflation can stay high.

I still think the world in ten years will be unrecognizable. 

I prefer to be optimistic because im North American so will continue to invest and build assets if im able too. I hope Europeans can to.

Anyhow thats my thought of the day.

Share markets continue to rally despite world problems

Share markets continue to rally and some are at all time highs or close to it.

The Korean share market has stopped going down and maybe back in a rally.

Japan was down 2% last night. 

So despite Trump tweets the world hasnt plunged into a recession yet.

I continue to see negative articles in AI and job losses related to these job losses. We haven't seen a plunge in share markets yet, but may see it in the future.

I think we have a reflation going on longer term but may see inflation come down short term but only time will tell.

If we have interest rates around the world stay higher for longer and if the Fed holds rates steady or cuts them, that could lead to a much weaker dollar. Most people dont seem to have that on their radar.

I would expect stronger currencies against the US Dollar and higher gold prices. 

Im not sure we will see lower share prices but think it maybe possible in the future. 

Right now im guessing commodity prices will remain high including agriculture prices and anything related to oil and gas.

Like refined products. 

We are already seeing a backlash to foreign tourists in Thailand and a few other places as prices rise for basic stuff and resentment against foreigners rise, like ive seen in Thailand. 

It woulnt surprise me to see less tourism in many countries as prices remain a little high and as WW3 appears to be heating up.

Related to this many people will be limited to what countries welcome them in for tourism and retirement visas ect.

I saw a video last night that suggests border towns in Thailand may ask you to prove you have enough money to pay for your stay.

It was like this in the eighties, which most young people dont know. Its why people lost their travelers checks and got new ones to prove to border guards they could afford their stay.

Does anyone even remember travelers checks?

Anyhow this rising inflation and higher interest rates reminds me of the eighties and ninties.

The economy will have to readjust to all these tariffs and new and rising taxes.

We may start to see a new underground economy despite most people lack of physical cash, im guessing US Dollar coins the ones that maybe private will become the new cash.

Traditional employment maybe cresting now and new cottage industry maybe rising, especially with Nano technology and AI technology. 

We live in interesting times as the Chinese say.

Thanks for reading.

The loss of liberty in my lifetime.

The loss of liberty in my lifetime has been tremendous. 

Im 56, a US citizen and when I was a kid in the 80s you could open an offshore account in the Caribbean or Channel Islands (Sark) Isle of Man, Switzerland, Austria just to name a few place with a photo copy of your passport and certified almost anywhere and a thousand bucks to ten thousand dollars and have a foreign currency account and buy gold coins to be stored at the bank in an envelope. 

It was even possible to open the account with a few hundred bucks equivalent in local currency.

I remember you could buy Austrian shillings bonds for I think a few thousand bucks, and a few gold coins for under a thousand bucks, gold back then was three hundred and changs in the ninties I believe. 

Now its a different story, banks in Europe dont want North Americans as clients, unless you deposit 250,000 minimum usually they want 1 million USD and up. The cost of compliance at banks for US clients just isnt worth the hassle anymore.

Anyhow North Americans cant easily diversify their assets overseas very easily anymore. 

It makes it impossible to hide assets from creditors or Uncle Sam for lower income North Americans. Gold coins held in your own possession is about it or held oversees is about it.

The loss of liberty is tremendous. I believe thats why more middle class North Americans are migrating overseas to Asia and Latin America and even places in Russia to escape the heavy hand of US government and its policies that may not be good for Americans, like rising inflation and cost of living. 

I sometimes wonder if this is why we see more men in the US dropping out of the workforce and living homeless on the streets.

I still remember when you could get a cash paying job, thats mostly impossible unless your an illegal immigrant.

It seems if your North American and want liberty you need to migrate overseas or live in one of the US territorys, like Saipan. 

Much of US law doesn't get enforcement in US territorys like Saipan, so I can see why a few North Americans are choosing that place. I sometimes wonder if its possible to hide assets their, I doubt it.

I wonder if US creditors can reach out and touch you their, it would be interesting to find out. For the record I have no creditors. 

I cant really add much more but the loss of liberty in North America has really changed the culture in a bad way and if we are to keep our prosperity we will need to change the culture or more young people will leave, like the older generations have and taking their wisdom and knowledge. 

As this wisdom leaves it cant really come back and thats the sad thing. 

What Americans built up over hundred of years could be gone.

Thanks for reading. 

Another beautiful day in Alamogordo, NM

I got up this morning at about 7am, had a pretty goid rest last night and decided to shower and go to Micky Ds for a small coffee, which in August 2026 costs 1,09 which isnt to bad, at Starbucks it would be over 3 bucks now for a small coffee. 

I am surprised more people arent inside, but I guess people dont get up eary.

In Xela, Guatemala at 6am there would be people inside early, Guatemalans can get up early, unlike in Mexico where I think they open at 9am or so.

Anyhow I am just thinking about the past and how I lived in Guatemala and Mexico. 

Lately I been watching videos on YouTube on all the homeless people I seem to see on YouTube who have channels documenting there homeless journey in life.

Its interesting to see how many people get Adsense revenue from there YouTube channel and are able to fund their life style despite being homeless. 

The second thing I notice on YouTube is Simplify asset management and the chap who runs FOXY thats the symbol for the ETF that invests in foreign currency and gets yield or "carry" from their currency trades.

Many people dont seem to realize you can get a yield or carry from investing in foreign currency, which I guess surprises me.

When I was a kid and involved in the gold bug movement, there was a segment of people who invested offshore, put there money in banks offshore and invested in foreign currency and got a spread or yield on their deposit. 

Yiska bank did that in Denmark, I have spelled the name of the bank right, I cant remember the name of that bank but they were popular for FX trades that got yields or carry and it was a popular bank for North Americans.

I remember some years their trades would get a 30 to 50% move all in return. 

Anyhow Simply now has an ETF FOXY that does essentially similiar type trades and all you have to invest is one share and the carry is more than 8% and many investors seem to not trust the way the money gets the yield, which surprises me.

Anyhow its nice seeing Simplify asset management able to explain the benefits of the ETF on various influencers YouTube channels. What a world we live in now.

You can be down in your luck homeless, have a YouTube channel and various sales funnels to get money, invest in FOXY and get a monthly check or direct deposit in your bank from FOXY and a check from Adsense and be on your business all while homeless, times have changed. 

Of course I suggest you get your direct deposits while you sit in your crib in Northern Mexico, or somewhere in Cambodia, or better yet Manila where things are a bit less costly than the US and enjoy your gains their.

Of course the worlds a big place, you could ride the trains in Eastern Europe or Russia and do similiar but your ATM card doesnt work as well in Russia so youll need a deposit account in Georgia, the country to do this now.

Anyhow just a few thoughts while I sip my coffee at Micky Ds. 

Thanks for reading. 

Another nice day in Alamogordo, NM

Its another nice day in Alamogordo, NM and not as hot as its been the last few weeks.

I actually feel better now that I have been able to get medical care and medication.

I might be able to go back to work, although in Alamogordo not many are highering now.

If I'm lucky, I might be able to get all or mostly all my bills paid from June 18th when I was hurt on the job and rushed to the hospital for  five day stay. 

Workmans comp woulnt pay or cover it, I can sue if I want but if the government pays through medicaid ill let it go.

Medical bills in the US are getting outrageous and many cant pay or refuse to pay and its getting harder for hospitals to get the courts to make people pay.

I think as the US empire winds down more states in the US will make it more difficult for medical creditors or and creditors to take money out of your bank or sieze your assets including ERISA assets, houses ect.....I see Texas and Florida and Wyoming are leading to states to redide where creditors have a tough time seizing income or assets 

I see Alaska is not falling behind either.

I believe in the future more states will have more rights than others and that will dri e migration to those places.

I believe the Northern Marianas Islands will fall into that category too.

As more North Americans learn about the tax benefits of Saipan it will lead a small segment of people to relocate their.

Whats nice about the Northern Mariananas islands is that most Americans dont even know where they are or have even heard of them.

I like Saipan the best but it may not be for everyone.

Thanks for reading. 

I miss Alaska.

I notice when I get up in the morning, I still have images of Seward, Alaska in my head.

I worked in Seward for about six months last year and when I wasn't working, id hike in the mountains and pass by streams full of salmon. It was nice seeing the ocean come up against the mountains. 

Other times I would ride the bike into town and park it, lock it up and get a coffee at the bakery, which was owned I believe by a Thai lady. If I remember right she had Thai women work their and a few Filipinas.

They had good coffee and bakery items. The memory is nice.

After id get the coffee id walk to the waterfront and watch all the boats,and the big tourist ships come in.

It was nice walking around the waterfront and seeing all the tourists from around the world walking around same as me looking at the sights.

They had a sea museum if I remember right, or aquarium. 

The cool thing was the campsites which were on the waterfront where you could camp in a tent ot camper and start a fire and cook oustside and visit with other people.

Anyhow the memories of that experience was nice. 

The weather wasnt bad either, reminded me of Seattle, Washington. 

As I recall there was even a few homeless people their at least in the summer.

In the town and countryside there were nice houses, campsites ect...a few bars and cafes to eat at too.

In the country was where Pacific Seafood was at, at least their old location was there and the bunkhouse was more in the sticks.

Although when I left last year they were transferring everything to a new location. 

As Im not their anymore they chose not to invite me, I still miss the work despite all the issues their.

Share markets. 

Last week share prices were up same with gold.

Many emerging markets corrected and were up on Friday, I believe on Monday the markets will rally and gold will continue up.

Dividend shares, and ETFs continue to go up, same with infrastructure ETFs ect, even the overseas infrastructure projects continue to rally.

I think inflation will continue to be stubborn and stay a little elevated but in time the Fed will lower rates.

Im not sure I like bonds now except to short the long end of the curve.

There may come a time to invest in bonds long term just not now.

Some bond proxies like reit maybe ok but Utes not now.

Infrastructure projects probably are my favorite income play now then some Reits especially the ones overseas. 

Thats it for now.

Thanks for reading.

The stock market rally expands.

The share market rally in the US continues to expand.  The rally in emerging markets continues to rally.

Same with dividend shares, and value shares. 

Anyhow i was up this morning and it was nice to see share prices up.

E.B Tucker. 

I read the latest issue of E.B. Tucker s news letter. 

I get the free version, and read the latest issue.

As usual it was good, as he says most people would be better of spending there extra money on living a good life instead of listening to other people online and speculating in stock tips they dont really understand. 

He even talked about a manufacturer of tennis racquets thats publicly traded in I believe Japan. 

There are interesting opportunities like that now in Japan that no one buys or owns that quietly pay out dividends and slowly double over time.

Anyway it was nice reading his letter, its rare to read stuff thats not AI written that makes any sense nowdays. 

Its also rare to read stuff that suggests you live a good life and stop chasing money. 

He even talks about health sometimes, not many people really care about that either and family too.

Our culture has changed over the years.

Thanks for reading. 

The reflation continues.

The reflation continues. Well the inflation numbers came out this morning and inflation was better than expected and we are getting a stock market rally.

I believe inflation will stay higher than most people believe and in a month or two inflation numbers will start trending up, possibly after the Fed lowers interest rates.

With lower inflation expectations, id guess this will give the Fed permission to lower rates, and take pressure off funding the deficit at these high rates.

The corporations would like lower rates to fund there expansions.

I think inflation will still be a problem for the K shaped economy, especially if you are in the bottom K where resentment is going up and by quite a bit.

At least for now shares are up and you can add tech ETFs to your Reits, your insurance ETFs, and small cap dividend ETFs, and your larger cap ones too.

The economy is expanding despite this recent slowdown at least in North America.

Not much to add, have fewer shorts and more longs.

I forgot to mention, at least for now if the Fed lowers interest rates, that may put pressure on the US Dollar, so gold, silver, etherium, foreign currency may rally from here for awhile. Gold may go up and stay up no matter what happens. 

The trust in US Treasurys are in decline around the world and many people continue to buy and own gold coins.

If we get a deflation, I expect gold to trend down but many will not sell for fear of a world wide reflation.

Thanks for reading. 

Good day in markets.

It was a good day in markets today. They were mostly down, I had a few shorts and longs that worked well.

I was up 10 or so basis points by the end of the close.

I think tomorrow maybe a rally, despite the ongoing wars and inflation issues. 

It seems we are in new times and markets are readjusting to these issues. 

I continue to believe inflation will tick down but long term will remain high.

I think the world readjusting to higher inflation and wars and slower growth will lead to higher commoditys and probably higher gold prices. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

Reirecheap.asia/ Escape to Thailand (JC/Nat) Retire the channel?

JC and Nat made there latest update video on there channel EscapetoThailand.com, I believe is there channel.

They may stop content on there channel because of lack of interest. 

There is maybe a fifty persent chance the keep the channel. 

JC said the channel may not create enough income to pay the bills associated with the channel. 

I have always believed they have one of the best channels on living in Thailand, and Asia in general. 

More than ten years ago I believe I started watching Retire Cheap Asia while I was still working for Electrolux in St. Cloud Minnesota.

I believe JC has commented on the decline of information on Thailand subjects and he has commented on the negative comments he gets from other channels he has.

He has also said its harder to collect money from PayPal and send it to Thailand. 

I believe thats why many channels not related to travel are shutting down. 

Payment processing is getting more difficult to do if you live outside of North America and complying with new and growing regulations in Thailand and other countries makes it more difficult and may not be worth people's time if they cant get compisated.

I believe this is sought by governments to keep people from fleeing unpopular situations and living in other countries. I mean governments dont like the tax cows leaving, like inthe UK and Europe. 

Anyways im sad to hear this news but JC hasnt decided to shut the channel down. 

But he has multiple online and offline business and I believe income from Social Security so may not want more business hassles with little compensation. 

I believe we will continue to see these trends. AI has really created opportunities and bad outcomes for many people and the AI trend is just starting. 

Thanks for reading.