Its a rainy day here in the Midwest (Clear Lake, Iowa)

Its raining in Clear Lake, Iowa, here on a Monday. 

Ive been here a few weeks sense leaving Alamogordo, NM. 

Its getting chilly here and the leaves are falling and it seems from my research there are less jobs now.

Its the end of the world as we know it.

Ok its not the end of the world and it appears chaotic from all the news events we get from Europe and the Middle East, but its probably just the Fourth Turning as I understand it.

I read the book years ago and thought it entertaining but not really thinking things would fall apart in North America or Europe for that matter but here we are.

AI technology appears to be changing the world in ways I dont really understand and changing it very fast, so fast I cant readjust to it, at least when it comes to lost jobs, faster moving share markets both up and down and similiar with this two year bear market in bonds.

In my lifetime most college grads would have a decent chance to get a new job that pays well and lasts at least a decade, those days seem over.

Politically it seems like the people are divided. Culturally it seems similiar and with young versus old, and men versus women. People just arent coming together and it devides us and helps our enemies, or at least thats what I see.

The biggest thing I see is our American culture is changing fast, we dont seem to have the same values, our rule of law is breaking down so you cant plan for the future in safe ways. People dont have families anymore, and depency on the State is at record levels. 

More people are on SSI or Social Security, even immigrants especially people are on medicaid or medicare ect. UBI is popular among both the left and right.

Now its election season and the war in Iran and Russia rolls on.

What to do?

Id like to say people ask me all the time where to escape too? But that never happens. 

Now more and more Europe, the UK and many places in the Middle East and Asia including China have digital currency and digital ID and digital scores to track and trace wherever you go and whatever you do. 

The authorities can shut off your bank account, or debank you. Shut you out of the healthcare system, the food system everything and really theres no safe guaranteed place to run too.

Latin America 

In Latin America there will be these laws and regulations but not as enforced because of cultural reasons, I think in South America it will be difficult to enforce these things, there is still cash and a culture that doesn't enforce these things, and a culture of corruption much like Ukraine and Russia.

So that will be an option for some. Pick good regions, especially in Mexico or Guatemala ect. Same with Brazil, Southern Brazil is more tolerant of North Americans, similiar in Uruguay at least in most of the country. I dont know what to make of Paraguay. 

They are tightening up immigration but many countries are, but for North Americans its still easy to arrange and stay there.

Asia

I prefer Asia but recognize culturally I woulnt fit in accept for maybe Philippines but still would stand out.

Most of Asia at least the prosperous parts like rules and culturally expect you to follow them. If they are reasonable to you its safe their and very different.

The cost of living in most places isnt really high.

Personally I prefer Philippines, or Cambodia if you dont mind the Chinese influence.  Even in Philippines the Chinese are making moves, but at least in Philippines its still affordable safe if your not stupid, and the visa is easy to get and maintain. 

Saipan is part of the US, its a territory of the US. Its part of the Northern Mariana Islands. 

Even though its in the middle of nowhere its one of the better choices for some.

Its English speaking almost half the people are Filipino. So culturally its similiar to the Philippines. 

The cost of living is reasonable, but most things cost more if they are imported. Its not a big island. 

Only 50,000 people or less. Everyone knows everyone so its safe and unpopular laws from the US arent enforced, which I like.

Its in Asia so you have to fly to Korea or Japan or the Philippines or wherever for better healthcare. 

Taxes are half as much as the US.

Of course theres a lot of negatives. For many opportunities youd have to go to Asia, which isnt to expensive. 

Theres only one hospital. 

The population isnt growing. 

You have to like the quiet life and wet markets if you want an affordable life.

Anyways these arent the only options. There are many more.

Thanks for reading. 

Hedgeye....

 Many times I make comments on Quad 4 or Quad 2 or where I believe where we are for the economy in reference to the economy. 

Anyways its the service I use.

I like it, Here is the linkhttps://hedgeyeriskmanagementllc.referralrock.com/l/MARTINHONN17/

Cool carbon steel knives.

Esty knives. Carbon steel and sheaths. 

These are some interesting knives I bought on esty for 45 dollars and up. The one above was 60 plus If I remember right.

I like the sheaths and the carbon steel. They are also not much cost wise.

The one above ia pocket knive with sharpen tool on the sheath. The picture isnt the best quality, so not sure you can see it.

These are well made knives and not much to buy. The quality is good too. Usually good quality costs much more.

The above picture maybe my favorite one. I really like the sheaths too, im a bit surprised how well they are stitched. 

Anyhow I probably bought too.

Thanks for reading.

I like some of the current YouTube vloggers, While many don't.

(Cambodia, Siem Reap)

Gold fish.

I think the above photo is Siem Reap, at the mall entrance. I think they are gold fish, anyways I still have the fotos in my phone.

It brings back memories of living their for six months or more a few years ago.

I bring this up because I see more YouTube videos on people describing there lifestyle living in Cambodia or Philippines for 300 to 500 USD per month and it seems to trigger a lot of people to leave comments that its not possible or why would you live like that, or its better to live like a slave in North America or Europe than live frugally in Asia and build up an online business or a brick and mortar business their.

I like to see how people live in these places for much less and escape the rat race and appear to have a much better life, despite living on a lot less.

Im actually surprised more homeless Americans who get online income dont get a passport and just leave.

I think culturally online apps have rewired many Americans brains and made them less open to the possibilities. 

Im not sure to be honest, why there is so much hostility to people leaving the West and living on 1k or less while they build an income somewhere, where they are treated well and are welcomed. 

Anyway, its not impossible to find apartments in the Philippines for 80 to 150 USD and up.

Its even possible to get them less, and they are pretty nice and in safe neighborhoods.

The biggest concern is makeing sure you have access to water and not in a flood zone, if your in the Manila area.

In the province, these issues are less but the downside is access to healthcare and education opportunities for your kids or similiar opportunities for adults who want access to different people and places that only the capital city can offer.

In the province though things are much cheaper, the slower pace of life is more interesting and also being in nature is easier.

I liked swimming with sea horses and tropical fish in the province of the Philippines (Samar). 

The beach life their was easy to access and affordable to use and experience. 

There are nice beach resorts in Luzon, to be sure, and price wise not that much to stay in on the weekends and eat seafood and swim on the beach, compared to America or Hawaii. 

My biggest issue wasnt cost of living but making money and health-care. I was there a few years ago but am referring to when I lived their twenty years ago.

I enjoy seeing yound Western Europeans living their on much less than I did and showing how anyone can do this but also showing the pitfalls too.

I see North Americans to making videos too. Usually from Canada or the US but from everywhere.  Even Russians and Mexicans and I see Africans settling in Philippines or Thailand making videos of their experiences. 

The changing times.

I think we will see more people leave the ratt race and settle in other countries and live a quieter life.

I believe as baby boomers and gen xers retire or retire earlier because of lack of traditional employment this will happen. 

As the cost of retirement goes up for baby boomers the Government s of the world will inflate currencies to pay for retirement and healthcare benefits and the rising cost of immigration into to Western World. 

As this happens younger men and women will escape the West if it doesn't address these issues. 

In fact I believe we are seeing the beginning of these trends in North America and Europe. 

I just wonder how much longer we can experience a lower cost of living in places like Cambodia and Philippines. 

What I can say is enjoy it now while you still can.

Thanks for reading. 

It seems the economy is slowing down.(Quad 4)

Seward, Alaska 

Well its a cool day here in Clear Lake, Iowa. 

Today is Friday, markets are down quite a bit so many of my short sells are profitable. So I covered a lot of shorts this morning. 

I finally started a long in bonds, but expect to get some pull backs to add to it.

It seems like the economy is slowing down. The Tech arena is selling off today as is Private Equity, and other things, including silver, gold,and other commodities. 

I noticed some small caps have rallied quite a bit, but I'm still short the Russel Index.

Anyhow thats it for markets. 

The culture is changing. The Fourth Turning.

I notice more men and women are dropping out of society. I see it more with men, but have noticed this is happening with women too.

You can see it on YouTube, there is a channel with a women in AZ I think who bought raw land and is building a house in the desert and finding online ways to earn income for herself and daughter. 

There are more examples of this. People are dropping out and living on reduced income and living frugally and seem to enjoy it.

Many are starting Websites and YouTube channels and monetizing it and earning enough without working a day job in a brick and mortor business. 

It seems to be preferred to earning more, buying a house and getting medical benefits. 

You see this with channels on living overseas too. I watch the ones where people are saying they live on 300 to 500USD a month in S.E. Asia. 

Many of these channels get hate comments and resentment because people are choosing to leave the system and living cheaply in Philippines or places like Cambodia or Thailand. 

Theres even disbelief you can rent for 80 to 120 or even less if you want to in those places, and spen a few hundred on food utilities and immigration fees.

Its like the slaves have left the plantation and discovered they can live free and not be dependent on government or the slave owner.

At least thats my opinion. The shadows on the cave walls come to mind.(Plato)

Anyway I enjoy those YouTube channels and seeing people enjoying there lives overseas and the ones who stay in the States.

Bicycle life.

There a channel I enjoy watching, where a gentleman in his 60s I believe lives on a bike, has no apartment, camps at night, wild camping or camps in sheds he either owns or friends of his.

He works online for income and I think does odd jobs to pay his expenses in life and is planning to take his life on the road show, South America, and El Salvador, I think.

He can live the same life with less hassle from fellow Americans and law enforcement. 

He gets resentment from people because he lives well, is not homeless but doesn't pay rent and lives we..but again thats my opinion. 

One more thing. Dividends and Covered Call ETFs.

There is another gentleman who lives in Asia mainly but visits other regions too.

He has a YouTube site, earns income from it but spends about 1,500 to sometimes 2,000 USD a month traveling around Asia.

He used to be an contractor offshore, made good money, got the 100k earned income credit, so payed little or no income tax, saved more than 300K and invested it in covered call ETFs and other dividents ETFs like BDCs and growing dividend income funds.

He earns enough income from that, so he can spend what he needs and reinvest whats left and grow his capital base.

I like his videos too. He seems to enjoy the slow paces like in Thailand ect. He sees his family and kids to, usually in Indonesia, if I remember right.

These are all alternatives to the usual life, and none as far as I know has gotten retirement income from Social Security or private pensions.

One last comment. 

Theres another gentleman who lives in Mexico,  The broke millionaire, hes Canadian I think.

He retired from the rat race of North America and burned down his business and I think rebuilt his life from nothing and now lives on a piece of raw land he and his friends bought, built a house and goes surfing everyday and makes YouTube videos about it.

He has a consulting service for income I believe, make a grand a month or less and lives pretty well from what I see.

Anyway this is how culture is changing and is probably an indication of how the loss of confidence is turning many men and women away from our traditional lifestyle and seems to indicate a lack of trust in the establishment and is another clue of The Fourth Turning. 

Thanks for reading. 

Inflation numbers up.

Inflation numbers up today. People now expect the Fed may raise interest rates at there next meeting. I think we may have one more Inflation report thats unexpectedly high then we will see expectations for lower rates and a slower economy.

Right now we are in a quad 2 environment (@hedgeeye)

Soon maybe sooner than I realize it will be quad 4 and a much slower economy and a bond market rally which many dont expect. 

As of now you can short bonds and bond proxies and make money. Soon maybe in the next few months bonds will rally. 

We live in interesting times as the Chinese like to say.

Today you could have shorted various things and covered for a nice profit. 

Thanks for reading.

Another down day in share prices, EU, Asia, North America.

( Clear Lake, Iowa)

Another quad 2 day today. @Hedgeeye

Markets were down, all over the world,  my shorts did well, covered some and opened a few new ones in Industrials and retail, and closed some. XLI is one I closed some out.

Software shares were down some were up and generally speaking they are up quite a lot.

Same with healthcare, Japan appears to be trending. 

Anyway, I was down more thanI wanted but overtime going up.

Cant add much. It appears inflation overtime will come down but not today.

The economy maybe slowing, and the wars drag on.

I think there is to much complacency in markets right now and we will soon have an deflation scare, or disinflation scare in a few months and then it maybe time to buy bonds and bond proxies. 

Anyhow, im in Iowa and will enjoy the sunset here.

Thanks for reading. 

P.S. i still miss Alaska!

Quad2, buy growth ETFs

Quad two environment now, slowing inflation and growth. 

In that scenario id buy healthcare, growth, software, and large cap growth.

XLF, XLE, XOP, XLV, ect IBB IGV, or things already trending in those ETFs.

This post is coming from Clear Lake, Iowa. 

Normally im in Alamogordo, NM.

Anyhow its drizzle here in Iowa and starting to cool down.

The wars continue in Europe and the Middle East. Speaking of Middle East, buy UAE..  I'm shorting, Germany, Suiza and India ect against it.

Anyhow jobs in the Midwest are less now, so the economy is slowing. 

The world is changing fast. I keep thinking about the Fourth Turning and how we are living through it.

I read about it as a kid and now its happening, I remember Doug Casey being a fan but Gary North not so much.

Now we are living through wars, record corruption around the world and technology changing faster than people can adjust.

If you can make it through it, I believe you will see mass wealth creation and prosperity for all, but the volatility will kill many. Like the loniness and addictive nature of legal drugs, gambling and lack of meaning in life.

We are seeing the first clues of where this is going with more private colleges closing. With people not even studying anymore. 

Anyhow its creating many opportunities to enjoy yourself and prosper if you stay offline.

Thanks for reading. 

Deflation maybe the next scare.

Deflation maybe the next scare coming. 

I expect the next few inflation prints coming will show inflation spiking up because of the wars in Russia and Iran. 

Six months from now it woulnt surprise me if long interest rates were down.

I believe the economy is slowing with high petro prices and high diesel prices and the commodity prices associated with them. Corn prices and wheat prices maybe going up and with diesel prices high, transport costs associated with them will keep grocery prices elevated. 

Still the economy is slowing and I expect interest rates over time will come down and the Fed may rates a few times but in six months may lower them faster than expected. 

I wouldn't buy bonds now but when they start trending bonds and their proxies will start to rally just not today, and six months from now is a long time.

Euro prices.

I expect the euro to eventually melt down against the dollar, same with the Yen.

Gold will probably go up even with Deflation but only time will tell.

I believe world Deflation will be met with money printing in most places in the world and because of that woulnt be surprised to see gold go up just not a lot inless you live in Japan, Europe orthe UK.

So even with many problems in the US the USD could remain elevated despite establishment people wanting it lower.

Either way I expect high asset prices over time in most of the world.

If you have access to low cost debt or leverage use it to attain assets and just wait and work your business or job and enjoy life.

Thanks for reading. 

Another letter from E.B. Tucker

I like E.B. Tucker.  He has a good letter. The letter I got before the latest was about waiting in lines.

We wait in lines nowdays to get many things but especially if you want to buy luxury watches. 

I dont want to buy a watch but know many people who do and now some watch makers make you buy the less valuable watches then you can buy the ones you want.

E.B. pointed out much of what we buy is fashionable by many people but its not what we want. We buy whats considered beautiful or fashionable by other people so dont really buy what we enjoy or want.

I think hes right, we dont really enjoy what wealth we have and spend time and money on things and experiences we dont really enjoy. 

I see people dont really enjoy the prosperity they have now. Thats the case in North America at least.

Its probably why I enjoy S.E. Asia and Latin America. 

Things dont cost much their and you can spend time in nature and really enjoy yourself. 

Its like we have built guided cages for ourselves and we dont really enjoy it much.

We seem to be going towards a different economy and culture. In twenty years it will be completely different. 

Anyhow next week is a new week for trading and investment and so far this last week and weekend, it seems the US is losing its war in the East, I mean both of them.

It will be interesting to see if the US Dollar holds its value, im curious if gold closes above its trend line. 

I see big changes in culture everywhere, Europe North America, and Asia, not sure what to make of it.

Even Doug Casey and Matt Smith are concerned with some kind of deflation and then a reflation, the times are changing. 

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

Another down day in markets.

Another down day in markets. 

The markets were mostly down today. Oil was up and some of my oil and gas shares were up.

I had a few shorts thar I closed out and added a few more shorts before the close, mostly industrials. CAT ,I shorted that too.

I closed out my platinum ETF too, made over 1% on it.

Today I sold a lot of my small caps because I think they will continue to sell off.

I think software shares will continue to rally a long with commodity stuff. Gas, Weit ect. Sprott has nuclear stuff, I cant remember the the ticker, but its yellow cake. 

I dont think the war with Russia or Iran willstop anytime soon.

The Chinese continue to but oil from the Middle East, and oil is now priced in the 90s.

So I continue to think markets will sell off and when the inflation numbers come out and inflation ticks higher I expect bonds to sell off. So expect higher interest rates.

I still dont think the Fed will raise rates but if they do, soon after they may lower them faster than people think.

Either way expect higher volatility. 

The US Doller didnt really rally much, so I expect the USD to go lower over time.

The Canadian Dollar keeps rallying against the USD despite trade sanctions and trade frictions.

The Mexican Peso and Colombian Peso are up against the US Dollar too.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading  

Holiday, markets closed.(US)

Well its Monday and the markets are closed at least in the US. Futures were open last night.

The US Dollar is weak in FX trading. I believe oil was up last night. I believe the war with Iran is on in ernest same in Russia. 

I believe the Presidents son and other administration men were in russia last night, now I believe they are in Ukraine. 

I believe both wars are not going to end. Russia appears to be winning in Ukraine, although the price for winning is high.

Iran I believe is winning too, but thats bad for Europe and the Middle East. 

Good for North America. 

Im not sure but it could be why the US dollar is headed lower at least until a crisis happens. 

Gold I think will slowly go higher, not sure about silver but woulnt be surprised if it goes higher too, along with copper and other commodities. 

I bought WEAT last week. And Natural Gas.

Even if the dollar goes higher or lower I see real assets going higher at least until there's a crisis. 

Im starting to think the Fed and Treasury wants a weak dollar, although more and more people are seeing that.

Then there is China and the AI race.

Another reason to own commodities, Gold and software shares. Software maybe considered an inflation hedge by many market participants. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

The world is changing fast.(Decentralizing)

I haven't posted in awhile. 

The markets were down Friday, gold too. Anyway I still think we will see lower rates, and a weaker USD.

The President (Trump) keeps tweeting he wants lower interest rates and a weaker dollar come what may.

Anyhow I still think we are in a reflation environment. And a reflation of the share markets. Including commoditys and gold.

The nation continues to decentralize. 

The US nation continues to decentralize among the haves and have nots, the infamous K shaped economy. 

Its similar in Europe too.

I see videos all the time of rising homelessness in Germany, Canada and the US.

The policy makers have chosen to destroy the middle classes and working classes.

So I continue to think the economy is decentralizing. I see similiar in Russia too.

As wars and inflation heat up I believe we will continue to see a loss of faith in the American Dream.

I think you will see more men and women dropping out of the workforce and working will decline. 

So inflation and tax will go up to pay for this loss of faith. 

The good news is all this new technology will create new ways of creating wealth and prosperity that governments will be hard pressed to tax or regulate.

So employers will have to offer higher wages to get employees or let in more immigrants. 

Im sure they will do both, including using robots and AI to lower employment costs.

All this could lead to lower prices, giving the government opportunities to inflate their currencies more.

Its why Gold, Bitcoin, ETH may go up alot as well as other assets.

Living in smaller cities and countries maybe more attractive going forward. 

I see more North Americans leaving for other countries.

Anyways thanks for reading. 

Shares, Gold, Silver,Fx, Update

Shares on Friday, I think were mostly down, at least the ones I own.

Silver was down more than 4% and gold 3%,  so I bought more.

The USD was up so I closed out some dollar shorts but not all.

I still think the stock market continues to inflate upwards and the same with commoditys. 

I m not sure about the dollar but would guess it can weaken if they dont raise interest rates, which is what im betting, at least for now.

I always expect a USD Dollar spike if the wars continue and theres a recession but im still not convinced of a recession yet, or a deflation scare, but I do think its possible. 

In that circumstance, id want gold and USD.

Its Sunday morning here in Alamogordo, NM. A beautiful day here for walking. 

I feel pretty good after my surgery and can twist my neck and body to see a lot better. I notice I can get out of bed faster and feel better in the morning when I get up.

Anyhow I look forward to the open tonight to see how gold and the dollar trades. Im curious if Asian markets rally or sell off.

I also look forward to working again if I can and or going to Asia or maybe Saipan, but id need some savings from a job to get a start.

Thanks for reading. 

Day 4 sense my surgery. Kidney stones removal.

This Tuesday, I had 2 kidney stones removed with surgery, laser removal. 

Anyhow today is Saturday and I can Pee now fairly normal now. I can walk without much pain, but the big difference is I have little to no anxiety. 

I believe my blood pressure has gone down so I dont get much anxiety anymore, which kept me from getting a job.

When I was up in Alaska, I slipped on a fish fell down and was in the hospital. They workmans comp paid the initial bill but the follow up bill was over 10k which they didnt pay.

The good news was the hospital forgave the bill. Which surprised me, but I was happy they did. This happened in Seward, Alaska. 

I mention all this because it happened when I had kidney stones which causes me anxiety and pain in my body, which is why I slipped on the fish.

Anyway I feel good today getting my life back after these last two years.

My headaches are gone or mostly gone, which I believe was from my elevated blood pressure, which was from the kidney stones, which I didnt realize. 

The sad part is now I lost my job in Iowa, McKesson, which paid well. I then went to Alaska and they didnt call me back ,I believe because of the workmans comp issue. 

Anyhow I feel better now with lower blood pressure and getting my life back.

Now I just want a job and to save some money and maybe move to Saipan or Asia but right now ill move to Iowa and try to get a job or some work in Alaska. 

Thank s for reading. 

Day three, sense my surgery (Kidney Stones)

This Tuesday, I had my kidney stones removed surgically. I believe they used a laser. 

When you go to the hospital, they check your blood and do a few more tests to make sure your fine.

Then they put an IV in you and give you antibiotics then when its your turn to go into sugery they knock you out with drugs, then put a camera inside your body to see your stones, then zap them with a laser.

As you can amagine it causes your insides to bleed.

Anyhow I dont remember anything, I woke up in slight pain and had to pee out the blood and stones inside me which hurt.

It was unpleasant to see all the blood coming out, and it hurt.

After, I was released i still hurt the rest of the day. I went in before 7,30 am and was finished by 11,30am I think. Before 1pm I was released and home resting. 

That day it hurt to pee and was unpleasant. The next day felt better and by Friday I am still peeing blood but the pain is a lot less.

Over the last few days, my headaches that I have had for months has lessened. 

I believe my blood pressure has come down quite a bit too. When I walk now I can walk with little pain. I have or can twist my body with little pain. Its like there is less swelling in my whole body.

My stones that were inside of me were the sieze of dimes and I could feel them in my gut but now the pain is gone as well as headaches and I believe my blood pressure is lower so am happy about that.

If you every have kidney stones laser Operation it was pretty stress free, I can remember nothing when it happened and now three days latter feel I can get my life back.

I have much less anxiety like I had before, Im hoping I can get a job again and continue my life.

Thanks for reading. 

JC from Escape to Thailand

JC from Escape to Thailand, just sent me his latest update. I haven't watched it yet, but see one of his talking points is how SOME tourists may have to prove they have enough cash to support there stay in Thailand. 

My understanding is they ask to see your cash and ATM cards, credit cards ect. Such as local accounts including how much is in them ect.

Its to the point Thailand and many countries dont want as many foreigners visiting and living in them as before. 

I believe this is a result of covid and the rising inflation and resentment of foreigners being jerks to locals and driving up prices for locals.

In Thailand and many countries there are a lot of expats from Russia escaping war, or expats living cheap and starting businesses that compete with locals. 

The Philippines hasnt cracked down as much but it wouldn't surprise me if they do. 

The cost of living and regulations and tax are driving many citizens out of there countries and now inflation and tax are rising quite a bit.

Canada is in the news with there war on the US. Thats another issue, many are starting to realize there is a serious trade war going on and they will have to take sides and cant stay neutral.

Im not sure where this is all going but its related to The Fourth Turning, Neil Howe. 

Anyway things are changing fast, I hope you have a plan B.

Thanks for reading. 

Weekend review (Share prices)

This week share prices did ok. There were quite a few down days and so I had quite a few shorts that worked out pretty well.

The last few weeks I had bought a small gold and silver position thats up more than 15% so thats been nice.

I closed out quite a few commodity position, which in hindsight I should have kept open. 

As many trend following people say, we dont let out winners run, that seems to be true.

I owned some gold shares with nice profit, Newmont Mining,  being one, it used to be at fify sixty bucks a share now quite a bit over one hundred, but on of my ETFs still owns it, ticker MFUT.

One of my biggest positions.

In hindsight I should have bought more shares years ago.

Anyway as I live longer I learn these lessons. 

The share markets seem to be expanding, so most of my share positions are up, Reits,  Healthcare, Equal weight stuff, Small cap dividends, Large cap dividends, Overseas dividends,  ect.

I forgot, my Tech shares, software stuff is up, there are many ETFs for this and by Friday many were up 4% some more.

So despite the start of the week I did ok, but realize I could risk manage better, I mean have larger position sieze in some stuff and smaller in more volatility stuff.

I look forward to next week and continue to think the USD will weaken by how much I dont know. 

I still think there maybe a deflation, disinflation scare where the USD will rally so am ready to turn on a dime. Id rather use leverage on currency when or if the USD rallies on a deflation scare, but longer term accept the political clasd seems to want a weak dollar and reshoring of production, but so does the UK and Europe. 

We live in interesting times as the Chinese say.

I still think its up in the air about the Chinese taking over parts of the US Empire.

Im not sure thats what they want. I still think the US can maintain there Empire, although its not what I want.

I look at whats left of the French and UK Empire and see even they have some kind of Empire, but China and Russia are making inroads there, but still havent got the influence many claim, but im not boots on the ground and know.

I do think China has made inroads in North America and Europe, and ad an North American,  I dont like it.

I do admire the Chinese economy, the technology build out they have achieved. I admire the lifting out of poverty of much of there country. They have electrified there country fast and well much like the US in the past, so admire and admit they are fast learners. I hope the US can compete. 

So far im not inspired. At least we are doing better than the Europeans. 

Speaking of Asia, its doing well and seems to be overtaking much of Europe and the UK and soon North America.  

So long term can see Asia aligning with China.

Only time will tell.

Thanks for reading. 

The inflation forcast is inching up.

The rate of inflation is forecast to go up.

What that will do for the Fed decision to lower or raise rates im not sure.

As I have said in the past I think rates will go down. And over time inflation will go up.

Im not sure if the USD will continue to weaken but policy makers seem to want a re shoring of manufacturing in North America and it will require a weak dollar.

I think we could get it but there could be a Dollar spike with a deflation scare but will be dealt with printing money and rising inflation. 

Anyhow markets opened weak to down. I covered a few shorts and bought a few shares in Teck and Software ETFs.

So far oil ETFs haven't corrected much and so havent bought any.

Share markets in Southern Europe look interesting. 

I think they will rise over time.

Not much else to say.

Buy gold with profits and live in a small city community as the world economy continues to decentralize. 

The future will be bright for some people.

Thanks for reading. 

Besent(Bessie)Falling USD, and rising Gold prices.

Treasury Secretary Bessant, AKA Bessie, made a tweat or announcement about Yield Curve Control today I think and the price of Gold was up over 21/2% AAAU a ticker for Gold bullion was up as much as 3% or more. 

The USD or Dollar got clobbered today. So people who were shorting the Dollar made money today.

Mike Green formally at Simplify sent out an email suggesting that long yield bonds would rally under this new policy and the way "flows" work it would re allocate capital to bonds and overtime lower long term bond yields and create an environment for rising asset prices which I think will happen. 

He also suggested that morgage rates would come down and create an environmente for home sales.

I think he suggested this will create a rising prosperity for North Americans overtime but short term lead to lower inflation but longer term higher inflation so you will need to manage risk well.

I tend to agree with his judgment short term it fixes issues but over the long term it may lead to inflation, I dont know. Maybe the US Government will slash deficit spending and we can all hold hans and sing koombayah and retite wealthy. 

Anyway, it all lead to a broadening rising share market and rising gold prices, and a much lower dollar, at least for now.

I hope this all leads to a reshoring of offshore production to North America and Mexico. 

I believe thats what they the policy makers wish for.

I hope this boosts my small cap portfolio and I think it will.

If you have an FX account with leverage and you were positioned the right way you made a lot of money today.

.uch of my small caps were up 5% or more even the shares in the UK 

Its a beautiful day here in Alamogordo. 

I like walking in the desert near the market close of the day, which here is after 2pm.

Today I left a little early to get out before its to hot.

Hearing the nature in the desert is nice here. Seeing the mountains are nice too.

The Airforce Base is near here so I can always here the planes flying over head and reminds me we are still at war with Iran, and by proxie Russia and China. 

Anyhow thats it for now, thanks for reading. 

Thoughts of the day, Alamogordo, NM

Its the end of the day for trading and investing and share markets were down in the US even gold and I believe the USD rallied 

Anyway Im at the library in Alamogordo, NM and enjoying the Aircon as they say in the Philippines. 

Im just thinking about all the videos I have been watching about the decline of the West, mostly North America the UK and Europe and thinking about that.

It seems to me with AI and Nano technology the economy is readjusting to the new economy and there will be more unemployment in traditional employment and market participants are starting to realize that and we are seeing gold react to that and share markets too.

As always I think governments will continue to reinflate and borrow and spend intell that cant.

I continue to think we will see more self employment and a continuing loss of knowledge in the old economy which could be bad.

I keep seeing people complain about crime and the lack of law enforcement doing anything about it, same with legal and illegal migration. 

I think the illegal migration from the third world will continue. With social media advertising the benefits of welfare and crime not being enforced people will rush in.

It seems western people arent (full) as Asians like to say.

I believe at some point North America will reassert itself and enforce law, but if they dont the western way of life is over.

I cant predict what voters/citizens will do bit still think there is hope, if im wrong owning gold coins will come in handy but wont really save the day but will buy you time.

I still believe that it may become harder to travel and legally migrate for western people.

I still think we will have a trade war with our allies and enemies. 

I still think in the short term inflation can stay high.

I still think the world in ten years will be unrecognizable. 

I prefer to be optimistic because im North American so will continue to invest and build assets if im able too. I hope Europeans can to.

Anyhow thats my thought of the day.

Share markets continue to rally despite world problems

Share markets continue to rally and some are at all time highs or close to it.

The Korean share market has stopped going down and maybe back in a rally.

Japan was down 2% last night. 

So despite Trump tweets the world hasnt plunged into a recession yet.

I continue to see negative articles in AI and job losses related to these job losses. We haven't seen a plunge in share markets yet, but may see it in the future.

I think we have a reflation going on longer term but may see inflation come down short term but only time will tell.

If we have interest rates around the world stay higher for longer and if the Fed holds rates steady or cuts them, that could lead to a much weaker dollar. Most people dont seem to have that on their radar.

I would expect stronger currencies against the US Dollar and higher gold prices. 

Im not sure we will see lower share prices but think it maybe possible in the future. 

Right now im guessing commodity prices will remain high including agriculture prices and anything related to oil and gas.

Like refined products. 

We are already seeing a backlash to foreign tourists in Thailand and a few other places as prices rise for basic stuff and resentment against foreigners rise, like ive seen in Thailand. 

It woulnt surprise me to see less tourism in many countries as prices remain a little high and as WW3 appears to be heating up.

Related to this many people will be limited to what countries welcome them in for tourism and retirement visas ect.

I saw a video last night that suggests border towns in Thailand may ask you to prove you have enough money to pay for your stay.

It was like this in the eighties, which most young people dont know. Its why people lost their travelers checks and got new ones to prove to border guards they could afford their stay.

Does anyone even remember travelers checks?

Anyhow this rising inflation and higher interest rates reminds me of the eighties and ninties.

The economy will have to readjust to all these tariffs and new and rising taxes.

We may start to see a new underground economy despite most people lack of physical cash, im guessing US Dollar coins the ones that maybe private will become the new cash.

Traditional employment maybe cresting now and new cottage industry maybe rising, especially with Nano technology and AI technology. 

We live in interesting times as the Chinese say.

Thanks for reading.

The loss of liberty in my lifetime.

The loss of liberty in my lifetime has been tremendous. 

Im 56, a US citizen and when I was a kid in the 80s you could open an offshore account in the Caribbean or Channel Islands (Sark) Isle of Man, Switzerland, Austria just to name a few place with a photo copy of your passport and certified almost anywhere and a thousand bucks to ten thousand dollars and have a foreign currency account and buy gold coins to be stored at the bank in an envelope. 

It was even possible to open the account with a few hundred bucks equivalent in local currency.

I remember you could buy Austrian shillings bonds for I think a few thousand bucks, and a few gold coins for under a thousand bucks, gold back then was three hundred and changs in the ninties I believe. 

Now its a different story, banks in Europe dont want North Americans as clients, unless you deposit 250,000 minimum usually they want 1 million USD and up. The cost of compliance at banks for US clients just isnt worth the hassle anymore.

Anyhow North Americans cant easily diversify their assets overseas very easily anymore. 

It makes it impossible to hide assets from creditors or Uncle Sam for lower income North Americans. Gold coins held in your own possession is about it or held oversees is about it.

The loss of liberty is tremendous. I believe thats why more middle class North Americans are migrating overseas to Asia and Latin America and even places in Russia to escape the heavy hand of US government and its policies that may not be good for Americans, like rising inflation and cost of living. 

I sometimes wonder if this is why we see more men in the US dropping out of the workforce and living homeless on the streets.

I still remember when you could get a cash paying job, thats mostly impossible unless your an illegal immigrant.

It seems if your North American and want liberty you need to migrate overseas or live in one of the US territorys, like Saipan. 

Much of US law doesn't get enforcement in US territorys like Saipan, so I can see why a few North Americans are choosing that place. I sometimes wonder if its possible to hide assets their, I doubt it.

I wonder if US creditors can reach out and touch you their, it would be interesting to find out. For the record I have no creditors. 

I cant really add much more but the loss of liberty in North America has really changed the culture in a bad way and if we are to keep our prosperity we will need to change the culture or more young people will leave, like the older generations have and taking their wisdom and knowledge. 

As this wisdom leaves it cant really come back and thats the sad thing. 

What Americans built up over hundred of years could be gone.

Thanks for reading. 

Another beautiful day in Alamogordo, NM

I got up this morning at about 7am, had a pretty goid rest last night and decided to shower and go to Micky Ds for a small coffee, which in August 2026 costs 1,09 which isnt to bad, at Starbucks it would be over 3 bucks now for a small coffee. 

I am surprised more people arent inside, but I guess people dont get up eary.

In Xela, Guatemala at 6am there would be people inside early, Guatemalans can get up early, unlike in Mexico where I think they open at 9am or so.

Anyhow I am just thinking about the past and how I lived in Guatemala and Mexico. 

Lately I been watching videos on YouTube on all the homeless people I seem to see on YouTube who have channels documenting there homeless journey in life.

Its interesting to see how many people get Adsense revenue from there YouTube channel and are able to fund their life style despite being homeless. 

The second thing I notice on YouTube is Simplify asset management and the chap who runs FOXY thats the symbol for the ETF that invests in foreign currency and gets yield or "carry" from their currency trades.

Many people dont seem to realize you can get a yield or carry from investing in foreign currency, which I guess surprises me.

When I was a kid and involved in the gold bug movement, there was a segment of people who invested offshore, put there money in banks offshore and invested in foreign currency and got a spread or yield on their deposit. 

Yiska bank did that in Denmark, I have spelled the name of the bank right, I cant remember the name of that bank but they were popular for FX trades that got yields or carry and it was a popular bank for North Americans.

I remember some years their trades would get a 30 to 50% move all in return. 

Anyhow Simply now has an ETF FOXY that does essentially similiar type trades and all you have to invest is one share and the carry is more than 8% and many investors seem to not trust the way the money gets the yield, which surprises me.

Anyhow its nice seeing Simplify asset management able to explain the benefits of the ETF on various influencers YouTube channels. What a world we live in now.

You can be down in your luck homeless, have a YouTube channel and various sales funnels to get money, invest in FOXY and get a monthly check or direct deposit in your bank from FOXY and a check from Adsense and be on your business all while homeless, times have changed. 

Of course I suggest you get your direct deposits while you sit in your crib in Northern Mexico, or somewhere in Cambodia, or better yet Manila where things are a bit less costly than the US and enjoy your gains their.

Of course the worlds a big place, you could ride the trains in Eastern Europe or Russia and do similiar but your ATM card doesnt work as well in Russia so youll need a deposit account in Georgia, the country to do this now.

Anyhow just a few thoughts while I sip my coffee at Micky Ds. 

Thanks for reading. 

Another nice day in Alamogordo, NM

Its another nice day in Alamogordo, NM and not as hot as its been the last few weeks.

I actually feel better now that I have been able to get medical care and medication.

I might be able to go back to work, although in Alamogordo not many are highering now.

If I'm lucky, I might be able to get all or mostly all my bills paid from June 18th when I was hurt on the job and rushed to the hospital for  five day stay. 

Workmans comp woulnt pay or cover it, I can sue if I want but if the government pays through medicaid ill let it go.

Medical bills in the US are getting outrageous and many cant pay or refuse to pay and its getting harder for hospitals to get the courts to make people pay.

I think as the US empire winds down more states in the US will make it more difficult for medical creditors or and creditors to take money out of your bank or sieze your assets including ERISA assets, houses ect.....I see Texas and Florida and Wyoming are leading to states to redide where creditors have a tough time seizing income or assets 

I see Alaska is not falling behind either.

I believe in the future more states will have more rights than others and that will dri e migration to those places.

I believe the Northern Marianas Islands will fall into that category too.

As more North Americans learn about the tax benefits of Saipan it will lead a small segment of people to relocate their.

Whats nice about the Northern Mariananas islands is that most Americans dont even know where they are or have even heard of them.

I like Saipan the best but it may not be for everyone.

Thanks for reading. 

I miss Alaska.

I notice when I get up in the morning, I still have images of Seward, Alaska in my head.

I worked in Seward for about six months last year and when I wasn't working, id hike in the mountains and pass by streams full of salmon. It was nice seeing the ocean come up against the mountains. 

Other times I would ride the bike into town and park it, lock it up and get a coffee at the bakery, which was owned I believe by a Thai lady. If I remember right she had Thai women work their and a few Filipinas.

They had good coffee and bakery items. The memory is nice.

After id get the coffee id walk to the waterfront and watch all the boats,and the big tourist ships come in.

It was nice walking around the waterfront and seeing all the tourists from around the world walking around same as me looking at the sights.

They had a sea museum if I remember right, or aquarium. 

The cool thing was the campsites which were on the waterfront where you could camp in a tent ot camper and start a fire and cook oustside and visit with other people.

Anyhow the memories of that experience was nice. 

The weather wasnt bad either, reminded me of Seattle, Washington. 

As I recall there was even a few homeless people their at least in the summer.

In the town and countryside there were nice houses, campsites ect...a few bars and cafes to eat at too.

In the country was where Pacific Seafood was at, at least their old location was there and the bunkhouse was more in the sticks.

Although when I left last year they were transferring everything to a new location. 

As Im not their anymore they chose not to invite me, I still miss the work despite all the issues their.

Share markets. 

Last week share prices were up same with gold.

Many emerging markets corrected and were up on Friday, I believe on Monday the markets will rally and gold will continue up.

Dividend shares, and ETFs continue to go up, same with infrastructure ETFs ect, even the overseas infrastructure projects continue to rally.

I think inflation will continue to be stubborn and stay a little elevated but in time the Fed will lower rates.

Im not sure I like bonds now except to short the long end of the curve.

There may come a time to invest in bonds long term just not now.

Some bond proxies like reit maybe ok but Utes not now.

Infrastructure projects probably are my favorite income play now then some Reits especially the ones overseas. 

Thats it for now.

Thanks for reading.

The stock market rally expands.

The share market rally in the US continues to expand.  The rally in emerging markets continues to rally.

Same with dividend shares, and value shares. 

Anyhow i was up this morning and it was nice to see share prices up.

E.B Tucker. 

I read the latest issue of E.B. Tucker s news letter. 

I get the free version, and read the latest issue.

As usual it was good, as he says most people would be better of spending there extra money on living a good life instead of listening to other people online and speculating in stock tips they dont really understand. 

He even talked about a manufacturer of tennis racquets thats publicly traded in I believe Japan. 

There are interesting opportunities like that now in Japan that no one buys or owns that quietly pay out dividends and slowly double over time.

Anyway it was nice reading his letter, its rare to read stuff thats not AI written that makes any sense nowdays. 

Its also rare to read stuff that suggests you live a good life and stop chasing money. 

He even talks about health sometimes, not many people really care about that either and family too.

Our culture has changed over the years.

Thanks for reading. 

The reflation continues.

The reflation continues. Well the inflation numbers came out this morning and inflation was better than expected and we are getting a stock market rally.

I believe inflation will stay higher than most people believe and in a month or two inflation numbers will start trending up, possibly after the Fed lowers interest rates.

With lower inflation expectations, id guess this will give the Fed permission to lower rates, and take pressure off funding the deficit at these high rates.

The corporations would like lower rates to fund there expansions.

I think inflation will still be a problem for the K shaped economy, especially if you are in the bottom K where resentment is going up and by quite a bit.

At least for now shares are up and you can add tech ETFs to your Reits, your insurance ETFs, and small cap dividend ETFs, and your larger cap ones too.

The economy is expanding despite this recent slowdown at least in North America.

Not much to add, have fewer shorts and more longs.

I forgot to mention, at least for now if the Fed lowers interest rates, that may put pressure on the US Dollar, so gold, silver, etherium, foreign currency may rally from here for awhile. Gold may go up and stay up no matter what happens. 

The trust in US Treasurys are in decline around the world and many people continue to buy and own gold coins.

If we get a deflation, I expect gold to trend down but many will not sell for fear of a world wide reflation.

Thanks for reading. 

Good day in markets.

It was a good day in markets today. They were mostly down, I had a few shorts and longs that worked well.

I was up 10 or so basis points by the end of the close.

^

I think tomorrow maybe a rally, despite the ongoing wars and inflation issues. 

It seems we are in new ti070/mes and markets are readjusting to these issues. 

I continue to believe inflation will tick down but long term will remain high.

I think the world readjusting to higher inflation and wars and slower growth will lead to higher commoditys and probably higher gold prices. 

We live in interesting times.

Thanks for reading. 

Reirecheap.asia/ Escape to Thailand (JC/Nat) Retire the channel?

JC and Nat made there latest update video on there channel EscapetoThailand.com, I believe is there channel.

They may stop content on there channel because of lack of interest. 

There is maybe a fifty persent chance the keep the channel. 

JC said the channel may not create enough income to pay the bills associated with the channel. 

I have always believed they have one of the best channels on living in Thailand, and Asia in general. 

More than ten years ago I believe I started watching Retire Cheap Asia while I was still working for Electrolux in St. Cloud Minnesota.

I believe JC has commented on the decline of information on Thailand subjects and he has commented on the negative comments he gets from other channels he has.

He has also said its harder to collect money from PayPal and send it to Thailand. 

I believe thats why many channels not related to travel are shutting down. 

Payment processing is getting more difficult to do if you live outside of North America and complying with new and growing regulations in Thailand and other countries makes it more difficult and may not be worth people's time if they cant get compisated.

I believe this is sought by governments to keep people from fleeing unpopular situations and living in other countries. I mean governments dont like the tax cows leaving, like inthe UK and Europe. 

Anyways im sad to hear this news but JC hasnt decided to shut the channel down. 

But he has multiple online and offline business and I believe income from Social Security so may not want more business hassles with little compensation. 

I believe we will continue to see these trends. AI has really created opportunities and bad outcomes for many people and the AI trend is just starting. 

Thanks for reading. 

More consensus intrest rates will go down.

There appears to be more consensus that interest rates in the US will go down. As more data comes in that inflation maybe coming down interest rates will probably be lowered.

I would guess that will lead to a lower dollar, at least for awhile. 

Which will probably lead to higher gold prices, and maybe higher silver prices.

Etherium has started trending up, and Solana maybe getting ready to start trending, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a rally there at least for awhile. 

There seems to be a growing consensus that the wars will continue despite not being popular with the public, so long term id guess inflation will be higher despite the current down tick in prices 

I continue to believe AI technology will roll on creating a two tiered economy that many will benefit from and many will be left behind.

So we may get a short term rally in bonds long term we may continue to see a bear market. 

Thats it for now.

Joe Blogs latest video, Seattles Pike Place market

I just saw Joe Blogs latest video in Seattle, Wa, he just came down from Vancouver, Canada I believe and made a video of Pikes Place Market and the waterfront in Seattle. 

If you dont know Joe Blogs is a British chap who makes videos on current events in Russia, China ect and investments I think.

He is on holiday I believe and chose to visit the Pacific Northwest. 

Its been nice seeing his videos of Canada in Vancouver and in Seattle where I grew up. The scenery in his video is beautiful, its shows Seattle how I remember it, lots of coffee houses, restaurants for seafood, the Pikes Place Market where you can buy all kinds of junk then stop off at Starbucks for a coffee, I did that in the late 80s. Of course things have changed. 

I saw in his video the place where you store you junk, the storage place, I cant remember the name.

I Joe Blogs video it shows all the people walking around and shows how Seattle and Vancouver are pretty Asian now.

I remember how Seattle was changing as a kid, and Vancouver,Canada was almost 50% Asian or Chinese, I cant remember. 

Theres a lot of Vietnamese their now too.

My co worker in Alaska was Vietnamese and from Seattle. 

Anyhow Joes video was nice to see and the previous ones he made too.

Anyhow you can search for Joe Blogs channel on YouTube. 

Thanks for reading. 

Thought of the day. "Protecting the Pile"@hedgeeye

I just got done listening to the latest @hedgeeye podcast, I watched it on YouTube. 

It had all the HAM asset managers on it, even David Salem. 

They talked about "Recourse Wars" concerning national recources in Africa, in this case copper and colbalt were mentioned. 

They also talked about the current wars we are in with Russia and Iran and how we are not treating our allies well.

Which led to talk on slowly rising oil prices and that might lead to oil shares rising and the people who supply them, ticker OIH.

It was an interesting conversation on these topics plus the over investment in AI tech and the consequences from it.

One of the HAM portfolio managers was coming in from Kenya, I believe. 

Its nice that hedge eye has a wide diverse set of managers managing your money if you choose that direction. 

I believe our politicians and policy makers are making bad decisions on our behalf and may lead to a weaker dollar and rising gold prices. Even with a strong dollar I think we may see higher gold prices.

Thanks for reading. 

Another mixed day in the markets.

The day in the markets isnt over yet. When the market opened many of my shorts were down and in quite a bit of profit, so I covered quite a bit, and some were up so added to my shorts.

Many dividend ETFs were down a little so I added their.

Took profit on quite a few long trades.

I think the economy will expand a little but still expect a slow down in many tech shares and layoffs from many of those companies. 

I still expect interest rates to go up a little, and similiar with gold.

Im not sure if the gold rally will last, only time will tell.

As far as the Iran war, im not sure about that either. I expect the US will walk away from it.

The war in Russia/Ukraine, Im not sure about that either. I am guessing the US will support them in words but im not sure we even have the missiles to give them.

Im not sure about Europe, it seems the young doesn't support the EUs stance on the war either.

It seems like we may have a decade of rising inflation, sinking share prices and similiar with bonds.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

Clean up day.

I sold a lot of my low performers (Shares)

Its painful to admit mistakes, and costly too. Not to mention the margin costs.

Anyways I brought my margin down quite a bit.

Time will tell if this was the right decision. I got caught not stopping out of some shorts. 

I also stopped out of other shorts not working. 

I dont like the margin costs when I get down to 80% I prefer to stay at 90% or higher.

Anyhow I expect the rally to continue and even the wars so not sure how this will work out accept that inflation will stay higher than many expect, and interest could go up soon before they come down. 

I expect gold to start performing well, probably oil shares too.

I expect reits to slowly climb higher, same with dividend paying shares, like SCHD, SCHY, and their competitors like HDV ect.

Emerging market shares are taking off too.

Thanks for reading. 

Earning report. PRGO

Its earnings season and Perrigo released earnings today and shares shot up 24%, I believe they closed 23%higher today.

They are a pharmaceutical company in Ireland and sell over the counter products in emerging markets and including the USA. 

They have bany formula facilities in the US I believe and are now past there troubles with them.

Anyhow I own a few shares and its nice to see the shares are up and the share market rally is broadening. 

Anyhow thanks for reading. 

The Taco Trade continues.

The Taco trade continues. 

Yesterday (Sunday night) Futures prices were up for most share markets. 

Most foreign currencys were down against the US Dollar, except the Yen.

I believe this is the beginning of a weak dollar policy by the US government, policy makers.

This will lead to rising share markets in the developing markets, gold markets ect.

I still think oil shares will rally. Same with reits, infrastructure shares ect.

We may see a rally in tech shares, time will tell.

I continue to believe value shares go up. Same with dividend shares.

Im starting to get bullish on gold bullion too.

If our policy is to devalue the Dollar and inflate the currency to pay for war and the welfare state, then owning gold coins held in your possession will be wise.

These policies will enrich the elites and impoverishe the lower income people but it appears thats what people will vote for and could end badly for most people. 

Thats it for now thanks for reading.