Monday, November 9, 2026

We seem to be entering a quad 4 environment.

We seem to be in a quad4 environment. 

That's when shares crash, bonds tend to rise and there bond proxies.

Last week we saw shares crash quite a bit including teck shares, Korean shares, chip shares ect.

I had a few shorts on that kept my overall drawdown to 1% while my 401K was down 2% or more, its a target date fund and not much can be done to manage that risk, it doesn't even have a money market cash fund to hide in, as far as I understand it.

Quad 4 come from Hedgeye the asset management firm and information firm.

They have many services that are affordable to use to help you manage risk, especially short sales.

Anyway according to them we maybe in a disinflation environment for a few quarters maybe longer and owning bonds and bond proxies like Utes, Consumer Staples, Reits, ect maybe better than Chip shares, and AI shares, ect.

So far the short sales have worked out well, as had USD and getting out of commodities and gold.

Soon or perhaps six months or maybe longer we will be in an reinflation mode.

I dont know.

I think things will get interesting. The current elections in the US has shown we maybe in the Fourth Turning. I think we are, as well as WW3.

We live in interesting times.

I think about all this and where I might live and retire too.

Its getting more expensive to live in the US and many places now.

Thats it for now. Thanks for reading. 

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