"Flows" More war, and possibly WW3

Everyones expecting a bear market in shares, at least in the US. If the flows of the pension funds in the US slow down that could be the start of a panic/bear market in shares.

Then we have WW3 with Iran and Russia, China with Ukraine and Europe. 

I keep seeing Mike Green interviews where he describes a senario where we have another Great Depession with a decade or more of lower share prices. 

His typical solution to avoid that kind of drawdown is to be diversified in bonds which few investors find acceptable. 

If we have rising inflation now few investors will want to buy bonds because in the last few years bond investors have got their heads handed to them.

I can see why an investor would buy bonds but dont think many will, it makes investing in managed futures ETFs more acceptable,  they can buy the bonds or short them and manage that risk.

I do agree with Mike Green on the dangers of market place risk and how few investors want to deal with these things even though what he says makes sense.

Anyway listening to Mr. Green brings my enthusiasm for shares down a bit.

Im at least invested in shares around the world including bond proxies like Reits, I like the Reits in Asia, Hong Kong and Japan, even Malaysia. 

Of course I like Australia and Europe,  Canada not as much.

At least I have shares in those markets and bond proxies there like infrastructure ect.

EB Tucker. 

Then there is EB Tucker, he says ride the trend, AKA trend following, which I agree with and in his latest letter says we worry to much about wars and bear markets and hes right. Sometimes if we do as he suggests and just but a few gold coins and a few mobile home shacks in the country and just put the rest in shares we would be better off.

He likes things in Japan and US out of favour stuff and things like computer security ect.

In general I like his outlook on things. He suggests just living in the moment doing what you like and buying a few gold coins and spending time with family and friends doing what you like, he likes tennis. 

I like hiking in the mountains and desert. I think Mr. Tucker is right.

Hugh Hendry. 

Then theres Hugh Hendry. He like long term trends.

The share market in Japan was down 32 years I think. In the last year its up 50% or more.

I think hes still pretty bullish on Japan shares. I believe he thinks they could rally another 300% if not more. Then yen could go to 200 or higher against the US Dollar. 

I think he maybe right. I think AI will help the share market in Japan and people will keep bidding up the shares their.

He gets a lot of hell for expressing that view, and others because people want perfect timing. 

What I like about EB Tucker and Mr.Hendry is they like following the long term trend and just living a good life.

Mr. Hendry has a nice crib in St. Barts and builds many cribs their for successful people.

I think hes right, as the economy decentralizes successful people will move to safe places where they can live well. 

For people like me that means Philippines or Northern Mariana Islands. 

Taxes there arent much and people leave you alone. 

Thats it for now.

Thanks for reading.