Faith in Twitter man (Mr. Trump) is fading fast.

 

Faith in President Trump is fading fast. At least in the markets today they are in the toilet. 

Mr. Trumps Tweets or X as its called now aren't inspiring confidence. 

He has been tweeting the war in Iran is over and things will go back to normal. 

Well the Nasdaq was down more than 4% today, 6/5/26. S&P 500 was down 2 and a half persent, Russell almost 3 and a half persent and no one cares about the Dow anymore.

Many Tech shares and gold mining shares were down 20% in one trading day.

It appears markets dont believe much of what Mr Trump says much less tweets. Im not sure this is the beginning of a crisis or bear market only time will tell.

What is interesting is more market professionals are believing what many experts are saying and they are now verifying whats being said to what is actually happening and it starting to be seen in market action.

The jobs numbers came out to I believe and the economy is humming along just fine and interest rates will be higher for longer and the dollar took off and gold sold off3 and a third persent. 

A dollar crisis could be brewing I dont know but it wouldn't surprise me.

The people who rule want a strong doller and want more dollar transactions done through stable coins and the US stable coins could be used as a weapon and it would be used as a way to buy US Treasury s to help fund the growing deficit. 

Anyways I dont know how this will play out but think the bull market in assets will continue and we are not yet into a bear market but could be soon.

I still think the Iran war will continue at least for now, only time will tell if assets rally back.

Either way I expect a crisis eventually and then the US will inflate the US money supply more than even now and then we will see how this all ends.

Happy Weekend.  Good Luck.

Markets are still plunging but we maybe turning a corner.

 

I got my latest issue of Lyn Aldons newsletter, the free version and it was pretty interesting. 

It compared the current times, bull market in Technology and Chips and Space to the 1920s bull market. 

We had quite a bull market in the 1920s in a time of little regulation and tax in most  of the world including Europe. 

One of her observations was back then it was difficult to get information and took days to werks for panic to spread even the banking crisis s in Europe took time to spread.

What really impressed me is how much trust there was back then despite the introduction of income tax in the US 1912 I believe and the introduction of the Fed, again 1912.

You could still withdraw gold and silver coins back then in most of the world including Africa, Asia and North America to Europe. 

Of course not now, now its all fiat, except maybe in China. In China you can still get fiat but few people accept it, its all QR codes and apps their for the most part. Although you can still buy gold and USD 100 bills clean and crisp bills no less. 

Lyn talked about the current inflation and wars and more importantly information. You cant really get accurate information online anymore. 

With AI created videos and bots posting fake videos and pictures its hard to detect the truth. Plus they can spoof real people like you or me and make videos of us committing crimes, inflaming people to violence ect.

They can even erase your identity and sieze you bank and brokerage account, like what happened at Fidelity where a woman coulnt sign in to her account and when she called customer service and was helped by a bot or AI they didnt acknowledge her or her account. 

Luckily she called a human and had saved her online statement s to her laptop and proved she had an account there and got things resolved and her money back.

As I understand a computer clich erased her account accidentally or on purpose I dont know but people will learn this can be done and gotten away with in some cases and some countries. 

Owning a few gold coins in your wallet may come in handy one day.

Anyway Lyn had a good letter on how we live in interesting times and how we earn income is changing fast, AI will change everything and probably faster than I think.

What's the answer to all this?

I believe E.B. Tucker is right, one answer is to be in the moment and enjoy life. Some of the most enjoyable things are cheap to free if you live in the Western World.

I think in a low trust society it will be more important to live in smaller cities or towns where you can build up trust in those societies so when things go wrong you can band together and survive the crisis easier. Much like you see in Russia or other similar places.

I think living in smaller states in North America will be better and the smaller towns will do better but it will be similar in places like Saipan, or the Philippines or even Singapore even Sark comes to mind.

I think as things decentralize people will move to rural areas and live in places where government rules and regulations will not really be enforced even taxes to some extent. 

It will be safer in those areas to, the downside is big city life and health care will be less.

As it becomes easier to earn and spend income and have things shipped by drones we will see people live where they are treated best so people will migrate to these places.

It will be difficult to stop the migration and the migration of capital just look at China. 

Of course governments will have currency controls and will try to stop this but they cant stop migration from Africa to Europe or migration from Central America to North America. 

Only time will tell. You already see people leaving the West for Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. 

I think these trends will continue and thats where I will invest in.

Happy Hunting. 

Gold in a low trust society.

 

There is a chart making the rounds of social media (X) showing how more governments around the world, East and West are selling USD Treasurys and replacing them with gold bullion bars.

The speculation is that the trust in US Treasury bonds, securities is fading fast and our allies and enemies are replacing them with gold bullion bars.

I believe there is a new understanding in market participants and investors that most governments will meet there responsibilitys by printing money and defaulting through currency debasement (inflation) or ouright default.

Our allies and enemies probably dont trust the US policy makers, government decision makers not to sieze their US assets domiciled in the US either.

I believe more North Americans also realize taxes on consumers maynot go up to meet government promices, like Social Security, Medicare, and other promises.

They also realize politicians will not be elected based on cutting these programs back, so now I realize the sacred cows argument. 

It seems most voters vote to steal and when they see no consequences for this they want it more before the whole thing callapses.

I would have thought there would have been an collapse in 2008 but there wasn't.

Thats why I believe so many people who have money and want to preserve there wealth and status keep buying gold.

Im not saying gold will go to 10K or 20K soon, I dont believe that but do think eith all these governments buying gold, that why there really hasnt been more of a sell off in gold prices and that there may not be.

I do believe even if gold doesnt go up much more people will buy it to use as collateral for low cost loans or as a way to store wealth even if it doesn't go up much, although it might go up a lot.

Im more inclined to think silver goes under 60 bucks an ounce and possibly 50 and that's where new buying comes in. It maybe the better speculation in the long run but I dont know. 

I think as trust in government promises goes down you may see more investment in time and money go into starting businesses and in commoditys for all this investment into teck and AI.

The traditional way of earning money will change over time and so will investments, with more people converting capital into personal online investments and offline businesses in commoditys and other things.

Anyway thanks for reading, good luck to all.

Tectonic Traveler/ YouTube Influencer/Guru

 

Tectonic traveler is one of my favorite YouTube influencer, guru channel. 

Go here for his channel https://youtu.be/p4gNnmWJxlM?si=LBW4Ho6rgUV8CnfK 

Anyway, he has one of the better channels that gives you clues on where the world is going.

This channel may not be for everyone. 

He rides his bike all over the west coast mainly the northwest and southwest, including the high Sierras in California. 

He doesnt have a home address or apartment address which seems to annoy people, he sleeps in his tent at campsites or wild camping, sometimes renting hotels or airbnb.com  

He does similar in Colombia and I think a few other countries south of the border.

Hes not retirement age yet, and earns income online from Afsense and book sales, and a few online jobs.

I understand he earns enough to go on bike adventures both inside the US and outside the US.

Hes a good example of more people dropping out of society and living the lives they want or have dreamed of but were scared of society judging them.

Hes one of many men and women who have figured out how to earn money offline and online, live frugally and save to live the way they want without a conventional job. Not to mention telling people who dont approve to go pound sand.

I see more young men and women doing this.

This is probably why the labour participation rate among men and women are going down and with that collected taxes and the earnings companies whish to estract from consumers. 

I dont know what to make of this trend but think its here to stay, especially if AI good and bad takes over.

Living overseas or wild camping will be more common as Americans cant afford escalating rents. Even the high cost of living will decline with current trends in force. 

This will allow more alternative ways to live within North America and overseas, especially in Asia and Latin America, probably Europe too, but there the trends seem to be more entrenched. 

Anyhow he is, Tectonic is a good example how society is advancing despite perceived setbacks we now see.

We will also see alot of YouTube influencers getting banned and demonitized as the current AI slop is discouraged. 

Which could make the world better, or it may not and we will see the world devide into the haves and have-nots which at least in the West is all voluntary. 

Im not sure we wi get the dystopian world like many assume. Or we get what we wish for and the world devide s where some get what they want and others may not through there own choices. 

Thanks for reading.

AI, and how to prepare for it.

 

I listen to a lot of AI content and how it will change the world, both good and bad 

There is still a lot of disagreement on if its good or bad and most of it is basically doom porn to use the slang term of modern day.

Im more in the middle believing it really will create a lot of wealth and prosperity for most people who live through it and survive. 

I believe we consumers and voters, citizens cant really stop it,  no matter if we are in China/Russia or Europe or even North America. 

I believe the powers that be will do this by hook or crook legally even if they need to bribe the voters no matter the cost.

At least us in the West can invest in it or it's proxies and probably do ok.

I just heard the latest money supply numbers and they are up mid single digits across all time frames, about 8% in the US. So with that and other incentives I see tech and AI screaming higher, or at least inching higher with some volatility and pull backs.

Its possible the AI and technology companies will pull away from the traditional companies and really out perform everything else, leaving more unemployment and other dislocations in our old economy but only time will tell.

Basically imjust guessing like everyone else how to prepare for it.

Already im experiencing unemployment like many people.

I see market commentators saying to expect more white collar layoffs. 

If your an older American it doesn't leave you much accept to become a gig worker and become a creater in this new economy, which is the direction im going.

As far as investments, I still believe you can own tech broadly, but event here there will be winners and losers. 

I still think you should have 5% to 7% in gold coins or have the coins stored overseas.

I still think business development companies will do ok, the publicly traded ones that pay growing dividends.

I think infrastructure ETFs will do ok and at least for now grow and pay there dividends out and will profit from there debt structures. 

I believe having more savings in USD will be worthwhile and gold holdings as saving will do well as well as REITS in the US and the world includes Japan, Europe and Canada as well as Australia. 

I believe these investments will be a bridge that pays our retirement and takes us into the new world whatever that is.

As of now I think there will be higher corporate tax in North America. 

Wealth taxes in Europe and rising income/sales tax. I see Europe in decline and more migration out to the new world.

I see a potential enslavement of mankind in many parts of the world, but like in the past many will escape it by bribery and leaving those jurisdictions to the better ones.

It will be hard to enslave and tax people with our new technology but many countries are shutting down social media and the internet like China and Russia is and even the EU and USA but so far haven't really succeeded. Only time will tell how that goes.

Maybe Belarus will be the last man standing as far as an interesting place to bug out too, or maybe Mexico on the Baja.

Time will tell how it pans out but as of now there is to much pessimism and as an contrarian ill bet the other way.

Good Luck,  Happy Hunting. 

More and more loneliness in North America.

 As Im sure most readers know, there is more and more loneliness in North America and Europe even in the developed parts of Asia like Singapore. 

I think its now a consensus view that what people call screen time/phone time is changing our neurology and causing us to be alone on our screens, at work, at home and even in the night life when we are relaxing or on dates, or having dinner with friends.

I notice more people talking about this on social media and getting to the point of leaving social media or hiring people to run there social media so as not to rewire there brains in negative ways.

I think we are becoming atomized as people which separates us from family, friends, neighbors our communities too.

I believe corporate America and government wants this for banal reasons like selling more crap, or more sinister reasons like control us politically.

Id say corporations and governments want to farm us for monitory reasons to get as much loot out of us before we rebel or drop out of society. 

Speaking of dropping out, you are seeing more wealthy people and middle income people, "retiring" from the rat race and living off of dividend income, covered call income and capital gains.

I have seen more videos of Singapore women and Japanese women make videos of themselves doing that in the Philippines or Cambodia instead of continuing there careers. 

I find that interesting.

For decades now ive come across Aussies living on 300 to 500 Aussie dollars a month in the province in the Philippines and now they make videos about it. 

One gentleman I knew started a garden and sold vegetables and plans to local restaurants, he hired a few workers and made more than a grand, lived frugally then saved and got on quite well. That was years ago though. Probably hes now on pension. 

Another example is all the videos of young and older people showing videos of apartments in Cambodia, Thailand for 50 bucks to 150 and up and the swimming pools that go with then.

In Manila in the less famous areas you can get condos for 300 to 400 and spend 1k or less for food utilities ect, if your single and be around people you like and beat loneliness.

My point is the loneliness epidemic is so bad and the cost of living so high which has lead to people living in cars, vans ect. And still spending 1k a month.

As people learn about the low cost of living in Asia, Latin America and other places people will abandon ship.

Which means governments will lose tax which means governments will have to readjust to all this hopefully in good ways and not exchange controls and other tricks to keep the tax cows in.

Now that there are so many ways to consult online and so many countries to live in it will be difficult for governments to stop this.

I have noticed more countries are lowering there barriers to entry to get in. I mean the income requirements are either low to none and getting a legal residency will be easier to get.

Its also getting easier to get around these rules, if your flexible and or get in the right places.

Eastern Europe is one place and a place Im not familiar with. I have seen some videos on it and they seem to be getting Western European people to pull up stakes and leave, especially with the rising wealth tax and income tax and sales tax.

I dont blame them for leaving and going to Russia and the Eastern European countries. 

Then I see it in Thailand and Cambodia. Despite the problem s their people are going there more.

Same in Philippines. 

Thats it for now.

Slowly, then fast, bankruptcy

 

How I went bankrupt, not me but someone famous once said, slowly then fast 

Anyway, I think it was Mark Twain.

Anyway markets seem to be leaning towards getting expensive and overvalued by some analysts.  

Here in the US markets are trending up and have been for awhile. Same in Korea, almost 200% and in Japan too.

The war in Iran hasnt not knocked share markets down if any.

In Indonesia they have been trending down for awhile now, and in India too.

Europe maybe next. 

Treasury bonds in North America and the UK have been trending down and Europe too, I think. So inflation has drivin up interest rates quite a bit but hasnt knocked shore markets over much except Indonesia, Philippines and India. 

I do believe in time some markets and sectors could get knocked down 20%or 30%,  some maybe lower. 

This could cause a deflation scare, and if I had to guess most governments will lower interest rates quite a bit, especially if joblessness shoots up quite a bit.

This will suck if the world economy slows down and government pensions get cut or frozen and inflation is stubbornly high.

As always I dont know the future but will prefer to be open to anything. And a willingness to start an online business and put partial capital into trend following ETFs and or managed future ETFs. 

If gold pulls back I would add some gold, I assume with or without inflation uncertaintcy will go up and more people buy gold coins/bars.

I also assume with all this new technology more people will continue to work online and start online business to keep productive and prosperous and to pass on this knowledge to the younger generation.

Anyways it will be interesting to see how markets react to a peace deal in Iran if that happens. 

I think markets correct then the real damage from the war gets recognized and dealt with and then markets stabilize and then start back up.

Its my belief Governments want us speculating and gambling and paying tax on out gains to keep this rodeo going, thats why I lean to an inflationary ourcome.

Ive come to the conclusion market participants want this to, the average man doesnt want government to cut pensions and benefits so they prefer rising inflation and wages to deflation and thats why both parties vote for it, at least in North America. 

Rather than fight these trends I accept them and plan to start an online business and live wherever I want, probably Philippines, maybe Cambodia and never rule out Mexico. 

The cost of living is low, governments and people their leave you alone, not to mention taxes are low.

I think more people will do this in North America and Europe too.

Good Luck, Happy Hunting. 

Where is the world going?

 

I get asked about where the world is going as far as our economy and culture. 

As the culture declines people as where is this all going. 

If you study history and recent history you can see it gets pretty dark fast.

We have heard about the Epstein files and all the issues with that, and its pretty dark.

Recently I heard a podcast about something that I had forgotten. 

It was about Sarajevo. The war their happened I believe during the second Bill Clinton administration. 

Well now there is a documentary, where novels meet real life.

There are current criminal court cases in Italy I believe about this whole affair.

The documentary is called Sarajevo Safari.  You can google it and watch it, and its pretty dark. 

I remember reading this in the European press but mainly the British press.

What is alleged is wealthy men  I believe were brought in to "hunt" civilians. 

You paid a bounty to the Serbs, to kill children, infants and pretty women. 

It alleged the prettiest girls were hunted and killed for the most money, I heard 20k.

Its pretty depraved that wealthy people paid for these safaris. I suppose when you have that much power and money thats the only way you can get off.

Im not surprised it happened but am surprised its being prosecuted in Italy, thats my understanding. 

People as with women using only fans and how thats spreading to women all over the world, how much worse it can get.

My answer is the wealthy elites will pay to do these things legal or not, and soon it maybe legal and supported by most citizens and voters.

Its all the reason to enjoy life now and not to put off contentment. 

This is also happening in South Africa. Wealthy people like royal family members are being accused of, going to South Africa and going on South African hunts to hunt and kill poachers. 

I had not heard about that but would not be surprised if the rumors of Royal families in Europe doing that. It maybe the only way they can get there rocks off, or maybe they are socio paths. 

I mention all this because as the world gets wealthier and as corruption continues I can see a world where it decentralizes to this and in other areas its sugar and spice and everything nice.

With whats happening with technology in China, North Korea, Russia and now the US you will not even be aware this is even happening because the press is so controlled and propagandist. 

Thats why when people ask how to live I suggest, live well.

If you don't like where things are going retire to a atate or country you enjoy, live off your pensions, dividends, and capital gains.

If you dont have those start a consulting service done online or the phone and live somewhere affordable. 

Things are changing so fast you may not need as much savings as before, and if your curious about the world and like to learn it will be easier to start a business or consulting service and get paid to live anywhere. 

With USD stable coins, or BTC its easier than ever to send money wealth anywhere and pay your bills, especially Russia or the Philippines. 

Same with stable coins, exchange controls will not stop this just slow things down, just look at China.

Anyway good luck.

The Iran war continues, at least for now.

 

The war in Iran, seems to be continuing despite what President Trump says, or even oil futures contracts say.

The Holiday weekend is over, traders are back to their desks and oil futures traders seem to believe peace will bloom in the Middle East and most especially Iran.

I dont know. If I had to guess the war will continue until there is a crisis then someone will have to back down. 

If the Trump White House has to back down they will continue to lose legitimacy among voters and the citizens of the world and the US Empire will continue its perceived decline.

I already see people talking in the media, former intelligence people, talk of how China and Iran maybe gaing legitimately in the world and how that will hurt the interests of the US and our allies. 

The world is changing fast and I still woulnt bet against the US but can see how people will hedge there bets just to make sure they win in the long run.

I dont think Iran can really win at least with there people. More and more will immigrate, come what may.

You see that with North Americans, if they have wealth and skills they are going offshore and earning offshore and its not just for saving taxes.

More and more are leaving for safety reasons, mainly for there kids, and to make sure there kids grow up around people who have a more optimistic view of the future. 

You see the same thing in the UK, and now Germany, among other places too.

I believe eventually the war will be over and more countries will decide if they will aline with the US, China, the EU or Russia, only time will tell.

It would not surprise me if China takes the lead and the US aligns with China and Russia more and more and the EU continues its decline, but I have been wrong before.

I think we may get another opportunity to buy oil shares much cheaper than they are now, and if that happens I will take it. 

Something will get cheaper and then start to trend so get ready.

Good Luck and Happy Hunting. 

2033, THE Social Security cliff.

 

There has been more news articles and YouTube posts on the Social Security cliff thats coming in ten years or less,2033 is the projection year I see.

Thats when only 80% or less of Social Security benefits can be paid out of projected tax revenues. 

The idea is over time the population will decline or the working age population will decline and without immigration there will be fewer tax payors to pay tax for current and future benefits. 

Even if you had immigration it wouldn't really fix this problem because your just poaching workers from other countries and those countries lose workers and tax revenues. 

Having said that there is no incentive for politicians to cut benefits unless there is a crisis and so far there isnt a crisis.  Even Covid didnt appear to create a crisis voters would repond too.

So I would say benefits will be paid, lowered in small amounts until the crisis hits.

That might create a rising price level or inflation that governments wont know how to respond too, but they wont cut benefits until the crisis hits, that maybe a bond crisis, or funding crisis or it maybe a USD crisis Im not sure.

Looking at Japan for what may happen, so far its a Yen crisis just not yet.

The USDJPY rate is at 155 or so, I haven't looked recently. 

So far interest rates in Japan are still under 3% but are inching up, and so far no crisis. 

Interest rates in the US are getting close to 5% but still no crisis.

I dont think the US economy or world economy can sustain double digit interest rates like in the seventies and eighties. 

While I think Social Security will survive, what it pays out will be much less over time and the social contract will be changed, probably by the younger voters.

Even with AI raising the standard of living for most people we will not know till much latter if western countries can not be forced to cut these programs. 

We are starting to see the cracks in Europe so if I had to go by what I see there, there will be cuts and higher inflation and more of a break down in society. 

Japan looks to be different. There seems to be more social cohesion there so maybe there will be less of a breakdown and theres more of an understanding of technology and how it can be used for everyone s benefit too.

China might be another place to look for clues too.

In the US I expect more of a colonial comback, where people work for themselves into retirement and they will work with new technology like the Chinese do.

Im not as pessimistic as some so expect the market will readjust to this new reality with some bumps in the process but dont expect the dystopian nightmare many do.

I think it is possible for a dystopian nightmare but there will be opportunities for people to check out and live in countries where things will be less interesting as the Chinese like to say.

Thanks for reading. 

Markets are closed today,,listening to inflation/deflation debates.

 

Sense markets are closed today, except futures prices, I have been thinking more and more about the inflation/deflation debates, that have been going on in the market places of ideas lately. 

I fall somewhere in the middle, where I think we will have a deflation scare and bonds could go up quite a bit. So far I have been wrong but havent lost much because the credits I own haven't gone down much.

I have been shorting treasury securitys so have made money there, but thats about it.

Ultimately I believe we will see rising inflation to pay for the healthcare needs of retiring Americans and the same for pensions,  both private and public. 

Most pensions are underfunded in the US and most of the Western World. 

Governments will have to compete for saving and capital of the world driving up intrest rates and I believe inflation from these policies. 

Only time will tell.

It seems most market participants believe this will result in deflation or at least disinflation over time and thus inflation wont happen. 

I believe its possible this is an outcome but am starting to lean the other way where most Governments will inflate money supplies to pay for these programs and most voters will support this.

I believe one way to beat this inflation will be to invest in volatility and there will be more ways to do this over time.

I think another way maybe leveraged bonds, or using leverage to buy assets and letting inflation pay the debt or bankruptcy, maybe both.

It would surprise me if there is more fraud and theft involved in this inflationary outcome and maybe tolerated because of politics and no one really wants to raise tax or cut benefits to retirees or anyone else.

Because the rules are changing or not enforced it will be tough to be a successful investor in these times.

I think one way people survive is owning gold, going offshore both with capital and with body. Being in another jurisdiction will be helpful for lower cost of living and protection of assets and body too. Even healthcare will be done more and more offshore. 

I dont have much more to say on this  subject.

Good luck, happy hunting. 

Latest episode with Matt Smith/Dave Callom, Coffee and a mike.

 

The latest episode on Coffee and a mike. 

I enjoy Dave Collum and Matt Smith was really good and has a lot of how I see the world.

They even talked about Chase Hughes, and his comments on whats going on in the world. 

Here it is https://open.spotify.com/episode/1bpZ9Rr5WvL87K1S4ddZUQ?si=UF29_bW3R4q5meL_q9T7hA

I like Spotify,  but its also on YouTube. 

It has many out there views on where this is all going and explains why more men and women are dropping out of society, and leaving the Western World.  Or people are leaving to live on the edges of the Empire. 

Interesting conversation. 

Good luck.

End of the week, thought of the day.

 

End of the week and thought of the day, as the Brit in the Philippines likes to say, a nice chap to say the least.

It seems many people are despondent or the recent elections in the US. It looks like voters are making sure liberty takes a back seat now and for awhile. 

It seems all over the Western World, we have a loss of liberty, safety and much more inflation than what many can accept. 

Theres even a giving up I see in the younger generation, although I see people of all ages migrating to Latin America,  Eastern Europe, even Russia now. 

You also see more migration to the Middle East, and Asia and possibly even China. 

You still see the great unwashed trying to get into America if they can, and its still tolerated by many.

Although I say that there are now many Europeans coming to North America from Europe and the UK.

In other news,  the US share markets continue to make new highs, including the Dow Jones Industrial Averages.

Most people dont talk about the Dow, much less the Dogs of the Dow. 

Now with the forever wars we will need more Industrial bases here in the US which isnt bad but will be different from the past.

I continue to see many expats make dumb decisions in the East, mainly North Americans, which is unfortunate, because its so easy to succeed their, much like our ancestors did in the past.

I also see more YouTube influencers doing well and showing ways to succeed there and how simple it can be and how more young people are figuring this out.

Im not sure what to make of this but governments in the West will have to change and adapt or they will lose there older retirees and the younger generation that needs to take over and make things better.

Im not sure how it will turn out but some countries will will adapt and advance liberty and prosperity others wont and will continue to decline. 

Thats the thought of the day, 

Good Luck,  Happy Hunting.