2033, THE Social Security cliff.

 

There has been more news articles and YouTube posts on the Social Security cliff thats coming in ten years or less,2033 is the projection year I see.

Thats when only 80% or less of Social Security benefits can be paid out of projected tax revenues. 

The idea is over time the population will decline or the working age population will decline and without immigration there will be fewer tax payors to pay tax for current and future benefits. 

Even if you had immigration it wouldn't really fix this problem because your just poaching workers from other countries and those countries lose workers and tax revenues. 

Having said that there is no incentive for politicians to cut benefits unless there is a crisis and so far there isnt a crisis.  Even Covid didnt appear to create a crisis voters would repond too.

So I would say benefits will be paid, lowered in small amounts until the crisis hits.

That might create a rising price level or inflation that governments wont know how to respond too, but they wont cut benefits until the crisis hits, that maybe a bond crisis, or funding crisis or it maybe a USD crisis Im not sure.

Looking at Japan for what may happen, so far its a Yen crisis just not yet.

The USDJPY rate is at 155 or so, I haven't looked recently. 

So far interest rates in Japan are still under 3% but are inching up, and so far no crisis. 

Interest rates in the US are getting close to 5% but still no crisis.

I dont think the US economy or world economy can sustain double digit interest rates like in the seventies and eighties. 

While I think Social Security will survive, what it pays out will be much less over time and the social contract will be changed, probably by the younger voters.

Even with AI raising the standard of living for most people we will not know till much latter if western countries can not be forced to cut these programs. 

We are starting to see the cracks in Europe so if I had to go by what I see there, there will be cuts and higher inflation and more of a break down in society. 

Japan looks to be different. There seems to be more social cohesion there so maybe there will be less of a breakdown and theres more of an understanding of technology and how it can be used for everyone s benefit too.

China might be another place to look for clues too.

In the US I expect more of a colonial comback, where people work for themselves into retirement and they will work with new technology like the Chinese do.

Im not as pessimistic as some so expect the market will readjust to this new reality with some bumps in the process but dont expect the dystopian nightmare many do.

I think it is possible for a dystopian nightmare but there will be opportunities for people to check out and live in countries where things will be less interesting as the Chinese like to say.

Thanks for reading. 

Markets are closed today,,listening to inflation/deflation debates.

 

Sense markets are closed today, except futures prices, I have been thinking more and more about the inflation/deflation debates, that have been going on in the market places of ideas lately. 

I fall somewhere in the middle, where I think we will have a deflation scare and bonds could go up quite a bit. So far I have been wrong but havent lost much because the credits I own haven't gone down much.

I have been shorting treasury securitys so have made money there, but thats about it.

Ultimately I believe we will see rising inflation to pay for the healthcare needs of retiring Americans and the same for pensions,  both private and public. 

Most pensions are underfunded in the US and most of the Western World. 

Governments will have to compete for saving and capital of the world driving up intrest rates and I believe inflation from these policies. 

Only time will tell.

It seems most market participants believe this will result in deflation or at least disinflation over time and thus inflation wont happen. 

I believe its possible this is an outcome but am starting to lean the other way where most Governments will inflate money supplies to pay for these programs and most voters will support this.

I believe one way to beat this inflation will be to invest in volatility and there will be more ways to do this over time.

I think another way maybe leveraged bonds, or using leverage to buy assets and letting inflation pay the debt or bankruptcy, maybe both.

It would surprise me if there is more fraud and theft involved in this inflationary outcome and maybe tolerated because of politics and no one really wants to raise tax or cut benefits to retirees or anyone else.

Because the rules are changing or not enforced it will be tough to be a successful investor in these times.

I think one way people survive is owning gold, going offshore both with capital and with body. Being in another jurisdiction will be helpful for lower cost of living and protection of assets and body too. Even healthcare will be done more and more offshore. 

I dont have much more to say on this  subject.

Good luck, happy hunting. 

Latest episode with Matt Smith/Dave Callom, Coffee and a mike.

 

The latest episode on Coffee and a mike. 

I enjoy Dave Collum and Matt Smith was really good and has a lot of how I see the world.

They even talked about Chase Hughes, and his comments on whats going on in the world. 

Here it is https://open.spotify.com/episode/1bpZ9Rr5WvL87K1S4ddZUQ?si=UF29_bW3R4q5meL_q9T7hA

I like Spotify,  but its also on YouTube. 

It has many out there views on where this is all going and explains why more men and women are dropping out of society, and leaving the Western World.  Or people are leaving to live on the edges of the Empire. 

Interesting conversation. 

Good luck.

End of the week, thought of the day.

 

End of the week and thought of the day, as the Brit in the Philippines likes to say, a nice chap to say the least.

It seems many people are despondent or the recent elections in the US. It looks like voters are making sure liberty takes a back seat now and for awhile. 

It seems all over the Western World, we have a loss of liberty, safety and much more inflation than what many can accept. 

Theres even a giving up I see in the younger generation, although I see people of all ages migrating to Latin America,  Eastern Europe, even Russia now. 

You also see more migration to the Middle East, and Asia and possibly even China. 

You still see the great unwashed trying to get into America if they can, and its still tolerated by many.

Although I say that there are now many Europeans coming to North America from Europe and the UK.

In other news,  the US share markets continue to make new highs, including the Dow Jones Industrial Averages.

Most people dont talk about the Dow, much less the Dogs of the Dow. 

Now with the forever wars we will need more Industrial bases here in the US which isnt bad but will be different from the past.

I continue to see many expats make dumb decisions in the East, mainly North Americans, which is unfortunate, because its so easy to succeed their, much like our ancestors did in the past.

I also see more YouTube influencers doing well and showing ways to succeed there and how simple it can be and how more young people are figuring this out.

Im not sure what to make of this but governments in the West will have to change and adapt or they will lose there older retirees and the younger generation that needs to take over and make things better.

Im not sure how it will turn out but some countries will will adapt and advance liberty and prosperity others wont and will continue to decline. 

Thats the thought of the day, 

Good Luck,  Happy Hunting. 

AI, UBI, SWFs and the industrial revolution.

 The industrial revolution really shook up the then current society.

The elites of the time, the Counts, Lords, and other Royalty elites of those times would not seen what was coming into the future.

The landed gentry, would not have expected the end of slavery, serfdom, and total changes of how wealth and status would change.

Its similiar with the AI revolution, there maybe great unemployment with AI that could lead to resentment and then high wealth taxes and then UBI.

Which could lead withe wealthy elites moving there capital and themselves offshore, it already has.

Most US tech companies are domiciled in Ireland where they pay little if any tax. If you has tax, they will tax there wealth and leave and give political donations to politicians to be left alone.

You may be able to fund UBI through SWF, or Sovereign Wealth Funds, like what is in Norway, UAE, and other countries. It may make sense for governments to treat information like the way oil is and taxed and put in a SWF and be used for the benefit of society, like education, possibly UBI or other things.

AI will probably change how we are governed. 

If elites can buy there way out of problems like they did pre industrial society we may have to change how we see and practice government.

If elites have first mover status and can suck up wealth before people understand how wealth creation has changed with this new technology, then can buy there way out and bribe politicians to give us UBI where we just spend the income at tech companies then its just a wealth transfer like during covid and could make inflation a bigger problem. 

I think we cant stop AI but could find a better way to tax tech companies for the free to low cost way they capture our data and use it against us and get first mover advantage.

Maybe thats through citizens owning our data and we get paid for it, maybe through UBI. Or other ways.

I want to transition to a society with more liberty and less dependence on UBI or and government hand outs that creates dependency. 

I dont know how it all unfolds but the cat is out of the bag especially in the US, China, probably Russia too.

Id guess the EU will be one of the first big losers but not all Europe. 

Not Switzerland, or Norway and a few other places where tax is low and culture still binds the citizens to continue to cooperate, IE high trust society, maybe Sweden but im not sure and Denmark too, it seems to me to becoming unglued their.

Im even thinking places in the South Pacific will be ok because no one cares about those places except maybe China and the US and to a limited extent Russia. 

In the end I expect this will be a huge wealth transfer to any who understand whats going on and plans for it and takes advantage of it, which unfortunately wony be everyone, especially in the Western middle class.

Good Luck.

Financial fraud is on the rise.

 

Financial fraud seems to be rising at an accelerating pace.

I just had an charge on one of my ATM cards that I rarely use, and the account balance is under 100 bucks.

I have multiple accounts for this vary reason. I can transfer money from my various accounts and use othet ATM accounts to spend or withdraw money if I need to cancel a card and have a new one sent out.

This seems to be happening more. This account is rarely used so I was surprised someone got access to it.

When I called the bank and talked to the fraud department, they told me the charge was made online and an address that wasnt mine was used. So the fraud department canceled the card and allowed me to dispute the charge and wait a few weeks to have the money refunded. 

Im just curious how my account was accessed.  Its not really important though, even if I rarely use it. I just canceled the card and be more aware of how I use all my cards and keep track of charges that dont make sense.

I cant add much accept to say the US Treasury Department has said with AI technology, there is and will be more fraud, and they invited all the high street banks into a discussion on what they plan to do to combat all this.

Im starting to think it may make sense to only buy with credit cards as its easier to dispute charges and get refunds and you seem to get more protection from fraud compared to ATM accounts, although thats changing. 

My other idea is to store some wealth offline in the form of gold and silver coins, and get some anonymous protection from criminals and other enemies. 

It maybe worth while to have and use USD dollar coins, and BTC stored on cold wallets, just to have some privacy and something to fall back on if you need to leave your legal jurisdiction and your banks, brokerages are frozen or just cant access to them for legal reasons.

These things like fraud, getting debanked are happening more and more in the Western World, and some other countries are copying Western World laws and customs,  which is sad.

The loss of liberty in the Western World is sad to see and explains why more and more people are leaving the West to be in lower cost of living places and to store money in banks like Singapore or even Switzerland if you can get an account there, or even the Caribbean. 

Even countries like Georgia are becoming fashionable to access places like Russia if your in the West or your Russian and need to transfer wealth from the West, or your stuck using BTC or USD dollar coins which works too.

Good luck our there.

I found a bike path in Alamogordo, NM.

 

I found a bike path just off Senic Dr. 

Its just off this green water tower, if thats what it is.

This bike path is in Alamogordo, New Mexico. 

It reminds me of the many bike paths in Phoenix, AZ. Mainly im thinking of Peoria, Sun City, AZ and the other county I cant remember. 

Anyways on these bike paths you can ride for miles, go bike camping in many places, and shop at Walmart, the Dollar store and many other places then go wild camping in the desert where few people bother you.

In AZ during covid they even put up bathrooms on the bike paths.

They look the same as this one I found on the bike path here in Alamogordo, NM.

Near this one is a place your car or park if you have one and a few picnic tables to either rest at, cook your food or just rest 

You could camp out there before or after the sun went down or just in the desert where no one could see you.

You could hide your bivvy sack and backpack then ride into town and hang out in the library and charge your phone, use the bathroom and if your disposed ask for help getting food stamps, a shower and place to have ID sent to if it is an issue.

My friend in Guatemala told me thats what he did in California when he was homeless, then just lived in the desert until he left for Guatemala.

This place place, bike path even has a bridge into the local neighborhoods,  its pretty cool.

The whole area is cool and quiet and you can hear the insects at night. 

I bet it would be an interesting way to live for a few months if you had too.

I bring it up because like in Sun City, AZ you see so many homeless people just camping in the desert nowdays,  its sad to see anyone live like this especially older women,  which I saw when I was their riding my bike all over the place including the gold dealer.

Here in Alamogordo I dont think theres any gold dealer to sell you coins to for cash.

Anyhow I thought it was a nice discovery to write about and talk about.

Theres even people in Quartzsite, AZ who camp in the desert ride there bike or electric bike into the local fast food joint and work for three or four months and save up money for there next adventure. 

You could do that here even Sun City, or here and then save money get on a plane use your passport and start again in Cambodia or Philippines. 

Good Luck, Happy Hunting. 

More strategies to protect your wealth.

 

Asset protection is talked about a lot nowadays.

Its usually aimed at wealthy people and usually the strategies are borderline illegal to not practical when it comes to taxes, but it makes the lawyer's wealthy and the clients have a false sense of security.

Usually the lawyer's will suggest LLCs offshore or domestic with trusts thrown in for good measure. 

  Often the trusts dont help and the offshore corporations dont really offer any privacy for North Americans.

Many times clients are surprised theres no privacy and governments can reach out and touch them.

They often pay tens of thousands of dollars if not more and find out they are not complient with reporting requirements and taxes.

Sometimes when they return to the US they are greeted with Treasury officials to IRS officials and detained for hours while they learn of there lawyer's mistakes and how they the client has little recourse. 

Anyhow the easiest of solutions is to just get the assets out of jurisdiction into either a bank account in your name or a gold storage facility where the account may not even be a reportable event. 

Owning real estate isnt a reportable event for most people and at least you can live in it, possibly rent it out for income.

Usually youd want residency so you can easily open bank account manage real estate expenses and taxes through the account.

Not to mention you can live work or play with most residencys, which can come in handy if your home country is suing you or its just unpleasant to live in and do business in.

If you still have a US LLC you can still do business and get credit cards and banking through it and the account would be in a corporate name if thats needed.

If the clients are all Americans easy to comply, if clients are offshore maybe another entity maybe called for. As always get legal help and stay compliant with all tax laws of your home country and residency. 

These are just a few ideas for average North Americans and getting residency isnt as costly as in the past so can be cheaper than offshore trusts and corporations ect.

Its also simplier and easier to manage time wise and money wise. With the exception of lawyer's for residency although not always needed if in Europe or parts of Asia like Japan. 

Theres more to these things and just a few ideas to get out of the trap of North America. 

Happy Hunting. 

How older people protect their bank accounts from medical debts, bank garnishments and other creditors.

 

Nowdays with high hospital bills and no insurance, people end up with massive bills they cant pay. Its now similar with credit card debt 

Many older folks now use debt to there benefit knowing its different for creditors to freeze a bank account or sieze the check.

How they protect themselves isnt really difficult or hard. They use the law to there benefit.

For one thing assets in a 401K are protected by ERISA laws. Even in bankruptcy they cant be taken. Its similiar for ROTH accounts, the money cant be taken in bankruptcy either.

So older folks use those benefits to there benefit by going through bankruptcy or having the creditor writing off the debt. 

In some States the statute of limitations is two years, like Iowa. If after two years a creditor comes after you, you can just take them to court and get damages for whatever injury you endured. 

Of course all States are different and theres exceptions sometimes so you need to do your research.

Another way the creditors can get money is by putting a lien on your bank account. The thing is social security is protected by law and banks know this.

The federal law says you can have up to two months of a government pension check, social security check, and other pension checks like rail rode pensions and State pensions. 

So if you have 1k check you can have 2k protected from seizure. 

Most creditors know this but if they dont the banks do, if there still is a seizure or mistake you can file documents at the court and get your money back, but it takes time.

So its useful to have cash, folding currency hidden away somewhere or an offshore bank properly set up and reported to uncle sam. If its over10k it needs to be reported.

Wealthy people have bank accounts set up abroad to protect themselves from creditors and other bad actors.

Nowdays most offshore banks dont want North Americans as clients because of compliance with uncle sam and if they do the deposits need to be substantial usually 250K or more.

Obviously theres exceptions to this rule if you have a second passport or residency set up somewhere, then its usually a few hundred dollars to set up a local USD account or USD account. 

More and more expats/ retirees are doing this and using credit to there advantage. 

If you need to hide cash from creditors you can always withdraw cash to be under the limit,  or buy gold coins stored onshore or offshore or just in your shoe box. 

Off course if you get into a lawsuit youll have to disclose these things, or lie under court, which I dont recommend or suggest.

What many do if it comes to it is get out of jurisdiction and have a friend or lawyer handle it.

There are law firms who handle debt negotiation for low prices and NGOs to.

They usually specialize in helping elderly clients but also help with medical debts no matter the age.

A lawyer can help you disguise your assets without breaking the law, or get caught up in fraudulent conveyances. 

As always theres more to this but I just wanted to offer a few ideas to help people survive and prosper as the empire declines or maybe its just the beginning. 

We still have a lot of liberties in North America so we are better off than most to survive and prosper come what may.

Good Luck, Happy Hunting. 

Mike Green, oversavings, Covered Call ETFs,

 

Mike Green, from Simplify https://www.simplify.us/ just put out a new article. 

If you can get on his mailing list, I believe its on Sub stack.

He wrote a pretty good article about how older Americans are over saving in their retirement accounts and brokerage accounts to meet their retirement needs when they retire.

All this causes a rising share market and problems with younger Americans not being able to enter the housing market and even employment market.

He pointed out how you can invest 1 million dollars into 5% long government treasury bonds, get 5% the rest of your life and not spend your principle, add in social security and the fact when you retire your cost of living goes down and inflation maybe over stated, which has lead to people who dont even spend all their social security or even their private pensions.

All this has lead to over valued share markets and under valued bond markets, which of course creates opportunities for some.

What I find interesting is I see this reflected in people's actions. I see people retire overseas for a fraction of the cost of living in North America. 

I see them live on much less than there social security checks and actually save money and add to there savings. 

Which brings up covered call ETFs and there high income, pay out dividends.

I see people buying them to get the income and retire from the employment market. I see this a lot with younger employees, as Mike points out theres less incentives for the younger generation to be productive in the employment markets.

They are not able to earn enough from jobs to buy houses, save for retirement so in many cases drop out of the market and live on state aid, or built up investments and live in low cost places like Latin America or Asia.  Or in vans ect.

All these incentives have distorted peopls incentive to be productive, which benefits older Americans which causes them to save more which distorts markets more.

All this causes flows into share markets, which incentives gambling in shares amongst younger Americans or gambling in general. 

It also seems to increase addictions and anxiety among younger men and women.  I would also say all age groups are loneier than ever, despite the abundance we have created in North America. 

Its all very sad and may result in disaster in the next few years. I mean a recession, and share market crash or long term sell off.

Im still optimistic about the future for most people and only time will tell.

Good Luck. 

Philippines, great places to live cheap.

 

I just saw a video from one of my favorite YouTube bloggers.

He was in Manila, visiting his friend,  an American Doctor I believe. 

He showed a nice condo area, I cant remember the name of it, but in the facility there are condos, two bedrooms for 400,00USD and up. 

It had a huge swimming pool on the ground floor, it was outside.  It had a nice gym, and in the neighborhood a bank, Starbucks and nice grocery store.

It reminded me of nice places in Guatemala. Where you can walk to everywhere and its safe, not much traffic and easy to park a car or motorcycle if you want to buy one.

As the YouTube gentleman said, 400 plus utilities and food and immigration fees would be under a thousand USD per month and unlike the province you have everything you need. 

It got me to thinking how much everything in the west is over priced. 

He even mentioned the condo would be 50usd just to buy it, not much.

I had forgotten how much the Philippine peso has fallen during the current war. Inflation in the Philippines is about the highest in Asia right now.

Most people will not believe me but in the less nice areas you can rent gor 80 to 160 be in an ok area, close to malls, wet markets street food ect and live on 500 to 600 a month, and build up an online business and when you get a good month fly to the beaches of the province and just relax for a few days or weeks at a resort.

Of course most North Americans wont do that, although you are hearing more and more are making the move or at least thinking about it.

Similar can be done in Cambodia but its not as developed but the costs can be lower and a little easier to make the adjustments. 

It takes time to make the cultural adjustments and the Philippines can be easier partly because of English and history and culture. 

Sometimes im surprised more people arent doing this but think over time many will especially in Europe because governments their aren't giving people reasonable chances to prosper and live in peace.

Thats it for now.

Happy Hunting. 

Escaping the matrix is getting easier and cheaper despite the inflation spike.

 

I see more and more videos of North Americans leaving Canada and United States living in Asia usually or even Brazil, I even see Brazilians and Mexicans living in Asia too.

Its never been easier and cheaper to get on a plane and go to where you are treated best from a tax and liberty point of view.

I know quite a few people now and from ten years ago who went outside there country of birth and teach conversational English or college course English lessons, college degree or not.

An American acquaintance of mine was from the southern United States, an exutive from corporate america, quite his job went to  Brazil, taught English, then started his own online business,  got Brazilian citizenship, then as he got older sold up and moved to Thailand, I haven't heard from him sense. I was on his email list.

Anyway I know a few men and women who still teach English online for small or large amounts of money and prefer it to living in America or the EU, UK.

Which brings me tothe few men and women who sometimes live on 300 to 500 a month in Thailand, Philippines, even Cambodia and Indonesia. 

Sense I dont get comments on this website ill talk about it.

You would be surprised how many people still live on this amount and build up sidelines business in addition to teaching English online and dont end up in poverty living on the streets of Manila, which still happens sometimes even more than id have thought.

There are still a few websites that will help you get clients for teaching online, no college degree or anything. The pay is low usually 12 an hour sometimes five an hour in Eastern Europe.

Even if you work part time its enough to pay rent, visas, and food until you build up the income to save some money or just spend more.

If you combine that with dividend income ETFs or a small pension its enough to escape the Matrix/ rat race.

Nowdays you see more people doing that in the US and living in their vans and when they have saved enough and built up an online income, sell the van and get the passport and leave for Latin America or Asia or the Pacific region.

Teaching English online still works which does surprise me but a private tutor whos a human still beats AI tech at least for now.

Good luck.

Polynesia, Philippines, Saipan, Micronesia

 

I think all these places are in the Pacific, or what I understand to be Micronesia, or North Pacific and South Pacific. 

Sense I was a young boy, I have always been interested in these places, especially the Marshall Islands.  I remember seeing a tv episode on old pictures and videos of soldiers in the Marshall Islands and people swimming in water that was clear as day.

Every sense I have wanted to visit there and learn about the history and culture there. 

Ive only been to Philippines and can say its much more different that Thailand or Cambodia, even the language Tagalog is pretty different.

I suppose the clear blue water was very attractive to a young boy so thats what I liked about it. Also I never felt a part of American culture,  I always felt I was on the outside looking in.

Anyways when Im in the province of the Philippines I have always liked swimming in the sea and seeing sea horses and other tropical fish.

Unlike others I like the food in the Philippines so that was nice too.

If you dont eat much of imported food your cost of living can be pretty cheap.

My friends in Saipan say the same.

The cultural things there are different than North America, people are really close there and theres little privacy.

If you stay in the Philippines long term you will learn that. You will need to be a part of your community or you will not fit in.

I think I liked the patience people have there, and the saving face they have, but it takes time getting used to 

Id like to visit more places in the Pacific next time I get out their. I look forward to visiting Saipan possibly living their.

As the American Empire starts to decline Saipan looks more interesting place to live in. Even with all the storms they have. The infrastructure looks better in Saipan than the Philippines but even Luzan is looking better and better everytime I go back their 

Even the healthcare options in Manila are better than twenty years ago.

I think as technology progress it will be easier and easier to live their, it may fall off the map of the general public but that maybe an advantage to some.

I see more young people from all over the Western world including Russian s going to these places in the Pacific. 

I wish I had more to say about the Marshall Islands but can only go by what I have read about it.

It has similar problems like most of the West, young people leaving for better opportunities, depopulation, not very good medical care. High costs for importing food and other goods, so not convenient.  I have heard you can order from Amazon have it delivered and it gets there in a month or two. Thats not bad compared with twenty years ago.

Its similiar to the Philippines,  you can order from Amazon but its a pain on the neck and youll pay taxes. 

Almost better to order have it delivered to Saipan pick it up there, then fly back to the Philippines. 

Youll need high income to do that but more and more are doing the planning logistics and doing it.

Good luck, and happy hunting.