Why is gold in a bear market 2021?
I want to make a comment on gold and why its down 15% from its peak in August 2020 high of 2075.00USD per ounce.
I believe the answer lies in interest rates. As interest rates on the 10 year treasury bond hit a low of .4% to .55 back in August of 2020, gold was at 2075.00 per ounce. As of today 18/02/2021 the ten year treasury is yielding 1.3%.
I believe interest rates and the price of gold are inversely correlated. So as interest rates go down the price of gold goes up and as rates rise and the economy grows or reflates gold goes down.
As of now the share markets of the world are at all time highs and going higher so I expect interest rates to continue going up and the price of gold to trend down.
I expect the price of commodities to continue going up priced in dollars and the USD to continue going down.
I expect Tech shares as well as Bitcoin to continue going up, and most of the worlds shares markets will continue going up and being overvalued for the time being.
I believe the reason for golds downward trend is its viewed as a currency and when the worlds economies go up as well as share markets and interest rates gold usually goes down.
As we have seen in the recent past gold and the USD can rally together at the same time. I expect by the end of the summer to late Fall we will see a correction in markets interest rates and then another financial panic and the worlds Central Banks will reflate there currencies to re avert a recession depression thereby causing a panic into USD Dollars and Gold and the bull market in gold will continue.
So to recap as long as growth continues in the Western World we will see gold trend down as well as the USD and Bitcoin and shares of the developing world and the Western World go up. Intel we get another panic I think this will continue. I believe by late Summer or Fall we will get another panic into the USD dollar then Gold will shine again.
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